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Corum FKRizespor

Fri 16 Oct 2026, 17:0016 Oct, 17:00

15Probabilities6Priced7Edges76%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 21:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Level on 10 points, Çorum FK and Rizespor arrive from opposite directions: Çorum won 3-0 at Gaziantep in Burak Yılmaz's first match, while Rizespor lost 0-3 at home to Fenerbahçe but are unbeaten away.

A tight, low-scoring first half looks the likeliest shape, and level at half-time at 2.3 is a price worth taking, with Rizespor to draw or win at 1.73 also holding up. Çorum at 2 to win asks more than their home form justifies.

Context

The main sporting factor is Çorum's coaching change and its first home outing, set against a Rizespor side whose away results have run ahead of its shot numbers. Neither club has a confirmed injury or availability issue, so the conditions are ordinary for a mid-table Süper Lig fixture.

Burak Yılmaz was appointed on a three-year deal in the September international break and opened with a 3-0 win at Gaziantep FK on 11 October, with goals from Cengiz Ünder, Alexandros Kyziridis and Markus Karlsbakk. Friday is his first home match in charge, so Çorum's shape, pressing and selection are still being settled. The new-manager effect cuts both ways: Çorum lost two of their three home league games before the change, and one away win is a thin basis for assuming the improvement travels.
- Çorum FK agreed a three-year deal with Burak Yılmaz during the September international break, replacing Uğur Uçar.
- Yılmaz's first match in charge ended 3-0 at Gaziantep FK on 11 October, with goals from Cengiz Ünder, Alexandros Kyziridis and Markus Karlsbakk.
- Uğur Uçar left by mutual agreement after a 2-1 home defeat to Alanyaspor, with home defeats and communication issues reported among the reasons.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 21:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Rizespor's season splits sharply by venue: 10 points from four away league games (three wins, one draw) but three home defeats without scoring, the latest 0-3 to Fenerbahçe on 10 October. Playing away suits a side whose better results have come on the road, which tempers the usual home-advantage reading for Çorum. The counterpoint is sample and opposition: Rizespor's home defeats were to Samsunspor, Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe, and their away points came against mid-table and lower sides.
- Rizespor have won three and drawn one of four away league games this season, scoring seven and conceding three.
- At home they have lost all three league games without scoring, conceding six (0-2 Samsunspor, 0-1 Alanyaspor, 0-3 Fenerbahçe).
- The 0-3 home defeat to Fenerbahçe on 10 October left Rizespor on 10 points and ninth in the table.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 21:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Çorum averaged 5.4 shots on target at home against 3.3 for visitors, a profile that fits a side scoring 1.43 and conceding 0.86 per home game across that seven-match window. Rizespor have been outshot on their travels, so Çorum should see plenty of the ball. The two home defeats inside the run show territory has not always turned into points.
- Çorum's home split covers seven matches from 7 April to 19 September 2026: 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats.
- In that sample they averaged 14.57 shots and 5.43 on target, against 8.71 shots and 3.29 on target faced.
- Home corners averaged 6.14 for and 3.0 against, with 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per match.
In those four away matches Rizespor scored seven and conceded three, keeping two clean sheets, while averaging 4.25 shots on target against 5.5 faced. They also collected one red card in that run. The points have come without territorial control, so the record has leaned on finishing and defending rather than dominance.
- Rizespor's away split covers four league matches from 15 August to 20 September 2026: three wins, one draw, seven scored and three conceded.
- In that sample they averaged 11 shots and 4.25 shots on target, against 18.5 shots and 5.5 on target faced.
- They kept two clean sheets and collected one red card across those four away matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double Chance First HalfUncertainty band: Strong lean

Corum FK or Draw

1.25fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 80%

−4.0ppshort

First halves have been low-scoring, though Çorum's home record in the opening period is slightly stronger. Both teams score relatively few goals before half-time, making a level first 45 minutes the most likely single outcome.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 80%

−14.0ppshort

An average of roughly one to one-and-a-quarter first-half goals makes at least one goal before the break likely.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.73fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 57.8%

−4.8ppshort

Both teams' home and away splits point to around two to three goals, with Çorum's recent games especially open.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 59.9%

−7.9ppshort

Both teams have found the net regularly, and Rizespor have scored in every away game.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Corum FK

2.00fair 2.56

BetBugs 39% · Market 50%

−11.0ppshort

Çorum's stronger home scoring and the lift from a new manager give them the narrowest edge over a Rizespor side that has been better on its travels.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.00
The read
Çorum's stronger home scoring and the lift from a new manager give them the narrowest edge over a Rizespor side that has been better on its travels.
- Çorum at home: 3W-2D-2L in 7, averaging 1.43 scored and 0.86 conceded
- Rizespor away: 3W-1D-0L in 4, scoring 7 and conceding 3
- Çorum overall 7W-4D-4L with 1.93 scored and 1.13 conceded per game
- Burak Yılmaz won his first match in charge 3-0 at Gaziantep on 11 October
BetBugs · Match WinnerCorum FKMarket price2.00Estimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Both teams score relatively few goals before half-time, making a level first 45 minutes the most likely single outcome.
- Çorum first-half goals average 0.8 for and 0.47 against overall
- Rizespor first-half goals average 0.625 for and 0.375 against overall
- Rizespor first-half away games average just one goal in total
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawMarket price2.30Estimated chance47%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams scoring modestly after the break, a level second half is the most likely single result.
- Çorum home second-half total averages 1.0 goal
- Rizespor away second-half total averages 1.5 goals
- Seven of Çorum's 15 matches have seen second-half goals at both ends or none
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Çorum's stronger home scoring and the lift from a new manager give them the narrowest edge over a Rizespor side that has been better on its travels. Rizespor's unbeaten away record and healthy away scoring make them genuine contenders despite three home defeats.
- Çorum at home: 3W-2D-2L in 7, averaging 1.43 scored and 0.86 conceded
- Rizespor away: 3W-1D-0L in 4, scoring 7 and conceding 3
- Rizespor away: 3W-1D-0L, 7 scored and 3 conceded in 4
- Çorum lost 2 of 7 home matches
BetBugs · Double ChanceCorum FK or RizesporEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
First halves have been low-scoring, though Çorum's home record in the opening period is slightly stronger. Both teams score relatively few goals before half-time, making a level first 45 minutes the most likely single outcome.
- Çorum first-half home goals: 0.86 for, 0.43 against
- Rizespor first-half away goals: 0.75 for, 0.25 against
- Çorum first-half goals average 0.8 for and 0.47 against overall
- Rizespor first-half goals average 0.625 for and 0.375 against overall
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfCorum FK or DrawMarket price1.25Estimated chance76%

Goals6 outcomes · top 66%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Both teams' home and away splits point to around two to three goals, with Çorum's recent games especially open.
- Çorum home games average 2.29 total goals (1.43 for, 0.86 against)
- Rizespor away games average 2.5 total goals (1.75 for, 0.75 against)
- Çorum's last three matches produced 3, 3 and 8 goals
- Çorum overall average 3.07 total goals per match
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.73Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams have found the net regularly, and Rizespor have scored in every away game.
- Çorum scored in 13 of 15 matches
- Rizespor scored in all four away games, netting seven
- Çorum failed to score in just one of seven home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.67Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rizespor have conceded only three in four away games, which weighs against Çorum scoring twice.
- Çorum home average of 1.43 goals is below the 1.5 line
- Rizespor away defence concedes just 0.75 per game
- Çorum scored 0 or 1 in two of their last three home outings
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalCorum FK under 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rizespor's recent scoring has been limited and Çorum's home defence is reasonably tight.
- Rizespor have scored only three goals in their last six matches
- Çorum keep 0.86 goals against at home
- Rizespor scored seven in four away games but three of those came in one burst across games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalRizespor under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
An average of roughly one to one-and-a-quarter first-half goals makes at least one goal before the break likely.
- Çorum home first-half total goals average 1.29
- Rizespor away first-half total averages 1.0
- Çorum overall first-half totals average 1.27 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.25Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Çorum's home second halves have been quiet, and the combined average sits near one goal.
- Çorum home second-half total averages 1.0 goal
- Çorum overall second-half goals 1.13 for, 0.67 against
- Rizespor overall second-half goals 0.5 for, 1.0 against
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats4 outcomes · top 60%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' combined corner counts have generally stayed under eleven.
- Çorum overall corners 5.2 for, 4.47 against
- Rizespor overall corners 5.0 for, 4.625 against
- Rizespor away games average just 8.25 corners combined
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderUnder 10.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Çorum's home matches have been relatively low on total shots, which favours the under.
- Çorum home total shots average 23.28
- Çorum overall shots 13.13 for, 12.2 against
- Corum's opponents average 8.71 shots at Corum's ground
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderUnder 29.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' on-target totals average below the line when combined.
- Çorum overall shots on target 5.27 for, 3.8 against
- Rizespor overall shots on target 5.0 for, 5.125 against
- Çorum home matches average 8.71 shots on target combined
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderUnder 10.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages are below five, favouring the under.
- Çorum overall yellows 2.07 for, 1.53 against
- Rizespor overall yellows 2.0 for, 1.71 against
- Çorum's home opponents average just 1.14 yellows
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%