Liga NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

CD Suchitepequez1Guastatoya1

HT 0–1Thu 10 Sept 2026, 02:10 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 04:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Guastatoya are the value pick to win away at Suchitepequez (42% model vs 31% implied, +11 points), and over 2.5 goals is also attractive (55% vs 45.5%, +9.5 points).

Avoid the first-half over 0.5 goals market as the odds are too short relative to the model.

Context

CD Suchitepequez is a Liga Nacional side with a recent record of four losses in five matches.
Suchitepequez lost to Malacateco 0-2 on 2026-09-06, Aurora 2-3 on 2026-08-22, Marquense 1-2 on 2026-08-16, and Deportivo San Pedro 0-3 on 2026-08-09. Their only win in that stretch was a 3-2 home victory over Cobán Imperial on 2026-08-29. This poor run suggests defensive issues, as they conceded at least two goals in each of those defeats. Guastatoya may look to exploit that vulnerability, though Suchitepequez's home win in their last match shows they can still compete.
- Lost 0-2 to Malacateco on 2026-09-06.
- Lost 2-3 to Aurora on 2026-08-22.
- Lost 1-2 to Marquense on 2026-08-16.
- Lost 0-3 to Deportivo San Pedro on 2026-08-09.
Manuel Castañeda is the confirmed Suchitepéquez head coach for the remainder of Apertura 2026, having previously served as interim after Héctor Altamirano's dismissal.
The permanent appointment removes caretaker uncertainty and establishes Castañeda as the technical decision-maker for selection and match plan. The linked analysis outlook sees Guastatoya as the likely winner, but the coaching stability is not enough to override their stronger away form and positive head-to-head record.
- Suchitepéquez announced that Manuel Castañeda will lead its senior team for the remainder of the Apertura 2026.
- Castañeda had previously served as interim coach after Héctor Altamirano’s dismissal.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 04:14 · Europe/BucharestPrensa Librewww.prensalibre.com · 4 Sep 2026Guatefutbolguatefutbol.com · 3 Sep 2026
Guastatoya is a Liga Nacional side with three wins in their last five matches.
Guastatoya beat Cobán Imperial 1-0 away on 2026-09-06, Municipal 1-0 at home on 2026-08-15, and Malacateco 4-0 at home on 2026-08-02. They also lost to Marquense 1-2 on 2026-08-29 and Mixco 2-4 on 2026-08-23. Their recent away win and solid defensive performances in victories suggest they can be tough to break down. However, their heavy loss to Mixco shows they can be vulnerable against attacking sides.
- Won 1-0 against Cobán Imperial on 2026-09-06.
- Won 1-0 against Municipal on 2026-08-15.
- Won 4-0 against Malacateco on 2026-08-02.
Guastatoya concedes 1 goal per game on average, while Suchitepequez concedes 1.5.
Guastatoya's defensive solidity is reflected in their lower goals conceded average. They kept clean sheets in wins over Cobán Imperial, Municipal, and Malacateco. Suchitepequez, on the other hand, has conceded at least two goals in several recent matches. This difference could allow Guastatoya to control the game and limit Suchitepequez's scoring chances. However, Guastatoya's 4-2 loss to Mixco shows they can be breached by strong attacks.
- Guastatoya averages 1 goal conceded per game.
- Suchitepequez averages 1.5 goals conceded per game.
- Guastatoya kept clean sheets in three recent wins.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Guastatoya's stronger away form and positive H2H record give them the edge, though Suchitepéquez's home advantage and new coach stability keep it close.
- Guastatoya away form in Liga Nacional: 2W-1D-2L in last 5 away matches, including wins over Cobán Imperial and Aurora.
- Suchitepéquez home form in Liga Nacional: 1W-1D-3L in last 5 home matches, with losses to Marquense and Chiquimulilla.
- H2H last 5: Guastatoya won 2, Suchitepéquez won 1, 2 draws; Guastatoya has not lost to Suchitepéquez in last 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGuastatoyaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Guastatoya's away resilience and Suchitepéquez's home struggles, the away side or draw is the safer double chance.
- Suchitepéquez has lost 3 of last 5 home matches in Liga Nacional.
- Guastatoya has avoided defeat in 3 of last 5 away matches in Liga Nacional.
- H2H: Guastatoya unbeaten in last 3 meetings (2W, 1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or GuastatoyaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high draw rate at half time, making a first half draw the most likely outcome.
- Suchitepéquez first half results: 14% leading, 29% trailing, 57% drawing.
- Guastatoya first half results: 20% leading, 27% trailing, 53% drawing.
- Both teams draw at half time in over half of their matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half time and full time is a plausible but low-probability outcome given both teams' tendencies.
- Suchitepéquez draws at half time in 57% of matches.
- Guastatoya draws at half time in 53% of matches.
- Full time draw probability estimated at 26%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guastatoya's superior first half performance makes them or a draw the safer first half double chance.
- Guastatoya leads at half time in 20% of matches, draws in 53%.
- Suchitepéquez leads at half time in only 14% of matches.
- Guastatoya has a better first half record than Suchitepéquez.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or GuastatoyaEstimated chance65%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show moderate scoring and conceding tendencies, and H2H history supports a higher-scoring match.
- Suchitepéquez home matches average 2.7 total goals (1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded).
- Guastatoya away matches average 2.4 total goals (1.4 scored, 1.0 conceded).
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and H2H shows frequent BTTS outcomes.
- Suchitepéquez scored in 4 of last 5 home matches.
- Guastatoya scored in 4 of last 5 away matches.
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to score or concede in the first half, making over 0.5 first half goals likely.
- Suchitepéquez first half goals: 0.4 per match, first half goals conceded: 0.9 per match.
- Guastatoya first half goals: 0.5 per match, first half goals conceded: 0.5 per match.
- Combined first half goal average: 1.15 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring is slightly higher for both teams, but confidence is low due to limited data.
- Suchitepéquez second half goals average: 0.8 (total 1.2 - first half 0.4).
- Guastatoya second half goals average: 0.9 (total 1.4 - first half 0.5).
- Combined second half goal average: 1.7 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

No exact odds quote available for this market in the provided data.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L2-0SuchitepéquezvGuastatoyaApr 13, 2018LIG

W1-2GuastatoyavSuchitepéquezFeb 14, 2018LIG

L4-1GuastatoyavSuchitepéquezNov 15, 2017LIG

D1-1SuchitepéquezvGuastatoyaSep 10, 2017LIG

D2-2GuastatoyavSuchitepéquezMay 7, 2017LIG

3.2 goals/game avg

Recent Form