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Predictions graded

Switzerland3North Macedonia0

HT 1–0Tue 6 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions14–193%

Edges3–0100%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 20–3On targetOn target 7–0CornersCorners 8–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 23:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Group leaders Switzerland, unbeaten in 11 competitive matches and 3-0 winners in Skopje in September, host a North Macedonia side yet to take a point or score a goal in Group 1.

A Switzerland win is the sensible read, but 1.13 already assumes it. The one quoted price with room is both teams to score – No at 1.48, backed by six Switzerland clean sheets in 11 competitive matches, though Switzerland conceded in three of their five home matches since September 2025.

Context

Switzerland top Group 1 with six points from two matches, both won 3-0 away from home, and a win in Lucerne would keep them clearly in front in the race for an immediate return to League A. The home side also reached the quarter-finals of the 2026 World Cup, losing 3-1 after extra time to Argentina, so the gap to a North Macedonia side ranked well outside the top 50 rests on recent results rather than reputation alone. The counterweight is scheduling: Tuesday is Switzerland's third match inside eight days, so Murat Yakin may rotate and the tempo could differ from the two away wins.
- Switzerland top League B Group 1 with six points from two matches, both won 3-0 away from home.
- Switzerland reached the quarter-finals of the 2026 World Cup before losing 3-1 after extra time to Argentina.
- North Macedonia have taken no points from their opening three Group 1 fixtures.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 23:42 · Europe/Bucharest
Switzerland won the group's first meeting 3-0 in Skopje on 26 September, with Remo Freuler scoring on 22 minutes and Zeki Amdouni adding goals on 41 and 74. North Macedonia changed twice at half-time that night, bringing on Agon Elezi and Dimitar Mitrovski, which underlines how early the game escaped them. It matters on Tuesday because North Macedonia have shown nothing to suggest they can keep this opponent scoreless into the second half, while their own group record is three defeats without a goal. The limitation is that the first meeting was North Macedonia's home fixture, so the return swaps the conditions, and a 32,580-capacity ground was only 11,474 full.
- Switzerland won 3-0 away to North Macedonia on 26 September 2026 at the Nacionalna Arena Toše Proeski in Skopje, before a crowd of 11,474.
- Remo Freuler scored on 22 minutes, with Zeki Amdouni adding goals on 41 and 74 minutes; Zachary Athekame assisted the third.
- North Macedonia made two half-time substitutions, Agon Elezi replacing Elmin Rastoder and Dimitar Mitrovski replacing Tihomir Kostadinov.
- Daniel Schlager refereed the fixture at the Toše Proeski Arena, a ground with a capacity of 32,580.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 23:42 · Europe/BucharestMatch report of North Macedonia 0-3 Switzerlandwww.bbc.com · 26 Sep 2026Fixture details for North Macedonia v Switzerlandfootballnation.eu · 26 Sep 2026
Amdouni has three goals and one assist across Switzerland's first two Nations League matches and has taken 15 shots, more than any other player in the competition, so North Macedonia's defensive plan has to account for him above anyone else. He already scored twice in Skopje, which gives the visitors direct experience of where he receives the ball and where he shoots. Yakin has built the attack around creating those chances from central and right-side positions, and a deep North Macedonia block will be judged on how well it closes those lanes. The limitation is that he was replaced on 77 minutes against Slovenia, so his minutes in this third match of the window are not assured.
- Amdouni scored twice and set up another goal in Switzerland's 3-0 win in Skopje on 26 September, then scored again in the 3-0 win at Hampden Park on 29 September.
- His 15 shots in this Nations League season are more than any other player has taken.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 23:42 · Europe/Bucharest
North Macedonia have gone more than 500 minutes without an international goal and have lost all three Group 1 matches, including 3-0 at home to Switzerland and 2-0 in Skopje to Scotland on Friday. That blank run is the defining story of their campaign and the reason this trip to the group leaders reads as damage limitation. The forward line has already been reshuffled, with Elmin Rastoder still without an international goal in nine caps. The limitation is that two of the three defeats came against stronger opposition, so the drought has not yet been exposed by a game North Macedonia were expected to win.
- North Macedonia went into their 3 October home match against Scotland having gone more than 500 minutes without scoring for the national team.
- They lost 3-0 at home to Switzerland and 2-0 away to Slovenia in their first two Group 1 fixtures.
- Scotland led 2-0 in Skopje on 3 October, Bowie scoring early and John McGinn converting a 70th-minute penalty.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 23:42 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Switzerland

1.13fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 88.5%

−3.5ppshort

Switzerland have dominated this group and at home against a side yet to score.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.45fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 69%

−5.0ppshort

Switzerland's home scoring and North Macedonia's away concession rate point to at least three goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Switzerland have dominated this group and at home against a side yet to score.
- Switzerland are unbeaten in 11 competitive matches (8W 3D 0L).
- Switzerland have won all 5 home matches in the sample, averaging 3.0 goals.
- North Macedonia have 0 points and 0 goals in three Nations League Group 1 matches.
- Switzerland won the reverse fixture 3-0 in Skopje on 26 September.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSwitzerlandEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Switzerland often lead at the break and North Macedonia rarely score in first halves.
- Switzerland average 0.82 first-half goals overall and 1.0 at home.
- North Macedonia average 0.3 first-half goals overall and 0.4 away.
- Switzerland average 0.09 first-half goals conceded overall.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSwitzerlandEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Switzerland's scoring is weighted to the second half, and North Macedonia concede heavily after the break.
- Switzerland average 1.45 second-half goals overall and 2.0 at home.
- North Macedonia average 1.3 second-half goals conceded overall and 2.0 away.
- Switzerland average 0.36 second-half goals conceded overall.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSwitzerlandEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Switzerland have dominated this group and at home against a side yet to score. North Macedonia's best hope is a low-scoring draw, and they have drawn four of ten competitive matches.
- Switzerland are unbeaten in 11 competitive matches (8W 3D 0L).
- Switzerland have won all 5 home matches in the sample, averaging 3.0 goals.
- Switzerland drew 3 of 11 competitive matches.
- North Macedonia drew 4 of 10 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSwitzerland or DrawEstimated chance96%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Switzerland often lead at the break and North Macedonia rarely score in first halves. A level first half is plausible because North Macedonia rarely score early and Switzerland can start patiently.
- Switzerland average 0.82 first-half goals overall and 1.0 at home.
- North Macedonia average 0.3 first-half goals overall and 0.4 away.
- North Macedonia average 0.3 first-half goals and Switzerland average 0.09 first-half goals conceded.
- Switzerland have had first-half draws in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSwitzerland or DrawEstimated chance95%

Goals7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Switzerland's home scoring and North Macedonia's away concession rate point to at least three goals.
- Switzerland average 2.27 goals scored and 0.45 conceded in 11 competitive matches.
- North Macedonia average 1.9 goals conceded in 10 competitive matches and 2.6 away.
- The reverse fixture finished 3-0 to Switzerland.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Switzerland's clean-sheet rate and North Macedonia's scoreless run favor at least one side not scoring.
- North Macedonia have scored 2 goals in their last 6 matches.
- Switzerland have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches.
- North Macedonia failed to score in three Group 1 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Switzerland have scored at least twice in their recent home matches and face a weak away defense.
- Switzerland average 3.0 goals in 5 home matches.
- Switzerland scored 2+ in each of their last three home matches.
- North Macedonia average 2.6 goals conceded away.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSwitzerland over 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
North Macedonia's away scoring rate and current drought make two goals very unlikely.
- North Macedonia average 0.4 goals in 5 away matches.
- North Macedonia have not scored in three Group 1 matches.
- Switzerland have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonNorth Macedonia under 1.5Estimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
North Macedonia's long scoreless run makes a Switzerland clean sheet the likely outcome.
- North Macedonia have not scored in three Group 1 matches and went over 500 minutes without a goal.
- Switzerland have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches.
- Switzerland have 2 clean sheets in 5 home matches in the sample.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNorth Macedonia not to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
At least one first-half goal is likely given Switzerland's first-half scoring rate.
- Switzerland average 0.82 first-half goals and North Macedonia average 0.6 first-half goals conceded.
- North Macedonia average 0.3 first-half goals and Switzerland average 0.09 first-half goals conceded.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half goals are likely because Switzerland score late and North Macedonia concede after the break.
- Switzerland average 1.45 second-half goals overall and 2.0 at home.
- North Macedonia average 1.3 second-half goals conceded overall and 2.0 away.
- Switzerland average 0.36 second-half goals conceded overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
North Macedonia concede many corners, and Switzerland generate enough to push the total over.
- Switzerland average 5.18 corners and 2.91 opponent corners.
- North Macedonia average 3.0 corners and 6.9 opponent corners; away opponent corners 9.0.
- The reverse fixture had 5 corners, but North Macedonia's away matches often produce more.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Switzerland's shot volume and North Macedonia's habit of conceding shots point to a high total.
- Switzerland average 14.27 shots and 6.36 opponent shots.
- North Macedonia average 8.5 shots and 16.0 opponent shots.
- The reverse fixture had 25 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both the reverse match and recent form suggest at least nine shots on target in total.
- Switzerland average 6.36 shots on target and 2.09 opponent shots on target.
- North Macedonia average 2.6 shots on target and 5.8 opponent shots on target.
- The reverse fixture had 11 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance62%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.13 price requires 88.5%, above our 85.0% estimate.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W0-3FYR MacedoniavSwitzerlandSep 26, 2026UEF

3 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
1	Switzerland Promotion	2	2	0	0	6-0	6	WW
4	North Macedonia Relegation	2	0	0	2	0-5	0	LL

6pt gap between teamsSwitzerland leads the leagueNorth Macedonia in relegation zone

Recent Form

Switzerland

W3-0ScotlandSep 29UEF

W3-0FYR MacedoniaSep 26UEF

W2-0AlgeriaJul 3WOR

W2-1CanadaJun 24WOR

W4-1Bosnia & HerzegovinaJun 18WOR

D1-1QatarJun 13WOR

D1-1AustraliaJun 6FRI

W4-1JordanMay 31FRI

D0-0NorwayMar 31FRI

L3-4GermanyMar 27FRI

D1-1KosovoNov 18WOR

W4-1SwedenNov 15WOR

D0-0SloveniaOct 13WOR

W2-0SwedenOct 10WOR

W3-0SloveniaSep 8WOR

North Macedonia

L0-2SloveniaSep 29UEF

L0-3SwitzerlandSep 26UEF

L0-4TürkiyeJun 1FRI

D0-0Bosnia & HerzegovinaMay 29FRI

D0-0Rep. Of IrelandMar 31FRI

L0-4DenmarkMar 26WOR

L1-7WalesNov 18WOR

D0-0LatviaNov 13FRI

D1-1KazakhstanOct 13WOR

D0-0BelgiumOct 10WOR

W5-0LiechtensteinSep 7WOR

L1-2Saudi ArabiaSep 4FRI

W1-0KazakhstanJun 9WOR

D1-1BelgiumJun 6WOR

D1-1WalesMar 25WOR

Squad & Injuries

Switzerland

24 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

North Macedonia

24 available

Attackers5

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3