Over 3.5
Market 80% · BetBugs 83%
Both scoring rates point to a high total, and the only meeting between the sides produced eight goals in a one-sided contest.
CONCACAF Nations LeagueFull timeFeatured
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Saint Martin can seal promotion to League B with a win, against a Bahamas side they beat 8-0 a fortnight ago.
They should win, and probably by several goals. Just one quoted price comes out ahead: over 3.5 goals at 1.25. The 1.01 on a Saint Martin win leaves nothing, and both teams to score "No" at 1.4 is close to fair rather than generous.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 80% · BetBugs 83%
Both scoring rates point to a high total, and the only meeting between the sides produced eight goals in a one-sided contest.
Market 71.4% · BetBugs 73%
The Bahamas rarely score against organised defences and were completely shut out in the previous meeting.
Other edges · 1
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
Saint MartinBetBugs 93% · Market 99%
Saint Martin thrashed this same opponent 8-0 a fortnight ago and carry a large scoring and defensive advantage over a Bahamas side without a win in close to two years.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
The 1.01 price requires 99.0%, above our 93.0% estimate.

