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Predictions graded

Bahamas2US Virgin Islands3

HT 0–2Sun 4 Oct 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions13–287%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 28–8On targetOn target 4–6CornersCorners 11–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 08:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Bahamas host the return leg four days after losing 3-1 in the US Virgin Islands, and their home record — one win and seven defeats in eight home matches, including an 8-0 loss to Saint Martin — makes them clear underdogs.

US Virgin Islands are the more likely winners, though they have lost five of six away. The prices with something to offer are Bahamas to win or draw at 2.63 and Bahamas to win at 5.5.

Context

The two teams opened their League C Group C double-header in Christiansted on 29 September, and US Virgin Islands won 3-1 after leading 2-0 at half-time. Because the return leg follows only four days later, that meeting is the most direct reference point for reading this fixture and establishes US Virgin Islands as the side with the better recent result in the pairing. A single 3-1 scoreline is a thin basis for a firm read, and the venue now shifts to Bahamas, so the result should be treated as context rather than a settled measure of the two teams' level.
- US Virgin Islands beat Bahamas 3-1 on 29 September 2026 at Bethlehem Soccer Stadium in Christiansted.
- US Virgin Islands led 2-0 at half-time before Bahamas scored in the second half.
- Jimson Saint Louis (14'), Rakeem Joseph (45+3') and Noah Armour (62') scored for US Virgin Islands; Christopher Rahming (68') scored for Bahamas.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 08:05 · Europe/BucharestCONCACAF Nations League: US Virgin Islands vs Bahamas box scorewww.foxsports.com · 29 Sep 2026Bahamas vs US Virgin Islands match reportwww.espn.com · 29 Sep 2026
Bahamas come into this return leg with the weaker home defensive record of the two sides.
A single dated result is not a long-run trend, but it shows how quickly this defence can be opened up: five goals went in before half-time. Bahamas now face a side that scored three against them four days earlier, so holding the early stages is the part of the game they most need.
- Bahamas lost 0-8 at home to Saint Martin in the CONCACAF Nations League on 23 September 2026.
- Bahamas took 2 shots, none on target, and 1 corner; Saint Martin took 26 shots, 11 on target and 12 corners.
- Bahamas trailed 5-0 at half-time in that match.
US Virgin Islands travel to the Bahamas on the back of a heavy home loss in the same competition.
One result does not settle how the visitors will play on the road, and their away record is already the weaker half of their profile. What the 0-5 shows is that they can be overrun when a game gets away from them, which matters against a Bahamas side that will want an early goal of its own.
- US Virgin Islands lost 0-5 at home to Saint Martin in the CONCACAF Nations League on 1 October 2026.
- US Virgin Islands took 5 shots, 1 on target and 3 corners; Saint Martin took 30 shots, 11 on target and 16 corners.
- US Virgin Islands conceded four second-half goals after trailing 1-0 at half-time.
The Nations League is the qualifying competition for the 2027 Gold Cup, and this fixture sits in the September-October window that holds 74 group-stage matches across Leagues A, B and C. Points from these group games therefore feed the qualification path, so the 4 October return leg carries table consequences rather than being a standalone friendly. The wider format does not by itself settle where either side stands in League C Group C, so the exact stakes depend on the group table rather than on the schedule alone.
- The 2026-27 Nations League September-October window contains 74 group-stage matches across Leagues A, B and C.
- The competition is the qualifying route to the 2027 Concacaf Gold Cup.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 08:05 · Europe/BucharestConcacaf September-October Nations League schedulewww.concacaf.com · 21 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
US Virgin Islands have better recent attacking output and beat Bahamas comfortably days ago.
- US Virgin Islands won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 2026-09-29.
- US Virgin Islands beat Saint Martin 2-0 away on 2026-09-26.
- Bahamas concede 4.27 goals per game overall and 4.75 at home.
- US Virgin Islands scored in 10 of 14 overall matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonUS Virgin IslandsEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
US Virgin Islands started strongly in the last meeting and Bahamas concede early goals.
- US Virgin Islands led 2-0 at half-time in the most recent meeting.
- US Virgin Islands average 0.64 first-half goals; Bahamas concede 2.07 first-half goals.
- Bahamas average 0.6 first-half goals; US Virgin Islands concede 1.07 first-half goals.
- Bahamas home first-half goals against average is 2.25.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonUS Virgin IslandsEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
US Virgin Islands have more second-half attacking output and face a weak Bahamas defence.
- US Virgin Islands average 0.79 second-half goals; Bahamas concede 2.2 second-half goals.
- The most recent meeting had a 1-1 second half.
- US Virgin Islands scored 2 second-half goals against American Samoa on 2026-03-25.
- US Virgin Islands lost the second half 0-4 against Saint Martin on 2026-10-01.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostUS Virgin IslandsEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bahamas are poor overall but have a home win over US Virgin Islands and the visitors have struggled away. US Virgin Islands have better recent attacking output and beat Bahamas comfortably days ago.
- Bahamas have 1 win, 1 draw and 13 losses in 15 competitive matches.
- Bahamas home record is 1 win, 0 draws and 7 losses in 8 matches.
- US Virgin Islands won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 2026-09-29.
- US Virgin Islands beat Saint Martin 2-0 away on 2026-09-26.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBahamas or US Virgin IslandsEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A first-half draw is possible, but both teams' first-half numbers suggest goals will be scored. US Virgin Islands started strongly in the last meeting and Bahamas concede early goals.
- Bahamas average 0.6 first-half goals for and 2.07 against.
- US Virgin Islands average 0.64 first-half goals for and 1.07 against.
- US Virgin Islands led 2-0 at half-time in the most recent meeting.
- US Virgin Islands average 0.64 first-half goals; Bahamas concede 2.07 first-half goals.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or US Virgin IslandsEstimated chance78%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams' defensive numbers and the recent meeting point to a high-scoring game.
- Bahamas home matches average 1.0 goal for and 4.75 against.
- US Virgin Islands away matches average 0.83 goals for and 2.17 against.
- The most recent meeting on 2026-09-29 produced 4 goals.
- Bahamas have no clean sheets in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both teams have scored regularly and the recent meeting saw both find the net.
- Bahamas scored in 9 of 15 matches; US Virgin Islands scored in 10 of 14.
- Both teams scored in 9 of Bahamas' 15 and 9 of US Virgin Islands' 14 matches.
- The most recent meeting on 2026-09-29 saw both teams score.
- Bahamas home matches had both teams scoring in 5 of 8.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bahamas' scoring output is low, making under 1.5 more likely.
- Bahamas average 1.0 goal per game overall and at home.
- Bahamas scored 5 goals in 8 home matches.
- Bahamas have scored more than 1 goal in only 1 of their last 8 home matches.
- Bahamas failed to score in 6 of 15 matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostBahamas under 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
US Virgin Islands could score twice against a very weak Bahamas defence.
- US Virgin Islands average 0.83 goals per away match.
- US Virgin Islands scored 2 goals at Saint Martin on 2026-09-26.
- US Virgin Islands scored 3 goals at home against Bahamas on 2026-09-29.
- Bahamas concede 4.75 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonUS Virgin Islands over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
First-half goals are very likely given Bahamas' early concessions.
- Bahamas concede 2.07 first-half goals on average.
- US Virgin Islands score 0.64 first-half goals on average.
- The most recent meeting on 2026-09-29 had 2 first-half goals.
- Bahamas home first-half goals against average is 2.25.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half goals are likely with both teams' late scoring and conceding.
- Bahamas second-half goals against average is 2.2.
- US Virgin Islands second-half goals for average is 0.79.
- The most recent meeting on 2026-09-29 had 2 second-half goals.
- US Virgin Islands conceded 4 second-half goals against Saint Martin on 2026-10-01.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance68%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches typically produce many corners.
- Bahamas matches average 3.55 corners for and 8.09 against, total 11.64.
- US Virgin Islands matches average 3.33 corners for and 8.67 against, total 12.0.
- Bahamas home corners average 3.2 for and 8.4 against, total 11.6.
- The most recent meeting on 2026-09-29 had 5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 6.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches consistently produce high shot totals.
- Bahamas matches average 9.09 shots for and 23.09 against, total 32.18.
- US Virgin Islands matches average 9.22 shots for and 21.44 against, total 30.67.
- The most recent meeting on 2026-09-29 had 25 total shots.
- Bahamas home shots average 8.8 for and 25 against, total 33.8.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 18.5Estimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches regularly produce more than 7.5 shots on target.
- Bahamas matches average 3.73 shots on target for and 9.55 against, total 13.27.
- US Virgin Islands matches average 3.44 for and 8.56 against, total 12.0.
- The most recent meeting on 2026-09-29 had 10 total shots on target.
- Bahamas home shots on target average 3.8 for and 10.2 against.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages are around 2.5 to 3.0, making over slightly more likely.
- Bahamas matches average 1.1 yellow and 1.4 opponent yellow, plus 0.5 red.
- US Virgin Islands matches average 1.67 yellow and 0.78 opponent yellow, plus 0.25 red.
- The most recent meeting on 2026-09-29 had 2 yellow cards.
- Bahamas have 2 red cards in 15 matches; US Virgin Islands have 4 red cards in 14.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 1W

L3-1US Virgin IslandsvBahamasSep 29, 2026CON

W3-1BahamasvUS Virgin IslandsOct 13, 2024CON

D3-3US Virgin IslandsvBahamasSep 4, 2024CON

4.7 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Bahamas

L1-3US Virgin IslandsSep 29CON

L0-8Saint MartinSep 23CON

L0-1Cayman IslandsMar 30CON

L1-3AnguillaMar 26CON

L0-6British Virgin IslandsNov 15CON

L1-2AnguillaNov 12CON

L0-8Costa RicaJun 7WOR

L0-6GrenadaJun 4WOR

L2-6BarbadosOct 16CON

W3-1US Virgin IslandsOct 13CON

L2-3BarbadosSep 7CON

D3-3US Virgin IslandsSep 4CON

L0-1St. Kitts and NevisJun 11WOR

L1-7Trinidad and TobagoJun 8WOR

L1-6Puerto RicoNov 22CON

US Virgin Islands

L0-5Saint MartinOct 1CON

W3-1BahamasSep 29CON

W2-0Saint MartinSep 26CON

L0-2Puerto RicoMar 29FIF

W5-2American SamoaMar 25FIF

L1-4GrenadaNov 15FRI

L1-3BahamasOct 13CON

L0-5BarbadosOct 10CON

L0-3BarbadosSep 10CON

D3-3BahamasSep 4CON

D1-1British Virgin IslandsMar 22WOR

L1-4ArubaNov 16CON

L1-2Cayman IslandsOct 17CON

L1-3ArubaOct 14CON

D2-2Cayman IslandsSep 7CON

Squad & Injuries

Bahamas

21 available

Attackers2

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper1

US Virgin Islands

23 available

Attackers4

Midfielders12

Defenders4

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Bahamas or Draw

Bahamas

Over 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 6 landed

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Bahamas

US Virgin Islands

Squad & Injuries

Bahamas

US Virgin Islands