Italy3Turkey1

HT 1–0Mon 5 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions13–193%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 15–14On targetOn target 6–5CornersCorners 3–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 22:58 · Europe/Bucharest

Seven days after losing 4-1 in Bursa, Turkey return to face Italy in Bologna with both sides coming off away games three days earlier.

Italy are the likelier winners, but 1.60 is thin for a side beaten three times in their last seven home matches. The one quoted price that offers anything is both teams to score – No at 1.95, with Italy keeping four clean sheets in seven at home and Turkey scoring once in two group games.

Context

Raspadori began the Bursa match in the forward line, one of the attacking roles Italy's staff had reworked after the Belgium defeat, so his withdrawal removes a player who had just been used from the start of the group's second game. He is out for the rest of this window, which means the Bologna attack must come from the players who finished that match or from a further reshuffle of the front line. The firm part is his departure from the squad; no recovery timetable has been set out, so his status beyond these two matches is open and his replacement is a live selection question.
- Raspadori left the Italy camp after being injured during the 4-1 win over Turkey in Bursa
- He is unavailable for the France match in Paris and for the Turkey fixture in Bologna
- Sky's reported Italy line-up for Bursa placed Raspadori in the front three
- G. Raspadori started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Italy's first meeting with Turkey in this group ended 4-1 in Bursa, with three Italy goals inside the opening half-hour and a 3-0 lead at the break. Seven days later the same pair meet again, so both staffs are working from a very recent and very lopsided reference point. The result also answered Italy's 2-0 home defeat by Belgium, which makes the Bologna fixture about building on that response rather than finding one. Turkey changed shape during the first leg and conceded all three early goals before reorganising, so the earlier game explains the mood around this fixture better than it forecasts the return.
- Italy won 4-1 away to Turkey in Bursa on 28 September 2026 in Nations League Group A1
- Alessandro Bastoni, Davide Frattesi, Michael Kayode and Pio Esposito scored for Italy, with Baris Alper Yilmaz replying for Turkey
- Three days earlier Italy had lost their group opener 2-0 at home to Belgium
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:57 · Europe/BucharestFootball Italia match reportfootball-italia.net · 30 Sep 2026
The Bursa defeat followed a home loss to France, and the crowd turned on the coach inside the first half-hour of a match Turkey needed to steady their group campaign. His position is now tied to the remaining fixtures of this window, with the away trips to Belgium and Italy treated domestically as the tests that will settle it. A coach working under that pressure can change personnel and shape quickly, which leaves real selection uncertainty for Bologna. The job-security element rests on domestic coverage of his own remarks rather than any federation decision, so it is context rather than settled fact.
- Turkey lost 4-1 at home to Italy in Bursa on 28 September
- Home supporters whistled Montella and chanted for his resignation during the match
- Montella has kept resignation off the agenda while acknowledging that the opening 30 minutes deserved the reaction
ReportedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Bastoni's dismissal in the World Cup play-off had removed Italy's left-sided centre-back, and his return in Bursa put him straight back into the starting defence from the first minute. He headed in from a corner inside nine minutes and was rated among Italy's better performers, in a back line that had shipped two goals to Belgium in the group opener. That makes him the most settled name Italy have available at the back for Bologna. What the game establishes is availability rather than form, since one appearance back from a suspension says little about how the defence will cope with Turkey's deliveries into the box.
- Bastoni played for Italy for the first time since being sent off in the World Cup play-off against Bosnia and Herzegovina
- He scored Italy's opening goal in the ninth minute of the 4-1 win in Bursa
- Italian match ratings placed him among Italy's stronger performers, and he spoke afterwards about the squad needing to win back the fans
- A. Bastoni started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 22:57 · Europe/BucharestFootball Italia match reportfootball-italia.net · 30 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.22fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 82%

−2.0ppshort

Italy's strong home first-half defence makes a first-half goal for each side unlikely.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

−10.0ppshort

Combined first-half scoring rates point to at least one goal before the break in most matches.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Italy

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

−2.5ppshort

Italy are the stronger side, score freely at home and have just beaten this opponent 4-1 away.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 59.9%

−2.9ppshort

Both teams' matches run to around three and a half goals and neither defence has looked settled.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Italy are the stronger side, score freely at home and have just beaten this opponent 4-1 away.
- Italy have won 8 of 13 competitive matches, averaging 2.38 goals scored and 1.54 conceded.
- Italy at home: 4 wins, 0 draws, 3 defeats, 2.00 scored and 1.14 conceded per match, four clean sheets in seven.
- Italy won 4-1 in Bursa on 28 September, leading 3-0 at half-time.
- Turkey have lost both Nations League games, scoring one and conceding five.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonItalyEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Italy's home first halves are strongly in their favour and they led early in the reverse fixture.
- Italy score 0.57 first-half goals and concede 0.14 per home match.
- Italy led 3-0 at half-time in Bursa.
- Turkey concede 0.85 first-half goals per competitive match.
- Turkey's away first-half record is 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonItalyEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Italy's goals at home come mainly in the second half, giving them the better late-game record.
- Italy score 1.43 second-half goals and concede 1.00 per home match.
- Italy's second-half scoring is nearly triple their first-half home rate.
- Turkey concede 0.80 second-half goals per away match.
- Italy scored twice after the break against Moldova and Northern Ireland.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonItalyEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Italy are the stronger side, score freely at home and have just beaten this opponent 4-1 away. Both teams have very few draws recently, but the 2024 meeting in Italy ended level and the group table is tight.
- Italy have won 8 of 13 competitive matches, averaging 2.38 goals scored and 1.54 conceded.
- Italy at home: 4 wins, 0 draws, 3 defeats, 2.00 scored and 1.14 conceded per match, four clean sheets in seven.
- Italy have drawn 1 of 13 competitive matches; Turkey 1 of 13.
- Italy have no draws in seven home matches in this window.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonItaly or DrawEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Italy's home first halves are strongly in their favour and they led early in the reverse fixture. Both teams' first halves are low-scoring enough that a level half-time score is a common outcome.
- Italy score 0.57 first-half goals and concede 0.14 per home match.
- Italy led 3-0 at half-time in Bursa.
- Italy average 0.57 first-half goals at home.
- Italy concede 0.14 first-half goals per home match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonItaly or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams' matches run to around three and a half goals and neither defence has looked settled.
- Italy's competitive matches average 3.92 total goals; Turkey's average 3.46.
- Italy at home average 3.14 total goals; Turkey away average 3.80.
- The 28 September meeting produced five goals.
- Italy have conceded in 8 of 13 matches; Turkey in 6 of 13.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Italy's home record shows few matches where both teams score, and Turkey's group output has been thin.
- Italy kept 4 clean sheets in 7 home matches; only 2 of those 7 had both teams scoring.
- Turkey scored once in two Nations League matches.
- Italy have 5 clean sheets from 13 competitive matches.
- Turkey managed three shots on target in Bursa.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Italy concede fairly often at home and Turkey have scored in most of their away matches.
- Italy conceded in 8 of 13 competitive matches and 3 of 7 at home.
- Turkey scored in 9 of 13 competitive matches.
- Turkey scored in 4 of 5 away matches.
- Italy conceded twice at home to Belgium and four to Norway.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTurkey to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Italy's scoring record at home makes a Turkey clean sheet unlikely.
- Italy scored in 11 of 13 competitive matches.
- Italy scored in 6 of 7 home matches, averaging 2.00 goals there.
- Turkey kept only one clean sheet in five away matches.
- Italy scored four in Bursa.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonItaly to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Combined first-half scoring rates point to at least one goal before the break in most matches.
- Italy's matches average 1.38 first-half goals; Turkey's average 1.85.
- Italy at home: 0.57 scored and 0.14 conceded in first halves.
- Turkey away: 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded in first halves.
- The 28 September match had three first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Italy's strong home first-half defence makes a first-half goal for each side unlikely.
- Italy have conceded one first-half goal in seven home matches.
- Turkey have conceded 0.85 first-half goals per competitive match.
- Italy's home first halves total 0.71 goals per match.
- No recent Italy home match featured first-half goals for both sides.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves average well over one and a half goals combined.
- Italy's home second halves average 2.43 total goals.
- Turkey's away second halves average 2.40 total goals.
- Italy score 1.43 and concede 1.00 after the break at home.
- The Bursa match had two second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages for both teams fall short of the line in most of their matches.
- Turkey's away matches average 9.6 corners combined.
- Italy's competitive matches average 10.77 corners combined.
- Italy's home matches average 12.0 corners combined.
- The Bursa meeting produced 8 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot totals for both teams sit below the line in their recent matches.
- Italy's home matches average 33.1 shots combined.
- Turkey's away matches average 27.8 shots combined.
- Turkey average 27.8 shots combined per competitive match.
- The Bursa meeting produced 29 shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 34.5Estimated chance62%