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Predictions graded

Turkey1Italy4

HT 0–3Mon 28 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 15–14On targetOn target 3–8CornersCorners 6–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 05:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Turkey meet Italy twice in seven days, starting in Bursa, and the first meeting pits Italy's rebuilt squad against a Turkey side that has won four of six competitive home matches.

Italy hold the stronger attacking record and have won two of the last three meetings, but 2.4 for an Italy win asks more than the evidence supports. Of the reviewed prices, only over 10.5 corners at 2.4 looks worth taking.

Context

Mancini's return resets Italy's selection basis, so the group travelling to Bursa is not the settled side the stored squad list implies. The concrete anchor is the 18 September list: 34 names, nine first-time call-ups including Kayode, Romano, Doumbia, Vergara and Zoma, with Italian reporting expecting a 4-3-3. Because the same list must cover four fixtures in eleven days, heavy rotation between the Bursa and Bologna meetings is plausible, and the first game may be used to settle new players rather than to field a fixed XI.
- Italy's window squad, named on 18 September, is the first of Roberto Mancini's second cycle as head coach; Italian coverage calls the return the "Mancini-bis".
- The 34-man list contains nine first-time senior call-ups, among them Michael Kayode, Alessandro Romano, Issa Doumbia, Antonio Vergara and Mohamed Ali Zoma.
- Mancini said Italy must "return the national team where it deserves and win back the fans".
- Pre-call-up reporting in Italy expected Italy to line up in a 4-3-3 around a core of established internationals.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 05:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Two competitive meetings with the same opponent inside a week are rare on an international calendar and change how both coaches manage the window. The anchor is the calendar itself: Italy play Belgium in Rome, travel to Bursa, then go to Paris and host Turkey in Bologna, while Turkey also face France and Belgium in the same stretch. Rotation, travel and card accumulation across those four games are therefore live selection considerations for the first meeting. The limitation is that only this fixture is played under these conditions; the Bologna return is a separate contest with its own team news.
- Turkey play Italy at Bursa's Atatürk Spor Kompleksi on Monday 28 September, with the return at Bologna's Stadio Renato Dall'Ara on 5 October.
- Italy's listed window is Belgium in Rome (25 September), Turkey in Bursa (28 September), France in Paris (2 October) and Turkey in Bologna (5 October) — four matches in eleven days.
- Turkey's own published schedule for the same period lists France at home, Italy home and away, and Belgium away.
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 05:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Dimarco was ruled out after a medical check at Coverciano, so Italy must cover the left flank in Bursa without him. The concrete anchor is his replacement: Matteo Ruggeri of Aston Villa was added to the squad the same day, which signals the left side will be reshuffled rather than simply refilled by an existing starter. The limitation is that Mancini's 34-man group was always going to be trimmed and rotated across four games, so the practical effect depends on who is picked on the left in Bursa.
- Federico Dimarco did not recover from a physical problem picked up with Inter and, after a medical check at Coverciano, was ruled unavailable and left the Italy camp.
- Roberto Mancini called Aston Villa's Matteo Ruggeri into the squad in his place.
- The withdrawal was reported as Italy's second of the camp.
- F. Dimarco started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 05:53 · Europe/Bucharest
The series leans Italy's way, but the three meetings span 2021 to 2024 and the latest was a goalless friendly, so it is background rather than a current read. For a Turkey side with a 4W-0D-2L competitive home record, it is a caution about the level of the opponent rather than a forecast, especially with Italy's competitive evidence stopping in March 2026.
- 4 June 2024, friendly in Italy: Italy 0-0 Türkiye.
- 29 March 2022, friendly in Turkey: Türkiye 2-3 Italy.
- 11 June 2021, Euro Championship in Turkey: Türkiye 0-3 Italy.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.30fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 76.9%

−3.9ppshort

Both teams score and concede regularly in the opening period, making at least one first-half goal likely.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Turkey or Italy

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 76.9%

−4.9ppshort

Turkey have a settled group and home advantage in Bursa, while Italy arrive with a rebuilt squad and no competitive football since March. Italy carry the stronger attacking numbers and a recent edge in this fixture, even allowing for travel and a new coaching staff.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.83fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 54.6%

−0.6ppshort

Both defences give up regular goals and Italy in particular are involved in high-scoring away games.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Italy

2.40fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 41.7%

−1.7ppshort

Italy carry the stronger attacking numbers and a recent edge in this fixture, even allowing for travel and a new coaching staff.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Italy carry the stronger attacking numbers and a recent edge in this fixture, even allowing for travel and a new coaching staff.
- Italy scored in 12 of 13 competitive matches and averaged 2.23 goals per game
- Italy away: 4W-1D-1L, averaging 2.33 scored and 1.83 conceded
- Turkey conceded in 8 of 11 competitive matches
- Italy have won the last two meetings by three clear goals and 3-2
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonItalyEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.20
The read
Neither side scores heavily before the break, so level at half-time is the most common single outcome.
- Turkey were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Italy were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Turkey home first halves average 1.83 total goals; Italy away first halves 1.84
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Level after the break is the single most frequent second-half outcome for both teams across the sample.
- Turkey home second halves average 1.50 total goals; Italy away second halves average 2.34
- Turkey scored and conceded after the break in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Italy scored 1.60 second-half goals per game across 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Turkey have a settled group and home advantage in Bursa, while Italy arrive with a rebuilt squad and no competitive football since March. Italy carry the stronger attacking numbers and a recent edge in this fixture, even allowing for travel and a new coaching staff.
- Turkey competitive record: 7W-1D-3L in 11, 2.00 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game
- Turkey home: 4W-0D-2L in 6, 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded per game
- Italy scored in 12 of 13 competitive matches and averaged 2.23 goals per game
- Italy away: 4W-1D-1L, averaging 2.33 scored and 1.83 conceded
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTurkey or ItalyEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Turkey's first-half scoring at home is the strongest single half split in the evidence and Italy start slowly away. Neither side scores heavily before the break, so level at half-time is the most common single outcome.
- Turkey home first halves: 1.00 scored and 0.83 conceded per game
- Italy away first halves: 0.67 scored and 1.17 conceded per game
- Turkey were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Italy were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostTurkey or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Both defences give up regular goals and Italy in particular are involved in high-scoring away games.
- Turkey's 11 competitive matches average 3.55 total goals; Italy's 13 average 3.77
- Italy's six away matches average 4.16 total goals
- Turkey conceded in 8 of 11 and Italy in 7 of 13
- Turkey's last six competitive matches averaged 2.33 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
At least one side being held off the scoresheet is the more common pattern in both teams' match logs.
- Turkey failed to score in 3 of 11 competitive matches, including 2 of the last 6
- Italy kept 6 clean sheets in 13 competitive matches, 2 in 6 away
- Turkey kept 3 clean sheets in 11 and 2 in 6 at home
- Italy scored in 12 of 13, so the shutout side rests mainly on Turkey
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Turkey's recent scoring rate against stronger opposition sits below the two-goal mark needed here.
- Turkey home: 1.67 goals per game across 6 matches
- Turkey scored 7 goals in their last 6 competitive matches, failing to score twice
- Italy kept 6 clean sheets in 13 competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonTurkey under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A rebuilt Italy attack away from home may not reach two goals despite the strong historical average.
- Italy average 2.23 goals per competitive match but their evidence ends March 2026
- Turkey kept 2 clean sheets in 6 home matches
- Turkey conceded 1.67 per home match
- Italy's squad includes nine first-time senior call-ups
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostItaly under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams score and concede regularly in the opening period, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Turkey home first halves average 1.83 total goals; Italy away first halves 1.84
- Turkey's last six competitive matches produced 7 first-half goals
- Italy's last six competitive matches produced 6 first-half goals
- Turkey home scored 1.00 and conceded 0.83 before the break per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Italy's second-half scoring rate combined with Turkey's late concession pattern points to two or more goals after the break.
- Italy away second halves average 2.34 total goals; overall 2.39
- Turkey home second halves average 1.50 total goals
- Italy average 1.54 second-half goals scored per competitive match
- Turkey conceded 0.83 second-half goals per home match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Turkey score in most of their matches and Italy concede regularly on their travels, so a shutout is the minority outcome.
- Italy conceded in 7 of 13 competitive matches and 4 of 6 away
- Turkey scored in 8 of 11 competitive matches, including 4 of the last 6
- Turkey average 1.67 goals per home match
- Italy kept 2 clean sheets in 6 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTurkey to scoreEstimated chance71%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Turkey generate consistently high corner counts at home, which lifts the combined total close to the line.
- Turkey home: 7.83 corners for and 4.67 against per match
- Italy away: 5.33 for and 4.00 against; overall 6.31 for and 4.00 against
- Turkey's last six competitive matches averaged 10.3 total corners; Italy's last six 10.0
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 10.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences keep opponent shot counts near ten, which caps the combined total in this fixture.
- Italy allow 9.54 shots per competitive match, 9.50 away
- Turkey allow 12.17 shots at home and 12.09 overall
- Turkey's last six total shots average 30.7; Italy's last six 27.3
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 34.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined on-target figures for both teams sit around ten, below the quoted line.
- Italy average 6.23 shots on target and concede 3.77 per competitive match
- Turkey average 4.82 on target and concede 4.27 per competitive match
- Italy's last six competitive matches averaged 10.0 on-target shots combined
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 11.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 0W

D0-0ItalyvTürkiyeJun 4, 2024FRI

W2-3TürkiyevItalyMar 29, 2022FRI

W0-3TürkiyevItalyJun 11, 2021EUR

Turkey unbeaten in 3 meetingsTurkey: 2 clean sheets2.7 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Turkey Relegation	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
2	Italy Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Turkey leads the leagueItaly leads the leagueTurkey in relegation zone

Recent Form

Turkey

W3-2USAJun 26WOR

L0-1ParaguayJun 20WOR

L0-2AustraliaJun 14WOR

W2-1VenezuelaJun 6FRI

W4-0FYR MacedoniaJun 1FRI

W1-0KosovoMar 31WOR

W1-0RomaniaMar 26WOR

D2-2SpainNov 18WOR

W2-0BulgariaNov 15WOR

W4-1GeorgiaOct 14WOR

W6-1BulgariaOct 11WOR

L0-6SpainSep 7WOR

W3-2GeorgiaSep 4WOR

L0-1MexicoJun 11FRI

W2-1USAJun 7FRI

Italy

W1-0GreeceJun 7FRI

W1-0LuxembourgJun 3FRI

W2-0Northern IrelandMar 26WOR

L1-4NorwayNov 16WOR

W2-0MoldovaNov 13WOR

W3-0IsraelOct 14WOR

W3-1EstoniaOct 11WOR

W5-4IsraelSep 8WOR

W5-0EstoniaSep 5WOR

W2-0MoldovaJun 9WOR

L0-3NorwayJun 6WOR

D3-3GermanyMar 23UEF

L1-2GermanyMar 20UEF

L1-3FranceNov 17UEF

W1-0BelgiumNov 14UEF

Squad & Injuries

Turkey

26 available

Attackers4

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Italy

46 available

Attackers11

Midfielders13

Defenders17

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 10.5

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Turkey or Italy

Over 2.5

Draw

Italy

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals5 of 7 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Turkey

Italy

Squad & Injuries

Turkey

Italy