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Predictions graded

Costa Rica2Haiti0

HT 2–0Mon 5 Oct 2026, 00:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–753%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 13–6On targetOn target 3–0CornersCorners 6–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 18:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Haiti beat Costa Rica 2-0 eight days ago and have not lost to them since 2019, but Costa Rica out-shot them 21-7 that night and are at home for the return.

Costa Rica to win or draw is the likelier outcome, and at 1.43 that double chance carries a small edge; the draw at 3.6 does too. A Costa Rica win at 2.3 and a Haiti win at 2.6 were each priced shorter than the chances justify.

Context

Kingston's Sabina Park hosted Haiti's 2-0 win on Sept. 27, 2026, only eight days before this rematch. The result leaves Costa Rica needing an immediate response and hands Haiti a recent reference for containing the same opponent. The venues and roles are reversed for this meeting, so the earlier conditions and the role of the crowd change.
- Haiti defeated Costa Rica 2-0 on Sept. 27, 2026 at Sabina Park in Kingston, Jamaica.
- Jean-Ricner Bellegarde scored in the 9th minute.
- Francisco Calvo scored an own goal in the 39th minute.
ReportedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 18:15 · Europe/BucharestHaiti beats Costa Rica back-to-backhaitiantimes.com · 28 Sep 2026
Haiti's six points came from its opening two Group A matches of the 2026-27 Concacaf Nations League, a run that has it in the quarterfinal picture. That makes the group table, not just the opponent, part of what is at stake in this window. Costa Rica has a thinner return from its own group games, so the incentive sits more with the side trying to stay in the chase.
- Haiti took six points from its first two Group A matches in the 2026-27 Concacaf Nations League.
- That start kept Haiti in the quarterfinal race.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 18:15 · Europe/BucharestHaiti opens Nations League campaign with two winshaitiantimes.com · 28 Sep 2026
Costa Rica's home games in the current window have swung hard, and this is the clearest example.
That collapse is the sharpest reminder of how quickly a Costa Rica home match can turn, and Haiti scored twice inside 39 minutes in Kingston eight days ago. It is one game inside a five-match home sample, though, and Costa Rica still won two and drew two of those five.
- Sept. 25, 2026: Costa Rica led Curaçao 3-0 at half-time at home and lost the Concacaf Nations League match 3-4.
- Costa Rica scored three first-half goals and none after the break; Curaçao scored all four of their goals in the second half.
Haiti reach this return leg on a three-match Nations League winning run that includes the 2-0 win over Costa Rica on Sept. 27, 2026.
A four-goal away performance is the strongest attacking return in Haiti's recent run and it arrives days before the rematch. The match was far from one-sided, with the Dominican Republic taking 17 shots and scoring once, so it reads as one good night rather than a settled pattern.
- Oct. 2, 2026: Haiti won 4-1 away to the Dominican Republic in the Concacaf Nations League.
- Haiti took 14 shots with 11 on target in that match; the Dominican Republic took 17 shots with seven on target.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.29fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 77.5%

−1.5ppshort

First-half goals have been a near-constant in both teams' recent matches.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Costa Rica are at home and created far more chances in the last meeting, so they start as the stronger side.
- Costa Rica average 2.4 goals for and 1.8 against in five competitive home matches
- They out-shot Haiti 21-7 in the 27 September meeting
- Haiti's away split is 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats from six competitive matches
- Haiti have not beaten anyone other than Costa Rica in their last three away fixtures
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCosta RicaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
The opening period has often finished level, with Costa Rica's home games tight early on.
- Costa Rica's last two matches were level or goalless at half-time in one case
- Costa Rica's competitive home matches average only 0.4 first-half goals against
- Half-time is level in the majority of matches at this level
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score and concede after the break, so the second half often ends level even when goals are scored.
- Costa Rica's competitive home matches average 2.2 second-half goals in total
- Haiti's away matches average 1.8 second-half goals in total
- Half-time and full-time outcomes diverged in several recent matches for both teams
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Costa Rica are at home and created far more chances in the last meeting, so they start as the stronger side. Costa Rica's home record includes two draws and the recent series has often been tight.
- Costa Rica average 2.4 goals for and 1.8 against in five competitive home matches
- They out-shot Haiti 21-7 in the 27 September meeting
- Three of the last five meetings were drawn
- Costa Rica have five draws from eleven competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCosta Rica or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Costa Rica start strongly at home and Haiti have given up first-half goals in most recent games. The opening period has often finished level, with Costa Rica's home games tight early on.
- Costa Rica average 1.6 first-half goals in competitive home matches
- Costa Rica scored two first-half goals against Nicaragua in October 2025
- Costa Rica's last two matches were level or goalless at half-time in one case
- Costa Rica's competitive home matches average only 0.4 first-half goals against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCosta Rica or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals3 of 8 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away goal averages point to a fairly open game.
- Costa Rica's competitive home matches average 4.2 goals in total
- Haiti's competitive away matches average 4.3 goals in total
- Seven of the last twelve matches involving these teams went over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have found the net regularly in recent matches, making a shared scoreline plausible.
- Costa Rica scored in three of their last six and conceded in four of them
- Haiti scored in four of their last six matches
- Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Costa Rica have been held to a single goal or none in half of their recent matches.
- Costa Rica scored one goal or fewer in three of their last six matches
- Both 2025-26 meetings ended with Costa Rica on zero goals
- Haiti have kept clean sheets in four of eleven competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostCosta Rica under 1.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Haiti's scoring has come in bursts against weaker opponents and can go quiet against organised hosts.
- Haiti were scoreless in two of their last six matches
- Costa Rica's competitive home matches average 1.8 goals against
- Haiti scored once in the November 2025 meeting with Costa Rica
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonHaiti under 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Costa Rica have conceded in nearly every recent home match, so Haiti scoring is the more likely outcome.
- Costa Rica conceded in four of five competitive home matches
- Costa Rica conceded four against Curaçao and three against Haiti at home
- Haiti scored in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostHaiti to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Costa Rica's home scoring rate and Haiti's recent concession record make a Haiti clean sheet unlikely.
- Costa Rica scored in three of their last six matches
- Costa Rica average 2.4 goals in competitive home matches
- Haiti conceded in five of their last six matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCosta Rica to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
First-half goals have been a near-constant in both teams' recent matches.
- All six of Haiti's most recent matches produced a first-half goal
- Costa Rica's competitive home matches average 2.0 first-half goals in total
- The last meeting produced two first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half goal totals for both teams sit just above the 1.5 line.
- Costa Rica's competitive home matches average 2.2 second-half goals in total
- Haiti's competitive away matches average 1.8 second-half goals in total
- Both teams scored three second-half goals in their most recent matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches tend to produce around eight corners, putting the line close to a coin flip.
- Costa Rica home matches average 7.6 corners in total
- Haiti away matches average 8.7 corners in total
- Eight of the last twelve matches involving these teams had eight or more corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot volumes for both teams sit above the line, and recent matches have been busy.
- Costa Rica home matches average 23.2 shots in total
- Haiti away matches average 23.5 shots in total
- Nine of the last twelve matches involving these teams had more than 22.5 shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 22.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

0W · 3D · 2W

L2-0HaitivCosta RicaSep 27, 2026CON

L1-0HaitivCosta RicaNov 14, 2025WOR

D3-3Costa RicavHaitiSep 10, 2025WOR

D1-1Costa RicavHaitiNov 18, 2019CON

D1-1HaitivCosta RicaOct 11, 2019CON

Haiti unbeaten in 5 meetingsHaiti: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Costa Rica

W3-0NicaraguaOct 2CON

L0-2HaitiSep 27CON

L3-4CuraçaoSep 25CON

L0-3EnglandJun 10FRI

L1-3ColombiaJun 1FRI

L0-5IranMar 31FRI

D2-2JordanMar 27FRI

D0-0HondurasNov 19WOR

L0-1HaitiNov 14WOR

W4-1NicaraguaOct 14WOR

D0-0HondurasOct 10WOR

D3-3HaitiSep 10WOR

D1-1NicaraguaSep 6WOR

D0-0MexicoJun 23CON

W2-1Dominican RepublicJun 18CON

Haiti

W4-1Dominican RepublicOct 2CON

W2-0Costa RicaSep 27CON

W3-2Trinidad and TobagoSep 25CON

L2-4MoroccoJun 24WOR

L0-3BrazilJun 20WOR

L0-1ScotlandJun 14WOR

L1-2PeruJun 6FRI

W4-0New ZealandJun 3FRI

D1-1IcelandMar 31FRI

L0-1TunisiaMar 29FRI

W2-0NicaraguaNov 19WOR

W1-0Costa RicaNov 14WOR

L0-3HondurasOct 14WOR

W3-0NicaraguaOct 10WOR

D3-3Costa RicaSep 10WOR

Squad & Injuries

Costa Rica

43 available

Attackers9

Midfielders13

Defenders17

Goalkeeper4

Haiti

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Costa Rica or Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 8 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Costa Rica

Haiti

Squad & Injuries

Costa Rica

Haiti