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Predictions graded

Haiti2Costa Rica0

HT 2–0Sun 27 Sept 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 6–21On targetOn target 2–7CornersCorners 3–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 17:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Haiti's late 3-2 win over Trinidad and Tobago meets a Costa Rica side that led 3-0 at home and lost 4-3.

Haiti's home record — three clean sheets in five, 0.6 conceded per game — and Costa Rica's one goal in four tracked away matches point to a tight, low-scoring night, with Haiti the more likely winner. Both teams to score – No at 2.00 is the one quoted price that holds up; Under 2.5 goals at 1.88 is about right.

Context

Costa Rica conceded four times in roughly twenty minutes at the Estadio Ricardo Saprissa, turning a 3-0 half-time lead into a 3-4 opening defeat. That leaves Bocha Batista's team at the bottom of Group A and under immediate pressure before their second fixture, with the home support reported to have chanted for his removal. For this match the live question is whether Costa Rica can reorganise a defence that shipped four goals against Curaçao, rather than simply out-talent Haiti. The chants come from a single large outlet, so the threat to Batista is best read as reported scrutiny rather than a confirmed change.
- Costa Rica led Curaçao 3-0 at half-time at the Estadio Ricardo Saprissa on 24 September 2026 and lost 4-3 in their CONCACAF Nations League opener.
- Kenji Gorré scored twice as Curaçao scored four goals between the 62nd and 82nd minutes.
- El Nuevo País reported the home crowd chanted 'Fuera Bocha' during the defeat.
- ESPN Centroamérica identified 'Bocha' Batista as the coach who selected Costa Rica's squad for the Curaçao, Haiti and Nicaragua matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 17:25 · Europe/Bucharest
David Badia was presented by the Haitian federation on 4 September at the Hôtel Karibe, becoming the 24th coach in the national team's history and the successor to Sébastien Migné. He has promised a 'courageous and offensive' identity, and his first competitive window came with a 24-man squad and two first-time call-ups. The Costa Rica match is only the second outing of that project, so shape and selection are still being established. His opening game produced a three-goal, stoppage-time comeback, which fits the attacking intent but makes the new structure hard to predict.
- The Haitian federation presented David Badia as head coach on 4 September 2026 at the Hôtel Karibe in Pétion-Ville.
- He succeeds Sébastien Migné and is the 24th head coach in Haiti's history.
- Badia named a 24-man squad for the opening Nations League window, including first call-ups Kenny Quetant and Jonah Mednard.
- He described his intended identity as a 'courageous and offensive' team that takes the initiative.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 17:25 · Europe/Bucharest
Wilson Isidor, a Premier League forward with Sunderland, scored Haiti's stoppage-time winner against Trinidad and Tobago and supplied both assists, including the pass for Garven Métusala's equaliser. That makes him the decisive figure in Haiti's first win of the campaign and the player Costa Rica's defence will most need to contain. His club level is unusual for this Haiti group, so opponents cannot treat the front line as interchangeable. The caveat is that Haiti's goals came only in second-half stoppage time, which points to clinical finishing rather than sustained creation.
- Isidor scored Haiti's winning goal in second-half stoppage time in the 3-2 win over Trinidad and Tobago on 24 September 2026.
- He provided both assists, including the pass for Garven Métusala's 90+1 equaliser.
- Isidor plays for Sunderland in the English Premier League.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 17:25 · Europe/Bucharest
Haiti beat Costa Rica 1-0 in November 2025 during the CONCACAF World Cup qualifying campaign, a result that formed part of their run to the 2026 World Cup, after the sides had drawn 3-3 in September 2025. Both games were played within the past year and involved largely the same squads that meet here. The recent record therefore argues against treating this as a straightforward Costa Rica assignment. Those results came in a different competition, and Haiti's qualifying campaign was built on narrow margins rather than control.
- Haiti beat Costa Rica 1-0 in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying on 14 November 2025.
- The sides drew 3-3 in the same qualifying campaign on 9 September 2025.
- Haiti went on to play at the 2026 World Cup, their second appearance at the tournament.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 17:25 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.18fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 84.7%

−4.7ppshort

Costa Rica's away first halves produce almost no goals at either end.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.35fair 1.37

BetBugs 73% · Market 74.1%

−1.1ppshort

First-half goals have appeared in every recent Haiti match and in most of Costa Rica's, making a goalless opening half unlikely.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Haiti

2.40fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 41.7%

−3.7ppshort

Haiti have the better head-to-head record and the steadier recent home results, while Costa Rica arrive without an away win in their tracked sample.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Haiti have the better head-to-head record and the steadier recent home results, while Costa Rica arrive without an away win in their tracked sample.
- Haiti won 3 of 5 designated home matches, conceding 0.6 goals per game
- Haiti are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Costa Rica (two wins, three draws)
- Costa Rica have no win in four away matches in the sample and scored once
- Costa Rica lost their opener 4-3 at home after leading 3-0 at half-time
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHaitiEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.20
The read
Both teams' first-half goal numbers are low enough that level scores at the break are the single most likely outcome.
- Costa Rica concede 0.36 first-half goals per competitive match
- Haiti's home first-half split is 0.8 scored and 0.4 conceded per game
- Costa Rica's away matches average 0.25 first-half goals
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates for both sides are low, pointing to a level closing period.
- Costa Rica's away matches average 0.25 second-half goals for and 0.25 against
- Haiti's home second-half split is 0.4 scored and 0.2 conceded
- Haiti's overall second-half average is 0.55 scored and 0.45 conceded
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Haiti have the better head-to-head record and the steadier recent home results, while Costa Rica arrive without an away win in their tracked sample. Costa Rica have the better overall record and much stronger first-half numbers, and Haiti were well beaten in all three World Cup group games.
- Haiti won 3 of 5 designated home matches, conceding 0.6 goals per game
- Haiti are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Costa Rica (two wins, three draws)
- Costa Rica's competitive record in the window is 4 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses against Haiti's 4-2-5
- Costa Rica average 1.09 first-half goals for and 0.36 against per match
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHaiti or Costa RicaEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half goal numbers are low enough that level scores at the break are the single most likely outcome. Costa Rica's first-half scoring and defensive numbers are the strongest part of their profile, and Haiti concede regularly before the break.
- Costa Rica concede 0.36 first-half goals per competitive match
- Haiti's home first-half split is 0.8 scored and 0.4 conceded per game
- Costa Rica average 1.09 first-half goals and concede 0.36 per match
- Costa Rica scored three first-half goals in their opener against Curaçao
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Costa RicaEstimated chance73%

Goals6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.88
The read
The head-to-head history and Costa Rica's meagre away scoring, against Haiti's tidy home defence, both point to a low-scoring game.
- Four of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals
- Costa Rica score 0.25 goals per away match in the sample
- Haiti concede 0.6 goals per home match and kept three clean sheets in five
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Costa Rica's away scoring is negligible and Haiti's home defence has produced frequent clean sheets.
- Costa Rica have scored once in four away matches in the sample
- Haiti kept clean sheets in three of five home matches
- Costa Rica failed to score in three of their last six matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Haiti's home scoring average sits below two goals and Costa Rica's away defence has been hard to break down.
- Haiti average 1.2 goals per home match
- Costa Rica conceded 0.5 goals per away match with two clean sheets in four
- Haiti were scoreless in three World Cup group matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostHaiti under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Costa Rica's away output has been minimal and Haiti have kept clean sheets in most home matches.
- Costa Rica have scored once in four away matches
- Costa Rica failed to score in away games at Honduras and at Haiti
- Haiti kept clean sheets in three of five home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCosta Rica under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Haiti concede regularly across their recent matches and Costa Rica showed in their opener that they can score freely.
- Costa Rica scored three against Curaçao in their opener
- Haiti's overall goals-against average is 1.64 per competitive match
- Haiti conceded in their 3-2 win over Trinidad and Tobago
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCosta Rica to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Haiti have scored in almost every recent match and Costa Rica have conceded in most of theirs.
- Haiti scored in five of their last six matches
- Haiti scored three in their most recent match
- Costa Rica concede 1.36 goals per competitive match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHaiti to scoreEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
First-half goals have appeared in every recent Haiti match and in most of Costa Rica's, making a goalless opening half unlikely.
- All six of Haiti's last six matches produced at least one first-half goal
- Costa Rica's opener had three first-half goals
- Haiti's home first-half average is 0.8 scored and 0.4 conceded
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Costa Rica's away first halves produce almost no goals at either end.
- Costa Rica have scored no first-half goals in their four tracked away matches
- Costa Rica concede only 0.36 first-half goals per match
- Just one of Costa Rica's last six matches had both teams scoring before the break
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance80%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Costa Rica generate very few corners away from home, which drags the combined total toward the under.
- Costa Rica's away matches average 6.5 total corners
- Costa Rica took no corners in their opener and one against Nicaragua
- Haiti concede 5.1 corners per match while taking 3.7
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have produced card totals around the line, and the competitive context adds tension.
- Costa Rica's away matches average 4.5 yellow cards for both teams
- Haiti's 3-2 win featured two yellow cards and their 2-0 win over Nicaragua had seven
- Costa Rica have had at least one red card in their tracked window
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 3D · 0W

W1-0HaitivCosta RicaNov 14, 2025WOR

D3-3Costa RicavHaitiSep 10, 2025WOR

D1-1Costa RicavHaitiNov 18, 2019CON

D1-1HaitivCosta RicaOct 11, 2019CON

W2-1HaitivCosta RicaJun 25, 2019CON

Haiti unbeaten in 5 meetings2.8 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Haiti

W3-2Trinidad and TobagoSep 25CON

L2-4MoroccoJun 24WOR

L0-3BrazilJun 20WOR

L0-1ScotlandJun 14WOR

L1-2PeruJun 6FRI

W4-0New ZealandJun 3FRI

D1-1IcelandMar 31FRI

L0-1TunisiaMar 29FRI

W2-0NicaraguaNov 19WOR

W1-0Costa RicaNov 14WOR

L0-3HondurasOct 14WOR

W3-0NicaraguaOct 10WOR

D3-3Costa RicaSep 10WOR

D0-0HondurasSep 6WOR

L1-2USAJun 22CON

Costa Rica

L3-4CuraçaoSep 25CON

L0-3EnglandJun 10FRI

L1-3ColombiaJun 1FRI

L0-5IranMar 31FRI

D2-2JordanMar 27FRI

D0-0HondurasNov 19WOR

L0-1HaitiNov 14WOR

W4-1NicaraguaOct 14WOR

D0-0HondurasOct 10WOR

D3-3HaitiSep 10WOR

D1-1NicaraguaSep 6WOR

D0-0MexicoJun 23CON

W2-1Dominican RepublicJun 18CON

W4-3SurinameJun 16CON

W2-1Trinidad and TobagoJun 11WOR

Squad & Injuries

Haiti

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Costa Rica

34 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Under 2.5

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw

Haiti

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals6 of 8 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Haiti

Costa Rica

Squad & Injuries

Haiti

Costa Rica