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FremSundby

Sat 26 Sept 2026, 12:0026 Sept, 12:00

14Probabilities5Priced5Edges84%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 16:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Frem's unbeaten league home record meets Sundby's five defeats from five away games.

Frem are the likelier winners, though their own three-match losing run and a goalless meeting with Sundby in June point the other way. A Frem win at 1.73, over 2.5 goals at 1.5, both teams to score at 1.53, over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.22 and a drawn first half at 2.4 all ask more than the form supports, so none is worth backing.

Context

The home-away split is the real condition here — Sundby have no points from five away league games while Frem are unbeaten at home — but it rests on three- and five-match samples, and the heaviest result on either recent record, Sundby's 0-7 cup loss to Superliga side FC Midtjylland on 10 September, says little about a meeting between two 3. Division teams.

Sundby's problem in this division has been travel rather than the side itself, which is the season-long contrast going into this fixture.
The away column is the one that matters here: no points from five road games and eleven goals conceded, against a home record of two wins and a draw. Frem have won two of three league home games and scored nine goals in them. A Sundby performance closer to their home form would make the trip far less straightforward than the away record alone suggests.
- Standings fetched 25 September 2026: Sundby are 10th with 7 points from 8 league games (2 wins, 1 draw, 5 defeats, 11 scored, 15 conceded)
- Sundby's away league record: 5 played, 0 wins, 0 draws, 5 defeats, 4 scored, 11 conceded
- Sundby's home league record: 3 played, 2 wins, 1 draw, 7 scored, 4 conceded
- Frem's home league record: 3 played, 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats, 9 scored, 4 conceded
Frem's home league results are the reason they start as the likelier winner; their wider recent run is the reason that is not a settled picture.
Three defeats inside eleven days — 2-3 at Ishøj, 2-3 at Holstebro and 1-2 at home to Roskilde in the cup — sit against a league home record of two wins and a draw. Frem have been conceding three goals a game in that stretch, which gives Sundby a realistic route to scoring even if the overall picture still points to the home side.
- 19 September 2026: Frem lost 2-3 at Ishøj in 3. Division, having led 2-1 at half-time
- 13 September 2026: Frem lost 2-3 at Holstebro in 3. Division
- 9 September 2026: Frem lost 1-2 at home to Roskilde in the DBU Pokalen
Sundby hosted FC Midtjylland in the DBU Pokalen on 10 September and lost 0-7, the heaviest result attached to either club so far this season. It ended their run in the competition and accounts for the outlier on their recent record. The gap in level is what limits any read-across: the opponent was a Superliga club, not a 3. Division peer, so the margin says little about how Sundby will handle Frem. Sundby have since lost 1-2 at FC Helsingør and won 2-0 at home to Holstebro in the league, so their league form reads separately from the cup night.
- FC Midtjylland won 7-0 away at Sundby BK in the DBU Pokalen third round on 10 September 2026.
- Friday Etim scored in the 68th minute and Stanley Iheanacho also featured for FC Midtjylland in the tie.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 16:22 · Europe/Bucharest
The series has been close rather than one-sided, and the June fixture produced no goals at all.
Two of the last five meetings finished level, and the June one produced nothing. Frem's league home games this season have yielded nine goals in three matches, so another blank would run against their own home pattern, while the 2-1 win for Sundby in the May reverse fixture shows they can take this match.
- 13 June 2026: Frem 0-0 Sundby in 3. Division at Frem — the most recent meeting
- The last five meetings from 2 August 2025 contain two Frem wins, one Sundby win and two draws
- 8 May 2026: Sundby 2-1 Frem in 3. Division at Sundby

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

−10.0ppshort

Frem's home first halves usually contain a goal, making at least one goal before the break the likely outcome.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.53fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 65.4%

−1.4ppshort

Frem concede regularly at home and Sundby have scored in each of their last four games, so both teams finding the net is the more likely outcome.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Both teams are routinely involved in games with three or more goals and Sundby concede heavily on their travels, so a higher-scoring match is the more likely shape.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Frem

1.73fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 57.8%

−7.8ppshort

Frem's league home record is strong and Sundby have taken nothing from any away game this season, which gives the home side the better chance.

First Half WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.40fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 41.7%

−1.7ppshort

The first half is the tightest part of Sundby's games and their low first-half scoring makes a level half-time scoreline the single most likely outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 78%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.73
The read
Frem's league home record is strong and Sundby have taken nothing from any away game this season, which gives the home side the better chance.
- Frem are unbeaten at home in the league (2 wins, 1 draw, 9 goals scored in 3 home games)
- Sundby have lost all five away league matches, scoring 4 and conceding 11
- Frem sit 9th on 8 points, Sundby 10th on 7
- Last five meetings: two Frem wins, one Sundby win, two draws
BetBugs · Match WinnerFremMarket price1.73Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
The first half is the tightest part of Sundby's games and their low first-half scoring makes a level half-time scoreline the single most likely outcome.
- Sundby were level at half-time in three of their last six matches
- Sundby average 0.42 first-half goals for and 0.57 against
- The June meeting between the clubs finished 0-0
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawMarket price2.40Estimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates for the two teams are close, making an even half the most likely single outcome.
- Frem's second-half goals for and against are 0.75 and 0.83
- Sundby's second-half goals for and against are 0.86 and 1.14
- The two most recent meetings were decided by no more than one goal
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Frem's league home record is strong and Sundby have taken nothing from any away game this season, which gives the home side the better chance. Both sides have been involved in tight, low-margin results against each other recently, so a share of the points remains a realistic outcome.
- Frem are unbeaten at home in the league (2 wins, 1 draw, 9 goals scored in 3 home games)
- Sundby have lost all five away league matches, scoring 4 and conceding 11
- Frem have drawn 3 of 12 competitive matches, Sundby 2 of 12
- The two most recent head-to-heads were a 0-0 and a 2-1 Sundby home win
BetBugs · Double ChanceFrem or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Frem start home games strongly while Sundby rarely score before the break, so a Frem half-time lead is the most likely single result. The first half is the tightest part of Sundby's games and their low first-half scoring makes a level half-time scoreline the single most likely outcome.
- Frem average 1.4 first-half goals at home and 0.8 conceded
- Sundby average 0.42 first-half goals per competitive match
- Sundby were level at half-time in three of their last six matches
- Sundby average 0.42 first-half goals for and 0.57 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfFrem or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals9 outcomes · top 84%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams are routinely involved in games with three or more goals and Sundby concede heavily on their travels, so a higher-scoring match is the more likely shape.
- Frem's last six matches all produced three goals or more
- Sundby's league away games average 2.2 goals conceded
- Frem average 1.67 scored and 1.5 conceded per competitive match
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.50Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Frem concede regularly at home and Sundby have scored in each of their last four games, so both teams finding the net is the more likely outcome.
- Both teams scored in 9 of Frem's 12 competitive matches and in 4 of their 5 home matches
- Both teams scored in 5 of Sundby's 7 away-window matches
- Sundby have found the net in their last four competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.53Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Frem's home scoring rate in the league and Sundby's heavy away concession rate make two or more home goals more likely than not.
- Frem scored 9 goals in 3 league home matches
- Frem scored 2 or more in five of their last six matches
- Sundby concede 2.2 goals per away league game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalFrem over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sundby's away output has been consistently low, making one goal or fewer the clear favourite.
- Sundby have scored 4 goals in 5 away league matches
- Sundby's away scoring average in the tracked window is 0.8 goals per game
- Their last two away league games produced 1 and 0 goals
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalSundby under 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Frem concede regularly and Sundby have been scoring lately, so Frem keeping a clean sheet is the less likely outcome.
- Frem kept only 2 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in 4 of Frem's 5 home matches
- Sundby found the net in four straight competitive matches
BetBugs · Team to ScoreSundby to scoreEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Frem's home scoring record points strongly to Sundby conceding at least once.
- Frem average 2.0 goals per home match in the tracked window
- Frem scored in every home match except one this season
- Sundby concede 2.2 goals per away league match
BetBugs · Team to ScoreFrem to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Frem's home first halves usually contain a goal, making at least one goal before the break the likely outcome.
- Frem scored first-half goals in four of their last six matches
- Frem average 1.4 first-half goals at home
- Sundby conceded first-half goals in three of their last six matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.22Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sundby's low first-half output makes it much more likely that at least one side fails to score before the break.
- Sundby have scored first-half goals in only two of their last six matches
- Frem's first-half average against at home is 0.8
- Sundby's overall first-half scoring average is 0.42
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Frem's home second halves have been low-scoring and several of Sundby's recent games had few goals after the break.
- Frem's home second-half average is 0.6 scored and 0.4 conceded
- Three of Sundby's last six matches had one second-half goal or none
- Sundby's second-half scoring average is 0.86 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance53%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D0-0FremvSundbyJun 13, 20263.

L2-1SundbyvFremMay 8, 20263.

D0-0FremvSundbyFeb 21, 2026FRI

W1-2SundbyvFremNov 15, 20253.

W3-2FremvSundbyAug 2, 20253.

Frem: 2 clean sheetsSundby: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

3. Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Frem 3rd Division (Relegation Group)	8	2	2	4	16-15	8	LLWDW
10	Sundby 3rd Division (Relegation Group)	8	2	1	5	11-15	7	WLWLD

1pt gap between teamsFrem in relegation zoneSundby in relegation zone

Recent Form

Frem

L2-3IshøjSep 193.

L2-3HolstebroSep 133.

L1-2RoskildeSep 9DBU

W5-2RingstedSep 43.

D2-2VanløseAug 293.

W2-1SydkystenAug 25DBU

W3-1ASA AarhusAug 223.

L0-1FC HelsingorAug 143.

D1-1Hørsholm-UsserødAug 73.

W1-0RingstedAug 4DBU

L1-2Holbæk B&IAug 13.

W1-0Fremad AmagerJul 25FRI

W3-2IshøjJul 21FRI

D0-0VanløseJul 18FRI

D0-0SundbyJun 133.

Sundby

W2-0HolstebroSep 193.

L1-2FC HelsingorSep 133.

L0-7FC MidtjyllandSep 10DBU

W1-0ASA AarhusSep 53.

L0-2RingstedAug 293.

D4-4Hørsholm-UsserødAug 223.

L1-2Holbæk B&IAug 153.

L1-3BrønshøjAug 83.

W4-0Slagelse B&IAug 5DBU

L1-2NæsbyAug 13.

W2-1RingstedJul 25FRI

L1-3Fremad AmagerJul 21FRI

L1-3Nykobing FCJul 18FRI

D0-0FremJun 133.

L1-5Holbæk B&IJun 43.

Squad & Injuries

Frem

21 available

Attackers8

Midfielders6

Defenders6

Goalkeeper1

Sundby

20 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders4

Goalkeeper2