France11 – 1Italy1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.75

The read

France have not scored before half-time in six matches, so the first half often ends level.

• France have been level at half-time in four of their last six matches.
• France have scored no first-half goals in their last six matches.
• France's last six first halves produced 0, 0, 4, 1, 0 and 0 goals.
• France's last two first halves both finished 0-0.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

France have not scored before half-time in six matches, so the first half often ends level. Italy start quickly away from home and France have not scored before half-time in six matches.

• France have been level at half-time in four of their last six matches.
• France have scored no first-half goals in their last six matches.
• Italy scored three goals inside the first half-hour in Bursa.
• Italy average 1.2 first-half goals in away matches.

BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or ItalyEstimated chance74%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.62

The read

Italy score regularly on the road and France concede at home, so both teams finding the net is more likely than not.

• Italy average 2.83 goals and have scored in five of six away matches.
• France concede 1.5 goals per home match in the window.
• Italy's away matches produced both teams scoring in four of six.
• France have conceded 1.0 goal per competitive match across 11 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

France have scored twice in two Nations League games and are missing Mbappé, so reaching two goals is not the likely outcome.

• France have scored one goal in each of their last two matches.
• France's recent six-match scoring block records five goals scored, fewer than one per game.
• France scored only two goals across their two Nations League wins.
• Mbappé and Konaté are out, removing France's leading scorer from the squad.

BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonFrance under 1.5Estimated chance56%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

France's defence has been the stronger unit in this window, giving up almost nothing in their two group games.

• France have conceded one goal per competitive match and kept six clean sheets in 11.
• France have not conceded in either Nations League match.
• Italy failed to score at home to Belgium and were held to one by Norway at home.
• France's home matches average only 1.5 goals conceded.

BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonItaly under 1.5Estimated chance52%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams score most of their goals after the break, pointing to at least two second-half goals.

• France's competitive matches average 1.91 second-half goals combined (1.55 for, 0.36 against).
• Italy's average 2.54 combined (1.62 for, 0.92 against).
• France's home matches average 2.84 second-half goals combined (2.17 for, 0.67 against).
• Italy's away matches average 2.66 second-half goals combined (1.83 for, 0.83 against).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Both teams' home and away corner totals sit under eleven, and France concede few corners.

• France's home matches average 8.5 total corners; Italy's away matches 9.3.
• France average 6.18 corners and concede 2.82 in competitive matches.
• France's last two matches produced eight corners in total.
• Italy's last two matches produced eight and twelve corners.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Italy's matches average nearly four cards and a high-stakes group game should keep the referee busy.

• France's competitive matches average 2.5 yellow cards in total (1.13 for, 1.38 against).
• Italy's average 3.83 (1.58 for, 2.25 against).
• Both teams' most recent match produced three yellow cards.
• Italy's opponents average 2.25 yellow cards per match.