Plymouth Argyle0Burton Albion1

HT 0–0Sat 26 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–936%

Edges0–60%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 13–10On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 3–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 12:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Plymouth have won three straight league games and scored three, three and four, while Burton have taken one win from three away and kept no clean sheet in ten competitive matches.

Plymouth are the likelier winners, though 1.57 leaves little to gain. Four prices offer something: over 2.5 goals at 1.62, both teams to score at 1.67, a goal before half-time at 1.25 and both teams scoring in the first half at 3.8.

Context

Plymouth play Crystal Palace Under-21s at Home Park on Tuesday 22 September, three days before Burton arrive, and the club has priced the tie with significantly reduced admission. It is Plymouth's first outing in this season's competition and the first of two consecutive home games, so Cleverley has to decide how much of a side that has scored four, three and three in its last three league wins he uses or rests. He has already said Jack MacKenzie could be involved in that tie, which points to the Trophy game being used to rebuild players short of competitive minutes. The caveat is that an academy opponent is a weak guide to how any reshuffled unit would cope with a League One away side, so the midweek selection may say less about Saturday's XI than the extra fixture suggests.
- Crystal Palace's academy confirmed its Under-21 side travels to Plymouth Argyle in the EFL Trophy on Tuesday 22 September, 19:00 BST.
- Plymouth Argyle posted on 21 September that Tuesday's tie is their first outing in this season's EFL Trophy.
- Local reporting on 17 September noted significantly reduced admission prices for the Home Park tie.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 12:51 · Europe/Bucharest
Bowyer was blunt after Burton let a two-goal lead become a 2-2 draw with Mansfield Town on 19 September, saying that some people are not learning about the goals his side concede, a theme he had already raised after the 3-0 defeat at Oxford United a week earlier. The same pattern, Burton scoring enough to lead but conceding at both ends, is the sort of game state they will meet at Plymouth, whose last three league wins produced three, three and four goals. Bowyer's language points to defensive organisation and individual decisions rather than to a specific suspension or absence, and he has previously made changes straight after a win, so his Saturday line-up is a live question. The qualification is that the remarks were aimed at a collective failure rather than a named individual, and Burton still took a point from the game in which he made them.
- Burton Albion led 2-0 at home to Mansfield Town on 19 September before drawing 2-2.
- Bowyer said afterwards: 'We talked last week about the speed of learning, some people aren't learning.'
- A week earlier Bowyer said his side had not done their jobs well enough in both penalty boxes in the 3-0 defeat at Oxford United.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 12:51 · Europe/Bucharest
Lewis played in the 3-0 defeat at Oxford United on 12 September and spoke afterwards, then was ruled out of the Mansfield game a week later as, in the club's words, the latest defensive casualty, with Harvey Araujo handed a first senior start. Burton have leaned on a settled group of defenders and had already dealt with Curtis Tilt's suspension and George Evans's injury absence earlier in September, so losing another senior option matters before facing a Plymouth side that has scored three or more in three consecutive league games. The change did not stop Burton leading 2-0 at home, which is a reminder that a patched-up back line is not automatically weaker. Whether Lewis is available for 26 September was not established in the material available.
- Burton's team news for 19 September said Joe Lewis had become the latest defensive casualty, with Harvey Araujo coming in for his first club start.
- BBC Derby Sport reported the same single change from the side beaten at Oxford United.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 12:51 · Europe/Bucharest
Cleverley told his 17 September press conference that he had no new injury concerns and that MacKenzie's situation was encouraging, then confirmed a day later that the defender could be involved in the midweek EFL Trophy tie if he trained well. MacKenzie had already been named among a small group back in training in late August, so this is the end of a gradual build rather than a sudden change. Its value is practical: Plymouth have conceded twice in each of their last two away wins, and a home fixture against a Burton side that has scored in every league game is a game where a senior defensive option helps. The limitation is that involvement in a Trophy tie against an academy side was framed as a possibility rather than a decision, leaving his Saturday role unconfirmed.
- Tom Cleverley said on 17 September that he had no new injury concerns and gave an encouraging update on Jack MacKenzie.
- Cleverley said MacKenzie could be involved in the EFL Trophy tie against Crystal Palace if he came through training over the following days.
- J. MacKenzie started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 12:51 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Plymouth are scoring freely and have a strong home record, while Burton concede regularly and have struggled on their travels.
- Plymouth average 2.0 goals scored and 1.56 conceded in 9 competitive matches.
- Plymouth home league record: 2 wins, 1 loss, 6 goals scored and 3 conceded in 3 games.
- Burton away league record: 1 win, 2 losses, 3 goals scored and 6 conceded in 3 games.
- Plymouth won the most recent H2H 3-0 at home in January 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPlymouth ArgyleEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Plymouth's home pressure and Burton's habit of conceding early chances give the home side the best first-half win chance.
- Plymouth average 0.78 first-half goals for and 0.78 against in 9 competitive matches.
- Burton average 1.0 first-half goals for and 0.6 against in 10 competitive matches.
- Plymouth led at half-time in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostPlymouth ArgyleEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Plymouth finish games strongly and Burton fade after the break, especially on their travels.
- Plymouth average 1.22 second-half goals for and 0.78 against in 9 competitive matches.
- Burton average 0.6 second-half goals for and 1.1 against in 10 competitive matches.
- Burton away second halves average 0.25 goals for and 1.5 against.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostPlymouth ArgyleEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Plymouth are scoring freely and have a strong home record, while Burton concede regularly and have struggled on their travels. Burton's habit of turning games into tight contests gives them a real chance of a draw, though Plymouth's home form makes a share of the points less likely.
- Plymouth average 2.0 goals scored and 1.56 conceded in 9 competitive matches.
- Plymouth home league record: 2 wins, 1 loss, 6 goals scored and 3 conceded in 3 games.
- Burton have drawn 5 of 10 competitive matches this season.
- Plymouth have drawn 1 of 9 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostPlymouth Argyle or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Plymouth's home pressure and Burton's habit of conceding early chances give the home side the best first-half win chance. Both teams often go into the break level, and Burton have shown they can match early tempo away from home.
- Plymouth average 0.78 first-half goals for and 0.78 against in 9 competitive matches.
- Burton average 1.0 first-half goals for and 0.6 against in 10 competitive matches.
- Plymouth average 0.78 first-half goals for and 0.78 against.
- Burton average 1.0 first-half goals for and 0.6 against.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonPlymouth Argyle or DrawEstimated chance74%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Both teams score and concede at high rates, and Burton's recent games have consistently produced at least three goals.
- Plymouth competitive matches average 3.56 total goals (2.0 for, 1.56 against).
- Burton competitive matches average 3.3 total goals (1.6 for, 1.7 against).
- Burton have seen over 2.5 goals in each of their last six matches.
- Plymouth have seen over 2.5 goals in four of their last six.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Burton almost always score, and Plymouth's scoring form makes it likely both teams find the net.
- Plymouth have scored in 8 of 9 competitive matches.
- Burton have scored in 9 of 10 competitive matches.
- Burton have kept zero clean sheets in 10 competitive matches.
- Plymouth have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both teams regularly score before half-time, making a first-half goal highly likely.
- Plymouth's first halves average 1.56 total goals.
- Burton's first halves average 1.6 total goals.
- Plymouth have seen at least one first-half goal in all of their last six matches.
- Burton have seen a first-half goal in five of their last six.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
At least one team often fails to score before half-time, and Plymouth's recent first-half defensive record supports that.
- Plymouth have kept a first-half clean sheet in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Burton have kept a first-half clean sheet in 2 of their last 6 matches.
- Plymouth have seen both teams score in the first half of only 2 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves tend to produce goals, especially with Plymouth's late scoring and Burton's away concessions.
- Plymouth's second halves average 2.0 total goals.
- Burton's second halves average 1.7 total goals.
- Burton have seen over 1.5 second-half goals in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Plymouth have seen over 1.5 second-half goals in 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Plymouth generate plenty of corners at home, and Burton concede a fair number, so the line is close but slightly favors over.
- Plymouth average 6.0 corners for and 4.78 against in 9 competitive matches.
- Burton average 3.1 corners for and 4.8 against in 10 competitive matches.
- Plymouth have seen over 9.5 total corners in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Burton have seen over 9.5 total corners in 1 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The line is very close to the combined averages, and Burton's lower-volume away games make under slightly more likely.
- Plymouth average 26.78 total shots per competitive match.
- Burton average 25.1 total shots per competitive match.
- Burton have seen under 26.5 total shots in 5 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 26.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' combined shots-on-target averages sit below 9.5, and Burton's recent games have consistently finished under.
- Plymouth average 8.22 total shots on target per competitive match.
- Burton average 8.5 total shots on target per competitive match.
- Burton have seen under 9.5 total shots on target in all of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches regularly produce at least three cards, and Burton's recent games have been physical.
- Plymouth matches average about 3.6 total cards (1.11 own yellows, 2.22 opponent yellows).
- Burton matches average about 3.5 total cards (1.56 own yellows, 1.56 opponent yellows, plus reds).
- All of Plymouth's last six matches had at least 3 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance63%