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FremRoskilde

Wed 9 Sept 2026, 16:309 Sept, 16:30

10Probabilities0Priced7Edges65%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 15:38 · Europe/Bucharest

The only market with a positive edge is Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 (our estimate 60% vs implied 58.8%), but the edge is marginal.

Avoid the short-priced clean sheet 'No' bets and first-half over 0.5 goals, where the market is significantly overconfident relative to our model.

Context

Frem's confirmed high-press approach under Patrick Birch Braune and the single-leg cup stage both shape how the match is likely to be contested.

Roskilde compete in the 2. Division, one level above Frem's 3. Division.
In their last two cup matches, Roskilde beat Såby 5-0 on 25 August and Handelsstandens 5-0 on 4 August. Those results came against lower-level opponents, but they show Roskilde can score heavily when facing weaker teams. Frem are also from a lower division, so Roskilde may create chances, though Frem's recent 5-2 win over Ringsted shows they can also score.
- Roskilde beat Såby 5-0 in the DBU Pokalen on 25 August 2026.
- Roskilde beat Handelsstandens 5-0 in the DBU Pokalen on 4 August 2026.
Frem head coach Patrick Birch Braune has set a high-press direction for his side.
Braune's stated brave and aggressive pressing style suggests Frem will try to disrupt Roskilde's build-up high up the pitch. The effect depends on execution and Roskilde's ability to play through pressure, so it is a tactical tendency rather than a guaranteed outcome.
- BK FREM identifies Patrick Birch Braune as its head coach.
- Braune described the intended style as brave and aggressive football with high pressing and energy.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 15:36 · Europe/BucharestFremmernyt august 2026bkfrem.dk · 3 Sep 2026
Frem play in the 3. Division and have mixed recent results.
Frem beat Ringsted 5-2 at home on 4 September, with three first-half goals. That result suggests Frem can be effective at home, but their other recent home matches have been tighter, including a 1-1 draw with Hørsholm-Usserød on 7 August. Roskilde's defense has conceded in several recent matches, so Frem may find opportunities.
- Frem beat Ringsted 5-2 at home in the 3. Division on 4 September 2026.
- Frem drew 1-1 at home with Hørsholm-Usserød on 7 August 2026.
This third-round tie brings FC Roskilde to Frem's Valby ground.
As a single-leg cup match, both teams face immediate elimination, which can raise intensity and influence game-state decisions. The home venue gives Frem a familiar setting, but the cup format itself does not guarantee any particular pattern of play.
- BK FREM lists Frem versus FC Roskilde at home on 9 September at 18:30.
- The club identifies the match as the third round of the Landspokalen.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 15:36 · Europe/BucharestFremmernyt august 2026bkfrem.dk · 3 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Roskilde

1.91fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 52.4%

0.0ppshort

Roskilde's superior scoring rate and H2H edge are offset by Frem's home advantage, leaving no value at the current price.

Both Teams To ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.65fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly score and concede, making both teams scoring likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a decent rate of first-half goals, making at least one first-half goal likely.

Team to ScoreUncertainty band: Strong lean

Roskilde to score

1.17fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

Roskilde's strong scoring record makes a Frem clean sheet unlikely.

Team to ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

Frem to score

1.17fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

Frem's consistent scoring makes a Roskilde clean sheet unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result4 outcomes · top 55%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Roskilde's higher scoring rate and superior recent H2H record give them a slight edge, though Frem's home advantage and cup motivation keep it close.
- Roskilde average 2.1 goals scored per match over last 15, Frem average 1.5.
- Roskilde won 5 of last 15, Frem won 5 of last 15.
- H2H last 5: Roskilde won 3, Frem won 1, 1 draw.
BetBugs · Match WinnerRoskildeEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Frem's home venue and Roskilde's tendency to draw make a Frem win or draw the most likely combined outcome.
- Frem are at home, where they won 3 of last 7 home matches.
- Frem have drawn 4 of last 15 overall.
- Roskilde have drawn 5 of last 15 overall.
BetBugs · Double ChanceFrem or DrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into half-time level, making a first-half draw a reasonable outcome.
- Frem led at half-time in 20% of matches, trailed in 27%.
- Roskilde led at half-time in 33% of matches, trailed in 40%.
- Both teams have a high rate of drawing at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is possible given both teams' draw tendencies, though not highly likely.
- Frem drew 4 of last 15 matches.
- Roskilde drew 5 of last 15 matches.
- H2H last 5: 1 draw.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoubleDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals6 outcomes · top 65%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high combined goal averages and recent H2H meetings have been high-scoring, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Frem average 1.5 goals for and 1.3 against, total 2.8 per match.
- Roskilde average 2.1 goals for and 1.3 against, total 3.4 per match.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly score and concede, making both teams scoring likely.
- Frem scored in 11 of last 15 matches.
- Roskilde scored in 13 of last 15 matches.
- Both teams conceded at least one goal in 10 of Frem's last 15 and 9 of Roskilde's last 15.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a decent rate of first-half goals, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Frem average 0.6 first-half goals for and 0.6 against.
- Roskilde average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.7 against.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.3 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be higher scoring for both teams, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Frem average 0.9 second-half goals for (1.5 total - 0.6 first half).
- Roskilde average 1.4 second-half goals for (2.1 total - 0.7 first half).
- Combined second-half goal average is 2.3 per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Roskilde's strong scoring record makes a Frem clean sheet unlikely.
- Frem conceded in 11 of last 15 matches.
- Roskilde scored in 13 of last 15 matches.
- Roskilde average 2.1 goals per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreRoskilde to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Frem's consistent scoring makes a Roskilde clean sheet unlikely.
- Roskilde conceded in 9 of last 15 matches.
- Frem scored in 11 of last 15 matches.
- Frem average 1.5 goals per match.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreFrem to scoreEstimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 4W

L1-4FremvRoskildeFeb 19, 2026FRI

L4-1RoskildevFremFeb 7, 2026FRI

L0-1FremvRoskildeFeb 1, 2025FRI

W0-1RoskildevFremMar 2, 2024FRI

L0-2FremvRoskildeJul 29, 2023FRI

Roskilde: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Frem

W5-2RingstedSep 43.

D2-2VanløseAug 293.

W2-1SydkystenAug 25DBU

W3-1ASA AarhusAug 223.

L0-1FC HelsingorAug 143.

D1-1Hørsholm-UsserødAug 73.

W1-0RingstedAug 4DBU

L1-2Holbæk B&IAug 13.

W1-0Fremad AmagerJul 25FRI

W3-2IshøjJul 21FRI

D0-0VanløseJul 18FRI

D0-0SundbyJun 133.

D2-2OdderJun 63.

L0-2Vejgaard BMay 303.

L1-3Holbæk B&IMay 233.

Roskilde

W1-0VSK ÅrhusSep 52.

D2-2Nykobing FCAug 282.

W5-0SåbyAug 25DBU

D1-1Fremad AmagerAug 212.

D1-1MiddelfartAug 152.

W2-1B 93Aug 72.

W5-0HandelsstandensAug 4DBU

D2-2NaestvedJul 312.

D3-3Hørsholm-UsserødJul 25FRI

D2-2Fremad AmagerJul 18FRI

L0-1HB KogeJul 11FRI

D1-1AB CopenhagenJul 7FRI

W3-2HIKJun 62.

W2-1Thisted FCMay 292.

L1-3Vendsyssel FFMay 242.

Squad & Injuries

Frem

21 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders7

Goalkeeper1

Roskilde

19 available

Attackers6

Midfielders6

Defenders6

Goalkeeper1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Frem or Draw

Over 2.5

Roskilde

Yes

Over 0.5

Roskilde to score

Frem to score

Result4 outcomes · top 55%

Goals6 outcomes · top 65%

Markets to Avoid

@ 1.91

Over 0.5

Roskilde to score

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Frem

Roskilde

Squad & Injuries

Frem

Roskilde