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Predictions graded

Bonnyrigg Rose1Airdrieonians6

HT 1–4Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges2–529%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 16:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Two divisions separate these sides, but Airdrieonians' away form is modest:

2W-1D-4L, 1.14 goals a game, three blanks in seven. Bonnyrigg have scored in every home match, including a 6-1 win on 19 September. Airdrieonians' narrow wins make them the likelier winner, but 1.85 is not a price that justifies it. Worth noting: the draw at 4.2, level at half-time at 2.5, under 2.5 goals at 2.5 and both teams not to score at 2.4.

Context

Airdrieonians have had the upper hand in this fixture, winning both meetings in the record and keeping a clean sheet in each.
The 3-0 on 15 July 2025 and the 1-0 on 29 July 2023 are only two matches, so this is a thin sample rather than a settled pattern. Both came in the League Cup, and both ended with Bonnyrigg failing to find the net. The counterweight is current form: Bonnyrigg have scored in all seven home matches this season.
- 15 July 2025, League Cup: Airdrie United 3-0 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic.
Bonnyrigg Rose arrive on the back of their heaviest home win of the season, in the Lowland League on 19 September.
The six goals came against Lowland League opposition, so the margin says more about their home scoring habit than about how they will handle a League One defence. It does sit alongside a home split of seven matches in which they scored every time, at 2.29 goals per game. Airdrieonians have conceded 1.86 goals per away match, which is why this result keeps the tie from looking like a formality.
- 19 September 2026, Lowland League: Bonnyrigg Rose 6-1 Stirling University at home, 3-0 up at half-time and 3-1 in the second half.
Airdrieonians' season splits sharply by venue, and the away half of that split is the weaker one.
Four of their five clean sheets in 15 competitive matches have come at home, and only one has come away. An away scoring average of 1.14 goals per game leaves little margin, and they failed to score in three of seven road matches. Bonnyrigg Rose scoring in every home game is the main reason this tie looks closer than the two-division gap suggests.
- Away split 2026-27: 7 matches, 2W-1D-4L, 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per match, one clean sheet, failed to score in three.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Airdrieonians play two levels higher and have won both head-to-head meetings without conceding, though their away scoring rate is low enough to keep this close.
- Airdrieonians are two divisions above Bonnyrigg Rose (League One vs Lowland League) and won both previous meetings 3-0 and 1-0 in the League Cup.
- Airdrieonians have won three of their last four (1-0, 1-0, 2-1) and kept five clean sheets in 15 competitive matches.
- Bonnyrigg Rose are 4W-0D-3L at home this season, scoring in all seven home matches at 2.29 goals per game.
- Airdrieonians away form is modest: 2W-1D-4L with 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per away match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAirdrieoniansEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Both teams' first-half goal numbers are low, particularly Airdrie's, making a level half-time score the single most likely outcome.
- Airdrieonians average 0.53 first-half goals scored and 0.33 conceded across 15 competitive matches.
- Airdrieonians away first halves average 0.71 scored and 0.29 conceded.
- Bonnyrigg Rose were level at half-time in four of their last six matches.
- First-half scoring on both sides is low relative to full-match totals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Airdrieonians concede heavily after the break away from home, which gives Bonnyrigg a good chance of winning the second half even if they trail overall.
- Airdrieonians concede 1.2 second-half goals per match overall and 1.57 per away match.
- Bonnyrigg Rose average 1.14 second-half goals both overall and at home.
- Airdrieonians lost 1-3 at home to Stirling Albion in the Challenge Cup, conceding three second-half goals.
- Bonnyrigg Rose scored three second-half goals in their 6-1 home win on 19 September.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostBonnyrigg RoseEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Airdrieonians play two levels higher and have won both head-to-head meetings without conceding, though their away scoring rate is low enough to keep this close. Airdrieonians win narrowly and score little, so a tight 90 minutes that stays level is a realistic route given the gap in level is not matched by their away output.
- Airdrieonians are two divisions above Bonnyrigg Rose (League One vs Lowland League) and won both previous meetings 3-0 and 1-0 in the League Cup.
- Airdrieonians have won three of their last four (1-0, 1-0, 2-1) and kept five clean sheets in 15 competitive matches.
- Airdrieonians have drawn three of 15 competitive matches, including 0-0 at home to East Fife in their most recent league home game before Alloa.
- Airdrieonians average 1.07 goals scored per match, so a single-goal margin is the most common shape of their games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or AirdrieoniansEstimated chance76%

Goals7 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' home and away splits point to an open game, with Bonnyrigg scoring consistently at home and Airdrie conceding regularly on the road.
- Bonnyrigg Rose home matches average 3.57 total goals (2.29 scored, 1.29 conceded) across seven games.
- Airdrieonians away matches average 3.0 total goals (1.14 scored, 1.86 conceded) across seven games.
- Bonnyrigg Rose have scored in all seven home matches and conceded in six of them.
- Airdrieonians have conceded 1.53 goals per game overall across 15 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bonnyrigg almost always score at home and rarely keep clean sheets, while Airdrie's away record shows they score in a majority of their road games.
- Bonnyrigg Rose have scored in all seven home matches and in 13 of 14 competitive matches overall.
- Airdrieonians have scored in four of seven away matches and failed to score in three.
- Bonnyrigg Rose have kept only one clean sheet in seven home matches.
- Airdrieonians have kept five clean sheets in 15 competitive matches, but only one of those came away.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The jump in opponent quality means Bonnyrigg's home scoring rate against lower-division sides may not carry over, and Airdrie have been keeping clean sheets lately.
- Airdrieonians have kept five clean sheets in 15 competitive matches, including two 1-0 wins in their last three games.
- Airdrieonians are two divisions above Bonnyrigg Rose, with a clear gap in level of opposition faced.
- Bonnyrigg Rose average 2.29 goals per home match against Lowland League opposition.
- Bonnyrigg Rose failed to score only once in 14 competitive matches, so a full blank is unlikely.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonBonnyrigg Rose under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Airdrieonians' season-long scoring output is under one and a half goals per game in almost every split, making two or more away goals the less likely outcome.
- Airdrieonians have scored 10 goals across 15 competitive matches, an average of 1.07.
- Airdrieonians' away scoring average is 1.14 per match from seven games.
- Airdrieonians failed to score in three of seven away matches.
- Bonnyrigg Rose have kept four clean sheets in 14 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostAirdrieonians under 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bonnyrigg rarely keep clean sheets at home, and Airdrieonians find a goal in a majority of their away games.
- Bonnyrigg Rose kept one clean sheet in seven home matches.
- Airdrieonians scored in four of seven away matches.
- Bonnyrigg Rose conceded in six of seven home matches, an average of 1.29 goals.
- Airdrieonians scored twice away at Peterhead in their most recent match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAirdrieonians to scoreEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bonnyrigg's record of scoring in every home match makes it likely Airdrie concede at least once.
- Bonnyrigg Rose scored in all seven home matches and in 13 of 14 competitive matches.
- Airdrieonians have one clean sheet in seven away matches and concede 1.86 per away game.
- Bonnyrigg Rose scored six at home on 19 September.
- Airdrieonians kept five clean sheets in 15 competitive matches overall.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBonnyrigg Rose to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bonnyrigg's consistent home scoring makes an Airdrie win without conceding an uncommon outcome.
- Bonnyrigg Rose scored in all seven home matches and in 13 of 14 competitive matches.
- Airdrieonians have one clean sheet in seven away matches and concede 1.86 per away game.
- Airdrieonians kept five clean sheets in 15 competitive matches but most came at home.
- Bonnyrigg Rose found the net in both Challenge Cup ties this season.
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
First-half goals occur regularly in Bonnyrigg's matches and Airdrie have scored before the break in most of their recent games.
- Bonnyrigg Rose average 1.0 first-half goal per match and 1.14 at home.
- Airdrieonians average 0.53 first-half goals per match and 0.71 away.
- Bonnyrigg Rose have conceded first-half goals in recent home matches, including 3-0 up at half-time and 1-0 down at Hill of Beath.
- Airdrieonians scored first-half goals in four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes it unlikely that both teams find the net before the break.
- Airdrieonians concede only 0.33 first-half goals per competitive match and 0.29 away.
- Airdrieonians average 0.53 first-half goals per match.
- Bonnyrigg Rose concede 0.71 first-half goals per home match.
- Airdrieonians reached half-time 0-0 in both the East Fife and St. Mirren U21 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Airdrieonians score very little after half-time and Bonnyrigg concede few second-half goals at home, favouring a quiet final period.
- Airdrieonians average 0.53 second-half goals per competitive match and 0.43 away.
- Bonnyrigg Rose concede only 0.57 second-half goals per home match.
- Airdrieonians' away second-half scoring average is well below one goal per game.
- Airdrieonians and East Fife played out a 0-0 draw with nothing after the break.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance54%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 1W

L3-0Airdrie UnitedvBonnyrigg Rose AthleticJul 15, 2025LEA

W0-1Bonnyrigg Rose AthleticvAirdrie UnitedJul 29, 2023LEA

2 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Bonnyrigg Rose

W6-1Stirling UniversitySep 19FOO

W2-1Gala Fairydean RoversSep 16FOO

L0-2Civil Service StrollersSep 12FOO

L1-3East KilbrideSep 8CHA

L1-2Hill Of Beath HawthornAug 29FOO

W2-1Rangers U21Aug 25CHA

W2-0Berwick RangersAug 22FOO

W1-0Annan AthleticAug 11CHA

W4-1East StirlingshireAug 8FOO

L1-2BrechinAug 1FOO

W4-0Bo'ness UnitedJul 28FOO

W3-0Musselburgh AthleticJul 25FOO

D1-1Edinburgh CityJul 4FRI

L1-2Linlithgow RoseApr 18FOO

D2-2Broxburn AthleticApr 11FOO

Airdrieonians

W2-1PeterheadSep 19LEA

W1-0Alloa AthleticSep 12LEA

W1-0St. Mirren U21Sep 8CHA

L1-2Queen of the SouthSep 5LEA

D0-0East FifeAug 29LEA

L1-3Stirling AlbionAug 25CHA

L1-3Ross CountyAug 22LEA

L0-4Hamilton AcademicalAug 15LEA

W3-1DumbartonAug 11CHA

D1-1East KilbrideAug 8LEA

D0-0Cove RangersAug 1LEA

L0-3Ross CountyJul 25LEA

W3-0Annan AthleticJul 18LEA

L0-1ClydeJul 14LEA

L2-4DundeeJul 11LEA

Squad & Injuries

Bonnyrigg Rose

18 available

Attackers5

Midfielders10

Defenders1

Goalkeeper2

Airdrieonians

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

No

Draw

Draw

Draw or Airdrieonians

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals7 of 10 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Bonnyrigg Rose

Airdrieonians

Squad & Injuries

Bonnyrigg Rose

Airdrieonians