3. DivisionFull time

Predictions graded

Holbaek0Vejgaard BK0

Sat 13 Jun 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–529%

Edges1–325%

Yellow CardsYellow Cards 0–0Red CardsRed Cards 0–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Jun 2026, 23:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Holbaek are safe and in top form, while Vejgaard are virtually relegated and need a miracle.

The market heavily favors Holbaek, but their lack of motivation makes the 1.17 home win poor value. The only slight edge is over 3.5 goals at 1.53, but tread carefully given the motivational mismatch.

Context

Holbaek lead the group with 53 points, safe from relegation.
- Vejgaard are fourth on 35 points, inside the relegation zone and need a miracle to survive.
- Holbaek have no table pressure, while Vejgaard face a near-impossible survival task.
Vejgaard are three points behind BK Frem with one round left.
- Goal difference: Vejgaard -23 vs BK Frem -2.
- Vejgaard must win by a large margin and hope Frem lose heavily.
Holbaek's official site posted 'Ny cheftræner i HBI i sæsonen 2026/27' on 10 March 2026.
- The announcement came during the run-in, potentially distracting players.
- The current coach and some players may have reduced commitment.
Holbaek were deducted 6 points on 9 March 2026 for a tax/payments case from 2021-2023.
- The club was also fined DKK 100,000.
- Despite the deduction, they still topped the group, but the saga could linger.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Holbaek

1.18fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 85%

0.0ppshort

Holbaek's dominant form (5 straight wins) and recent H2H superiority over a Vejgaard side that has lost 3 of 5 and is already relegated make a home win highly likely.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Holbaek or Draw

1.05fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 95%

−10.0ppshort

Holbaek's strong home form and Vejgaard's poor away record, combined with the hosts' unbeaten run, make a Holbaek win or draw very probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Holbaek's dominant form (5 straight wins) and recent H2H superiority over a Vejgaard side that has lost 3 of 5 and is already relegated make a home win highly likely.
- Holbaek won last 5 matches, scoring 2+ in each (last 5 matches).
- Vejgaard lost 3 of last 5, conceding 2+ in 4 of those (last 5 matches).
- Holbaek won last 2 H2H meetings, including 2-0 away in May 2026.
- Holbaek home record: 4W-4D-3L, 29 goals scored in 11 home games (season).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHolbaekEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Holbaek's strong home form and Vejgaard's poor away record, combined with the hosts' unbeaten run, make a Holbaek win or draw very probable.
- Holbaek unbeaten in last 5 (5W-0D-0L).
- Vejgaard away record: 2W-2D-6L, 27 goals conceded in 10 away games (season).
- Holbaek lost only 3 of 11 home games this season (season).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHolbaek or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Holbaek's strong starts and Vejgaard's slow openings suggest the hosts are likely to be ahead at halftime.
- Holbaek led at halftime in 3 of last 5 matches (last 5 matches).
- Vejgaard trailed at halftime in 3 of last 5 matches (last 5 matches).
- Holbaek led at halftime in 40% of season matches vs Vejgaard's 20% (season).
BetBugs · First Half Winnernot gradableHolbaekEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Holbaek's ability to control matches from the start, as seen in recent wins, makes a halftime/fulltime double a reasonable outcome.
- Holbaek won both halves in 2 of last 5 matches (last 5 matches).
- Vejgaard lost both halves in 2 of last 5 matches (last 5 matches).
- Holbaek led at halftime and won in 3 of last 5 matches (last 5 matches).
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableHolbaek/HolbaekEstimated chance50%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and their H2H history show a strong trend toward high-scoring games, with Holbaek consistently scoring multiple goals.
- Holbaek's last 5 matches averaged 3.8 total goals (last 5 matches).
- Vejgaard's last 5 matches averaged 2.8 total goals (last 5 matches).
- 4 of last 5 H2H meetings had over 2.5 goals (H2H).
- Holbaek scored 2+ in 14 of last 15 matches (last 15 matches).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
While Holbaek are strong, they have shown defensive vulnerability at home, and Vejgaard have managed to score in recent away games, suggesting both teams are likely to find the net.
- Holbaek conceded in 3 of last 5 matches (last 5 matches).
- Vejgaard scored in 3 of last 5 matches (last 5 matches).
- Both teams scored in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings (H2H).
- Holbaek kept only 2 clean sheets in last 5 home games (last 5 home matches).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Holbaek's consistent scoring form, especially at home where they average over 2 goals per game, makes it very likely they will score at least twice.
- Holbaek scored 2+ in 14 of last 15 matches (last 15 matches).
- Holbaek scored 2+ in 8 of 11 home games this season (season).
- Holbaek scored 2+ in each of last 5 matches (last 5 matches).
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostHolbaek over 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vejgaard's away scoring has been limited, and Holbaek's defense has been relatively solid at home, making it unlikely the visitors score more than once.
- Vejgaard scored 1 or fewer in 4 of last 5 matches (last 5 matches).
- Vejgaard away goals per game: 1.3 this season (season).
- Holbaek conceded 1 or fewer in 3 of last 5 home matches (last 5 home matches).
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonVejgaard BK under 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Holbaek's tendency to score early, combined with Vejgaard's habit of conceding in the first half, points to at least one goal before the break.
- Holbaek scored a first-half goal in 4 of last 5 matches (last 5 matches).
- Vejgaard conceded a first-half goal in 4 of last 5 matches (last 5 matches).
- Holbaek led at halftime in 40% of matches this season (season average).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Corner stats are missing, but based on the expected open, attacking nature of the game with Holbaek pushing forward, a higher corner count is plausible, though confidence is low due to lack of evidence.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches (data gap).
- Holbaek average corners per game: 0 (data missing).
- Vejgaard average corners per game: 0 (data missing).
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

W0-2Vejgaard BvHolbæk B&IMay 9, 20263.

L3-1Vejgaard BvHolbæk B&INov 15, 20253.

D2-2Holbæk B&IvVejgaard BOct 11, 20253.

D2-2Vejgaard BvHolbæk B&IOct 21, 20233.

L2-0Holbæk B&IvVejgaard BSep 30, 20233.

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

3. Division 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	Holbaek Relegation Round	22	9	5	8	43-33	26	WWWWW
10	Vejgaard BK Relegation Round	21	6	6	9	27-43	24	WWLLL

2pt gap between teamsHolbaek in relegation zoneVejgaard BK in relegation zone

Recent Form

Holbaek

W5-1SundbyJun 43.

W2-1LysengMay 303.

W3-1FremMay 233.

W4-2OdderMay 163.

W2-0Vejgaard BMay 93.

W2-0SundbyMay 23.

W4-1FremApr 253.

W2-0LysengApr 183.

W4-1OdderApr 113.

W2-0BrønshøjApr 63.

L1-5Nykobing FCApr 23.

L0-1FA 2000Mar 283.

D2-2SundbyMar 213.

D1-1LysengMar 143.

L1-2NæsbyMar 73.

Vejgaard BK

W2-0LysengJun 53.

W2-0FremMay 303.

L0-2OdderMay 223.

L0-1SundbyMay 163.

L0-2Holbæk B&IMay 93.

L1-2LysengMay 23.

W3-0OdderApr 263.

L0-5FremApr 183.

L0-2SundbyApr 113.

L0-5Nykobing FCApr 63.

W1-0LysengApr 23.

L0-3SundbyMar 283.

L1-2NæsbyMar 213.

W3-2VanløseMar 143.

W3-2OdderMar 73.

Squad & Injuries

Holbaek

19 available

Attackers4

Midfielders7

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

Vejgaard BK

18 available

Attackers2

Midfielders7

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Holbaek0Vejgaard BK0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 3.5

Holbaek

Holbaek or Draw

Holbaek

Holbaek at half-time / Holbaek at full-time

Over 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 2 landed

Goals1 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Holbaek

Holbaek or Draw

Holbaek at half-time / Holbaek at full-time

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Holbaek

Vejgaard BK

Squad & Injuries

Holbaek

Vejgaard BK