Independiente Santa Fe0Deportivo Cali1

HT 0–1Wed 23 Sept 2026, 01:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 19–9On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 10–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 21:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Santa Fe's unbeaten home run and four wins in the last five meetings with Cali meet a Cali side on back-to-back league wins but missing their goalkeeper and two senior attackers.

The likeliest shape is a tight, low-scoring Santa Fe night. Of the reviewed prices, only a goalless first half at 2.4 and the two teams level at half-time at 2.0 carry an edge; a Santa Fe win at 2.1 and Santa Fe to win or draw at 1.29 ask more than the form supports.

Context

Deportivo Cali's medical report of 21 September classifies Nicolás Benedetti's left-ankle injury as grade II, and the 20-man list for El Campín omits him rather than treating him as a possible late call. He had three goals and one assist across four league appearances in this Clausura, making him the most productive creative player in the recent Cali side. His absence lands in the same week as Avilés Hurtado's quadriceps tear and Pedro Gallese's Peru call-up, so Dudamel is rebuilding the middle and the front line together. Cali added Mondragón and Bacca to the squad and still have Bello, Reynoso and Dinenno, so replacements exist, but the specific loss is the player who had been joining their attacks.
- Nicolás Benedetti has a grade II ligament injury in his left ankle and has begun treatment.
- Cali's 20-man list for the Santa Fe game leaves out Benedetti along with Gallese, Hurtado and Suárez.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 21:16 · Europe/Bucharest
Pedro Gallese is in Peru's squad for four friendlies between 26 September and 6 October, and Cali's 20-man list for El Campín leaves him out while adding reserve goalkeeper Santiago Mondragón. He has been the first-choice goalkeeper for both club and country, so the trip removes the most protected position from an already reworked side. The specific uncertainty is that no starting XI has been named, and Mondragón is competing with the other reserve keepers in the squad rather than arriving as an automatic replacement. Cali have had four days since the Cúcuta win, so there has been time to prepare the change, but it remains a first-choice switch behind a midfield that also loses Benedetti and Hurtado.
- Pedro Gallese is in Peru's 26-man squad for four friendlies between 26 September and 6 October.
- Cali's 20-man list for the Santa Fe game omits Gallese and adds reserve goalkeeper Santiago Mondragón.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 21:16 · Europe/Bucharest
Santa Fe's unavailable group for this fixture covers defenders Kevin Balanta, Mateo Puerta and Juan Quintero, midfielder Emerson Rodríguez and attacker Omar Fernández. Balanta and Omar Fernández have been out since the August Copa Sudamericana run, so Repetto has already built recent teams without them, and he changed six players for the 4-1 win at Alianza Valledupar on 19 September. That makes the practical effect depth and rotation rather than a surprise late reshuffle, with the matchday squad for Cali already trimmed to 20. The counterpoint is that no recovery dates accompany the five absences, so how long each lasts is open.
- Santa Fe's absentees for this fixture are Emerson Rodríguez, Mateo Puerta, Juan Quintero, Kevin Balanta and Omar Fernández, all through injury.
- Emerson Rodríguez and Mateo Puerta are listed as injured after the 4-1 win at Alianza Valledupar on 19 September.
- Omar Fernández and Kevin Balanta have been unavailable through the Copa Sudamericana run in August and September.
- Santa Fe's 20-man squad for Cali contains no place for the five.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 21:16 · Europe/BucharestFotMob: Santa Fe vs Deportivo Cali availabilitywww.fotmob.com · 22 Sep 2026
Avilés Hurtado's right-quadriceps tear with an associated hematoma appears in the same 21 September medical report as Benedetti's ankle injury, and both players are off the 20-man list for Bogotá. Hurtado is an experienced attacking option rather than a fringe name, and his rehabilitation has started without a stated return date. The combined effect is that Cali travel with Bacca, Dinenno, Bello and Steven Rodríguez as the senior attacking alternatives, while the creative supply behind them loses Benedetti. The second absence is less individually decisive than Benedetti's, but it removes a senior option from the same unit and narrows what Dudamel can change from the bench.
- Cali's medical report on 21 September lists Avilés Hurtado with a myofibrillar tear in his right quadriceps and an associated hematoma.
- Hurtado is absent from the 20-man list for the Santa Fe game.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Sep 2026, 21:16 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.10
The read
Santa Fe are unbeaten at home in this run and have dominated the recent meetings, while Cali travel without their first-choice goalkeeper and three regular attackers.
- Santa Fe are unbeaten at home in the tracked window: 5 wins and 5 draws in 10 home matches
- Santa Fe home split: 1.4 goals for, 0.6 against, 7 clean sheets in 10 games
- Santa Fe have won four and drawn one of the last five meetings with Cali
- Cali's away split in the same window is 4 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses with one clean sheet in eight
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIndependiente Santa FeEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Both teams score few goals before the break and Santa Fe's home first halves have been especially quiet, making a level half-time score the most likely result.
- Santa Fe average 0.47 first-half goals for and 0.13 against across 15 matches
- Cali average 0.79 first-half goals for and 0.21 against across 14 matches
- Three of Santa Fe's last six matches were level at half-time
- Santa Fe have conceded once before half-time in 10 home games
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Santa Fe do most of their scoring after the break at home while Cali concede regularly in second halves on their travels.
- Santa Fe home split: 0.9 second-half goals for, 0.5 against
- Cali away split: 0.875 second-half goals for, 1.0 against
- Santa Fe average 1.07 second-half goals against 0.47 before the break
- Cali have conceded 1.0 goals per away game after half-time
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostIndependiente Santa FeEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Santa Fe are unbeaten at home in this run and have dominated the recent meetings, while Cali travel without their first-choice goalkeeper and three regular attackers. Santa Fe's home games split evenly between wins and draws and their recent matches have often stayed tight, so a level result is a live outcome.
- Santa Fe are unbeaten at home in the tracked window: 5 wins and 5 draws in 10 home matches
- Santa Fe home split: 1.4 goals for, 0.6 against, 7 clean sheets in 10 games
- Five of Santa Fe's 10 home matches in the window ended level
- Three of Santa Fe's last six matches overall were draws
BetBugs · Double ChancelostIndependiente Santa Fe or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Santa Fe's home first halves are low-scoring but their defence has been tight early, giving them the better share of a first-half lead. Both teams score few goals before the break and Santa Fe's home first halves have been especially quiet, making a level half-time score the most likely result.
- Santa Fe average 0.5 first-half goals per home game
- Cali average 0.25 first-half goals conceded per away game
- Santa Fe average 0.47 first-half goals for and 0.13 against across 15 matches
- Cali average 0.79 first-half goals for and 0.21 against across 14 matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostIndependiente Santa Fe or DrawEstimated chance81%

Goals3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Santa Fe's home games are low-scoring and Cali's attacking options are reduced, so fewer than three goals is the more likely outcome.
- Santa Fe home matches average 2.0 goals in total this window
- Cali away matches average 2.88 goals in total
- Santa Fe have 8 clean sheets in 15 competitive matches
- Cali have scored 12 goals in 14 competitive matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Santa Fe's home defence has been very hard to break and Cali's attacking absences make a clean sheet for the hosts the more likely single outcome.
- Santa Fe have kept 8 clean sheets in 15 competitive matches
- Cali kept only 1 clean sheet in 8 away matches in the window
- Santa Fe home goals-against average is 0.6
- Cali have scored in 6 of 8 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cali have been scoring early in recent league games and the two first-half scoring rates combined point just above an even chance of a goal before the break.
- Cali average 0.79 first-half goals for and 0.21 against in the window
- Santa Fe average 0.47 first-half goals for and 0.13 against
- Cali have scored in the first half of each of their last three league matches
- Santa Fe have scored only 7 first-half goals in 15 competitive matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cali's away games produce few corners of their own and Santa Fe's home average sits right on the line, so just under is the slight preference.
- Cali away matches average 1.8 corners for and 4.8 against across 5 tracked matches
- Santa Fe home matches average 8.0 corners in total across 9 tracked matches
- Cali's tracked away matches produced corner totals of 5, 10 and 5
- Santa Fe have recorded 4.6 corners per home match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 7.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent games have been shot-heavy and Cali's away matches in particular feature a high volume at both ends.
- Santa Fe's last six matches produced shot totals of 25, 19, 22, 30, 34 and 33
- Cali away matches average 11.4 shots for and 17.0 against across 5 tracked matches
- Santa Fe home matches average 12.4 shots for and 11.9 against
- Cali's last three league matches produced shot totals of 22, 40 and 31
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 24.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent on-target totals have been climbing for Santa Fe and Cali's away games average close to eleven combined, pushing the over slightly ahead.
- Santa Fe's last six matches produced on-target totals of 9, 7, 6, 6, 12 and 15
- Cali away matches average 4.4 shots on target for and 6.4 against
- Santa Fe home matches average 3.8 shots on target for and 3.7 against
- Cali's tracked away matches produced on-target totals of 9, 15 and 12
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Cali pick up more cards than most teams and their recent away games have produced busy card counts, with Santa Fe's opponents also collecting regularly.
- Cali's tracked away matches produced card totals of 5, 10 and 8
- Cali average 3.0 yellow cards and their opponents 3.3 in tracked matches
- Santa Fe's last six matches produced card totals of 5, 1, 5, 7, 4 and 7 including red cards
- Santa Fe's opponents average 2.5 yellow cards per match
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance62%