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Predictions graded

Walsall1Stevenage6

HT 1–4Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–944%

Edges1–517%

PossPossession 41%–59%ShotsShots 7–22On targetOn target 1–11CornersCorners 3–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 15:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Walsall's tight, low-scoring home games against a higher-division Stevenage side that has been blanked twice away this month is the tension.

A cagey cup tie settled by few goals looks likely, with Walsall marginally the stronger side at home. Three prices hold up: both teams to score – No at 1.88, a goalless first half at 2.8 and the first half level at 2.15. Under 2.5 at 1.78 offers little, and Walsall to win at 2.63 asks more than their record justifies.

Context

The one recent sample between these clubs came in this competition and went the visitors' way on Stevenage's own ground, so Walsall carry the better recent head-to-head memory into this tie. It is a single match from more than nine months ago, which limits how much weight it can bear.
- 2 December 2025 – EFL Trophy: Stevenage 1-2 Walsall
- Most recent of five head-to-head meetings listed between August 2021 and December 2025
This is the clearest sign that Stevenage can turn an away game into a rout late on, and it is the main risk to any low-goals reading of this tie. It is one match inside a six-game away sample, so it describes a capability rather than a pattern.
- 5 September 2026 – League One: Barnsley 1-5 Stevenage
- One of six Stevenage away matches in the source window
Walsall created more than enough to win that game and still drew a blank, which fits a home side that grinds out tight, low-scoring matches rather than one that puts teams away. The single shot on target they allowed points the other way, to a defence that gives up very little at home.
- 12 September 2026 – League Two: Walsall 0-0 Rochdale
- Walsall: 24 shots, 7 on target; Rochdale: 9 shots, 1 on target
A goal a game at home is a modest return and supports a tight read on this tie, while the four conceded show the home side rarely gets opened up. The counterweight is the visitors' away threat, which has already produced one five-goal afternoon this season.
- Walsall home record to 19 September 2026: 5 matches, 2W-2D-1L
- 5 goals scored and 4 conceded in those 5 home matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.63
The read
Walsall have been hard to break down at home, while Stevenage have lost five of their eleven competitive matches.
- Walsall: 5W-4D-2L in 11 competitive matches, 1.36 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game
- Walsall at home: 2W-2D-1L with 4 goals conceded in 5 matches
- Stevenage: 3W-3D-5L in 11 competitive matches, conceding 1.36 per game
- Last meeting in this competition: Stevenage 1-2 Walsall, December 2025
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostWalsallEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.15
The read
First halves have usually been tight, with the two teams combining for about a goal before the break.
- Walsall home first halves produce 1.0 goal per game
- Stevenage away first halves produce 1.0 goal per game
- 7 of the combined last 12 matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance49%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves have often been level for both sides, and neither team has dominated that period consistently.
- Walsall home second halves produce 0.8 goals per game
- Stevenage away second halves produce 1.33 goals per game
- 7 of the combined last 12 second halves finished level
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Walsall have been hard to break down at home, while Stevenage have lost five of their eleven competitive matches. Stevenage compete a level higher and have shown they can score freely on their travels even while conceding chances.
- Walsall: 5W-4D-2L in 11 competitive matches, 1.36 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game
- Walsall at home: 2W-2D-1L with 4 goals conceded in 5 matches
- Stevenage play in League One; Walsall are in League Two
- Stevenage away: 2W-2D-2L with 8 goals in 6 matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonWalsall or StevenageEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Walsall have the better first-half numbers at home, while Stevenage have barely scored before the break. First halves have usually been tight, with the two teams combining for about a goal before the break.
- Walsall first half at home: 0.6 goals scored, 0.4 conceded per game
- Stevenage first half away: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded per game
- Walsall home first halves produce 1.0 goal per game
- Stevenage away first halves produce 1.0 goal per game
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostWalsall or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Walsall's home games have been the lowest-scoring part of their record, and Stevenage have blanked away twice recently.
- Walsall home matches: 9 goals in 5 matches (1.8 per game)
- Walsall kept clean sheets in four of their last six matches
- Stevenage were shut out in two of their three most recent away matches
- Stevenage away: 6 conceded in 6 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Both teams have blanked recently, and Walsall's home matches have produced very few goals.
- Walsall kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Stevenage failed to score in 2 of their 3 most recent away matches
- Walsall conceded only 4 goals in 5 home matches
- Walsall failed to score in 3 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Walsall's home scoring has been limited to about a goal a game, and they have had several blanks.
- Walsall: 5 goals in 5 home matches
- Walsall's last six matches include three 0-0 draws
- Stevenage conceded 1.0 goal per away match across 6 matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonWalsall under 1.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Walsall have given up very little at home, which limits Stevenage's chances of scoring twice.
- Walsall conceded 4 goals in 5 home matches (0.8 per game)
- Stevenage were shut out at Leyton Orient and Peterborough this month
- Stevenage average 1.33 goals per away match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostStevenage under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stevenage carry enough away scoring threat that Walsall's home clean-sheet run is unlikely to hold every week.
- Stevenage average 1.18 goals per game and 1.33 on their travels
- Stevenage scored two or more in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Walsall's home clean-sheet record covers only 5 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonStevenage to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Stevenage have conceded in nearly all of their recent matches, so Walsall scoring is the more likely side of this line.
- Stevenage conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches
- Walsall scored in 3 of their last 6 matches
- Stevenage concede 1.36 goals per game overall
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonWalsall to scoreEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two teams' first-half numbers point to roughly a goal before the break, which makes a goalless half the less likely side.
- Walsall home first halves: 1.0 goal per game (0.6 for, 0.4 against)
- Stevenage away first halves: 1.0 goal per game (0.33 for, 0.67 against)
- 6 of the combined last 12 matches had a first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in these teams' recent games have often produced one goal or none.
- Walsall home second halves: 0.4 scored and 0.4 conceded per game
- Stevenage away second halves: 1.0 scored and 0.33 conceded per game
- 7 of the combined last 12 second halves had one goal or none
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Walsall's home games have generated corner totals around eleven, though Stevenage's away games are quieter in that department.
- Walsall home corners: 7.2 for, 4.4 against (11.6 total per game)
- Stevenage away corners: 3.3 for, 4.3 against (7.6 total per game)
- Walsall's four most recent home matches produced corner totals of 11, 11, 8 and 15
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 10.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' on-target counts have usually stayed under nine in their recent matches.
- Walsall home shots on target: 7.0 combined per game
- Stevenage away shots on target: 6.3 combined per game
- Walsall's four most recent home totals were 6, 8, 11 and 3
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The teams' recent card totals sit around or just below the line, with Stevenage's away games particularly quiet.
- Walsall home: 2.4 yellow cards for, 2.4 against (4.8 per game)
- Stevenage away: 2.6 for, 1.2 against (3.8 per game)
- Walsall's last four home matches produced card totals of 6, 4, 7 and 2
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance56%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W1-2StevenagevWalsallDec 2, 2025EFL

L3-1StevenagevWalsallMar 11, 2023LEA

D1-1WalsallvStevenageAug 13, 2022LEA

L3-1StevenagevWalsallJan 8, 2022LEA

W1-0WalsallvStevenageAug 28, 2021LEA

2.8 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Walsall

W2-0Port ValeSep 19LEA

D0-0RochdaleSep 12LEA

D0-0Exeter CitySep 5LEA

D2-2CreweSep 1LEA

W3-2Accrington STAug 29LEA

D0-0GrimsbyAug 22LEA

W3-0GillinghamAug 15LEA

W1-0Bristol CityAug 6LEA

D0-0Notts CountyAug 1FRI

L0-1AFC Telford UnitedJul 25FRI

L0-5Aston VillaJul 21FRI

D0-0LeamingtonJul 11FRI

L1-3BromleyMay 2LEA

L0-2Harrogate TownApr 25LEA

W3-1BarrowApr 18LEA

Stevenage

L0-1Leyton OrientSep 19LEA

W2-1LutonSep 10LEA

W5-1BarnsleySep 5LEA

D0-0PeterboroughSep 1LEA

D2-2DoncasterAug 29LEA

L0-3ReadingAug 25LEA

L1-2Oxford UnitedAug 22LEA

D1-1Burton AlbionAug 15LEA

W2-1WycombeAug 7LEA

W1-0ColchesterAug 1FRI

W1-0MillwallJul 25FRI

L0-5West HamJul 22FRI

D0-0FC AndorraJul 18FRI

L0-2Stockport CountyMay 13LEA

L0-1Stockport CountyMay 9LEA

Squad & Injuries

Walsall

25 available

Attackers4

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Stevenage

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders12

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

No

Draw

Under 2.5

Walsall or Stevenage

Walsall

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 8 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Walsall

Stevenage

Squad & Injuries

Walsall

Stevenage