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Predictions graded

Bradford City2Newcastle U211

HT 0–1Tue 22 Sept 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–940%

Edges1–614%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 12–7On targetOn target 3–2CornersCorners 3–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Sep 2026, 15:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Bradford City's low-scoring winning habit against a Newcastle U21 side beaten in five of their last six is the tension here.

On the record, Bradford should win without much drama, and their 1.17 win price asks for far more than that. The half-time markets do offer something — Newcastle level or ahead at the break at 2.4, level at the break at 3.25, no first-half goals at 4.2 — as do Under 2.5 goals at 3.2 and both teams to score: No at 1.8.

Context

It is the clearest sign that the under-21 side can take an EFL Trophy tie even when the opposition has more of the ball and more attempts, and it came three days before their 0-2 league defeat at Leeds United U21. Bradford's own recent wins have not needed big shot counts either, so a contained, low-scoring game is a plausible shape here, though a single match is a thin basis for any pattern.
- 15 September 2026, EFL Trophy away at York: Newcastle United U21 won 3-1
- Shots: Newcastle U21 8, York 17; shots on target 3-6; corners 1-7
- One row within the six most recent Newcastle U21 matches tracked
That away sample reads two wins, one draw and six defeats, with a shut-out in none of the nine. Bradford's recent victories have been narrow — three of their last four finished 1-0 — so this record speaks more to the home side getting on the scoreboard than to a heavy margin, and it cannot say how many Newcastle concede on the night.
- Newcastle U21 away sample, 13 February – 19 September 2026: 9 matches, 2 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats
- Clean sheets in that away sample: 0
Only two of those nine matches had both teams scoring and six ended in clean sheets, which sets the tone for a tight, low-scoring tie. Newcastle U21 have lost five of their last six, so the balance of the record sits with Bradford, though their two defeats in the same window — including a 1-2 home loss to Cambridge United on 1 September — show the record is not unblemished.
- 8 August – 19 September 2026: 9 competitive matches, 7 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats
- 6 clean sheets and 2 matches with both teams scoring in that sample
- Latest tracked match: 19 September 2026
Newcastle's under-21s were the visitors that night and matched Bradford over 90 minutes, which is the only head-to-head evidence available for this fixture. It is a single match from two years ago and says nothing about the current squads, but it is a reminder that this competition has previously produced a close game between these two clubs rather than a one-sided one.
- 3 September 2024, EFL Trophy: Bradford 2-2 Newcastle United U21 (the only recorded meeting)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bradford are a settled League One side winning regularly and conceding very little, while Newcastle's under-21 team have lost heavily to other development sides.
- Bradford: 7 wins, 2 defeats in 9 competitive matches this season
- Bradford at home: 3 wins, 1 defeat in 4, only 1 goal conceded
- Bradford scored 8 and conceded 3 across 9 competitive games, with 6 clean sheets
- Newcastle U21: 4 wins, 3 draws, 8 defeats in 15 competitive matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBradford CityEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 3.25
The read
First halves in Bradford's matches are typically tight, with few early goals from either side.
- Bradford average 0.44 first-half goals for and 0.22 against
- Bradford were level at half-time in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Newcastle U21 first halves average 0.8 goals in total
- Neither side averages more than half a first-half goal per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bradford do their scoring later in matches and Newcastle U21 concede regularly after half-time.
- Bradford average 0.89 second-half goals for and 0.33 against
- Bradford score roughly twice as many goals after the break as before it
- Newcastle U21 average 1.0 second-half goals against
- Bradford won the second half 2-0 at Leyton Orient in their last away cup tie
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonBradford CityEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bradford are a settled League One side winning regularly and conceding very little, while Newcastle's under-21 team have lost heavily to other development sides. Newcastle's habit of drawing a fifth of their matches and Bradford's narrow 1-0 wins keep a level 90 minutes plausible.
- Bradford: 7 wins, 2 defeats in 9 competitive matches this season
- Bradford at home: 3 wins, 1 defeat in 4, only 1 goal conceded
- Bradford have drawn none of their 9 competitive matches
- Newcastle U21 have drawn 3 of 15 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBradford City or DrawEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bradford do most of their scoring after the break, but Newcastle's habit of conceding early gives the home side a fair chance of a half-time lead. First halves in Bradford's matches are typically tight, with few early goals from either side.
- Bradford average 0.44 first-half goals for and 0.22 against
- Bradford led at half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches
- Bradford were level at half-time in 4 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostBradford City or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.20
The read
Bradford's matches are low-scoring and defensively controlled, which caps the total even if Newcastle concede chances.
- Bradford have scored 8 and conceded 3 in 9 competitive matches
- 6 of those 9 matches ended with a Bradford clean sheet
- Bradford home games average 1.5 goals for and 0.5 against
- Newcastle U21 average over 1.5 goals conceded per competitive match
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
One side of this fixture is very likely to be kept out given Bradford's clean-sheet rate and Newcastle's blank days.
- Bradford have conceded 3 goals in 9 competitive matches
- Only 2 of Bradford's 9 matches had both teams scoring
- Bradford kept 3 clean sheets in 4 home matches
- Newcastle U21 failed to score in 2 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bradford's home defensive record is strong, and Newcastle's young side has been shut out in two of their last six.
- Bradford kept 3 clean sheets in 4 home matches
- Bradford concede 0.5 goals per home match
- Bradford have conceded 3 goals in 9 competitive matches overall
- Newcastle U21 failed to score in 2 of their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNewcastle U21 not to scoreEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bradford's wins have mostly been single-goal affairs, so keeping them to one or none is the more likely outcome.
- Bradford scored exactly one goal in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Bradford were held scoreless at Plymouth
- Bradford average 1.5 goals per home match
- Bradford have scored 8 goals in 9 competitive matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostBradford City under 1.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Newcastle's matches usually produce an early goal, and Bradford have scored in the first half in half of their recent games.
- Bradford matches average 0.67 first-half goals in total
- Newcastle U21 matches average 1.87 first-half goals in the tracked window
- 5 of Newcastle U21's last 6 matches had at least one first-half goal
- Bradford were involved in a goalless first half in 3 of their last 6
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams scoring before the break would need an unusually open start from a Bradford side that defends the first half well.
- Bradford kept first-half clean sheets in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Bradford concede 0.22 first-half goals per match
- Bradford scored in the first half in only 3 of their last 6
- Newcastle U21 were held scoreless in the first half in 2 of their last 6
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bradford control games without adding many goals after the break, keeping second-half totals modest.
- Bradford's second halves average 1.22 goals in total
- 3 of Bradford's last 6 matches had fewer than two second-half goals
- Bradford concede 0.33 second-half goals per match
- Newcastle U21's most recent match had one second-half goal
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bradford generate a steady stream of corners and their opponents usually add a few, so nine is a modest target.
- Bradford average 7.44 corners and concede 6.0 per competitive match
- Bradford home matches average 8.25 corners for and 2.75 against
- Newcastle U21's one tracked match had 1 corner for and 7 against
- Bradford's recent matches included 12 and 14-corner games
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bradford's home matches are busy at both ends, which puts the 20.5 total shot line within reach.
- Bradford average 12.56 shots and concede 10.67 per competitive match
- Bradford home matches average 17.25 shots for and 7.25 against
- Bradford's last six matches averaged about 21.7 total shots
- Newcastle U21's one tracked match had 8 shots for and 17 against
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bradford's matches reliably produce at least two cards, and a cup tie with a young away side adds to the count.
- Bradford average 1.89 yellow cards and their opponents 1.89 per match
- Newcastle U21's one tracked match had no cards recorded
- Every one of Bradford's last six matches had at least one card
- Five of Bradford's last six matches had three or more cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 1.5Estimated chance86%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 0W

D2-2BradfordvNewcastle United U21Sep 3, 2024EFL

4 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Bradford City

W1-0LutonSep 19LEA

W1-0Notts CountySep 12LEA

W3-1Leyton OrientSep 8LEA

W1-0Mansfield TownSep 5LEA

L1-2Cambridge UnitedSep 1LEA

L0-2PlymouthAug 29LEA

W1-0Sheffield WednesdayAug 20LEA

W2-0PeterboroughAug 15LEA

W2-0RochdaleAug 8LEA

D2-2Salford CityAug 1FRI

W3-2PrestonJul 29FRI

W4-0GmundenJul 24FRI

L0-1Accrington STJul 17FRI

W6-1FC Halifax TownJul 11FRI

W2-1United of ManchesterJul 4FRI

Newcastle U21

L0-2Leeds United U21Sep 19PRE

W3-1YorkSep 15EFL

L1-2Boreham WoodSep 8NAT

L0-4Fulham U21Aug 31PRE

L1-3Tottenham Hotspur U21Aug 24PRE

L3-5TamworthAug 18NAT

L0-2Swansea City U21Apr 27PRO

D1-1Wolves U21Apr 13PRE

W3-1Manchester United U21Apr 10PRE

L0-3Nottingham Forest U21Mar 20PRE

W2-0Blackburn Rovers U21Mar 13PRE

D2-2Leicester City U21Mar 9PRE

D2-2Brighton U21Feb 27PRE

W3-0Fulham U21Feb 20PRE

L0-1Arsenal U21Feb 13PRE

Squad & Injuries

Bradford City

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Newcastle U21

32 available

Attackers9

Midfielders13

Defenders5

Goalkeeper5

Bradford City2Newcastle U211

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Newcastle U21

Under 2.5

Draw

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw or Newcastle U21

No

Draw

BetBugs probabilities

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals2 of 7 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Bradford City

Newcastle U21

Squad & Injuries

Bradford City

Newcastle U21