Benjamin Aceval2Tembetary1

HT 0–0Mon 21 Sept 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions12–286%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Sep 2026, 09:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Benjamín Aceval need a win to keep their promotion push alive, but Tembetary arrive scoring 1.75 goals a game on the road and won May's meeting 4-3.

Aceval's home edge and higher league position make them the likelier winners, though at 2.05 that price asks more than their form justifies. Both teams to score at 1.88 and over 2.5 goals at 2.05 are the two prices that hold up.

Context

ABC Deportes' 20 September table placed Aceval nine points behind the 48-point promotion line before this fixture. With round 25 representing the start of the final six matches for Aceval, the result has a direct bearing on whether that deficit can be reduced. A win would narrow it to six, while dropped points would leave less time to recover ground. The table is a pre-match snapshot and does not settle the promotion race by itself.
- ABC Deportes listed Benjamín Aceval on 39 points and Santaní and 12 de Junio on 48 on 20 September.
- ABC Color reported that the 30-round Intermedia awards two promotion places.
- The APF lists Benjamín Aceval versus Tembetary as a round-25 fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 09:27 · Europe/BucharestABC Color — Intermedia's final stretchwww.abc.com.py · 14 Sep 2026APF — Round 25 match officialswww.apf.org.py · 18 Sep 2026
Aceval's matches almost always have goals at both ends — both teams scored in 11 of the 15 — so Tembetary should expect chances even as the away side. The same record shows Aceval finding the net in 12 of 15, so the pattern runs both ways rather than pointing to one team's dominance. One clean sheet across three months of competitive play is a strong signal about how these games tend to unfold.
- 15 competitive matches tracked for Benjamín Aceval, 6 June to 14 September 2026.
- One clean sheet in those 15 matches; Aceval scored in 12 of them and conceded in 14.
- Both teams scored in 11 of the 15 matches.
Tembetary travel with a scoring threat rather than a containment plan: they have scored in six of their eight tracked away matches and average 1.75 goals on the road. That gives them a route into this game even against a home side with promotion on the line. They also concede 1.88 per away match in the same sample, so the traffic is expected at both ends.
- Tembetary's away sample: 8 matches from 4 June to 10 September 2026, with 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats.
- 1.75 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per away match in that sample.
- Both teams scored in 6 of the 8, with one clean sheet.
ABC Color's report provides a concrete reference point: the first league meeting produced seven goals and a 4-3 Tembetary victory. That gives this return fixture a notable recent head-to-head story beyond the ordinary schedule. It does not establish a current tactical pattern, however, because the match was in May and both teams' available lineups may have changed.
- ABC Color recorded Tembetary's 4-3 win over Benjamín Aceval on 30 May in round 10.
- Tembetary led 3-0 before Aceval recovered to 3-3, with Matías Silvero scoring the 69th-minute winner.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Sep 2026, 09:27 · Europe/BucharestABC Color — Tembetary's seven-goal winwww.abc.com.py · 31 May 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.40fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 71.4%

−9.4ppshort

Roughly one first-half goal is expected between the sides, which makes at least one goal before the break the more likely outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Aceval sit higher in the table, hold a modest home scoring edge and face a Tembetary defence that concedes close to two goals per away match.
- Aceval home split: 3W 3D 3L in 9 tracked home matches, 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per home game
- League table: Aceval 4th on 39 points, Tembetary 10th on 30
- Tembetary concede 1.8 per game overall and 1.88 per away match in the tracked window
- Aceval have scored in 12 of 15 matches; Tembetary have one clean sheet in 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBenjamin AcevalEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.00
The read
With both teams averaging around half a goal in the first half, the interval is more likely to be level than led by either side.
- Aceval first-half goals for 0.56 and against 0.67 per match
- Tembetary first-half goals for 0.5 and against 0.5 per match
- Both sides' first-half totals average barely over one goal combined
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
More goals arrive after the interval and Aceval's second-half numbers are slightly better than Tembetary's, giving them the best single chance of winning the half.
- Aceval second-half goals for 0.89 and against 0.89 per match
- Tembetary second-half goals for 0.875 and against 1.25 per match
- Tembetary concede more after the break than they score
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonBenjamin AcevalEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aceval sit higher in the table, hold a modest home scoring edge and face a Tembetary defence that concedes close to two goals per away match. Tembetary score freely away from home and already beat Aceval this season, so they retain a realistic away win chance despite the lower league position.
- Aceval home split: 3W 3D 3L in 9 tracked home matches, 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per home game
- League table: Aceval 4th on 39 points, Tembetary 10th on 30
- Tembetary away split: 3W 3D 2L in 8 tracked away matches, 1.75 goals scored and 1.88 conceded
- Tembetary scored in 4 of their last 6 matches, including 4-3 and 2-1 wins
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBenjamin Aceval or TembetaryEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First halves in these matches are low-scoring, and Aceval's small first-half edge at home gives them the best single chance of leading at the break. With both teams averaging around half a goal in the first half, the interval is more likely to be level than led by either side.
- Aceval first-half goals for 0.56 and against 0.67 per match
- Tembetary first-half goals for 0.5 and against 0.5 per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonBenjamin Aceval or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals7 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Both defences concede regularly and neither side keeps clean sheets, so a match with at least three goals is more likely than not.
- Aceval matches average 2.87 total goals (1.33 for, 1.53 against); Tembetary average 3.2 (1.4 for, 1.8 against)
- Tembetary's away matches average 3.63 goals combined
- Both teams have one clean sheet in 15 matches
- The May meeting finished 4-3
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Neither team keeps clean sheets often and both score at a steady rate, making both teams finding the net the stronger outcome.
- Both teams scored in 11 of 15 matches for each side
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 matches for each side
- Aceval have one clean sheet in 15; Tembetary have one in 15
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Aceval's home output has generally been one goal or fewer, making a single-goal or blank home return the more likely outcome.
- Aceval home goals for average is 1.44 across 9 home matches
- Aceval scored 0 or 1 in the majority of their recent matches
- Tembetary kept one clean sheet and concede 1.88 per away match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostBenjamin Aceval under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Tembetary's recent matches produced one goal or fewer, so holding them below two is the more likely single outcome.
- Tembetary scored 1, 1, 0, 4, 2 and 0 in their last six matches
- Tembetary away goals for average is 1.75, but totals are concentrated in two matches
- Aceval concede 1.56 per home match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonTembetary under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aceval's defensive record makes a clean sheet against them unlikely in almost every match they play.
- Aceval have 1 clean sheet in 15 matches
- Tembetary scored in 11 of 15 matches
- Both teams scored in 11 of Aceval's 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTembetary to scoreEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tembetary's weak defensive record and Aceval's regular scoring make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Tembetary have 1 clean sheet in 15 matches
- Aceval scored in 12 of 15 matches
- Tembetary concede 1.8 goals per match overall
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBenjamin Aceval to scoreEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Roughly one first-half goal is expected between the sides, which makes at least one goal before the break the more likely outcome.
- Aceval first-half goals for 0.56 plus Tembetary's 0.5 gives about one expected first-half goal
- Aceval conceded 0.67 first-half goals per home match
- Tembetary's recent matches include first-half goals in several fixtures
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams averaging about half a goal before the break, one or both sides going in without a first-half goal is much more likely.
- Combined first-half scoring expectation of roughly one goal
- Aceval average 0.56 first-half goals for; Tembetary 0.5
- Each side's first-half defensive averages are also below 0.7
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves between these teams average close to two goals, making two or more after the break a near coin-flip.
- Aceval second-half goals for 0.89 and against 0.89; Tembetary 0.875 for and 1.25 against
- Expected second-half total of roughly 1.9 goals
- Tembetary's last away matches produced three second-half goals in two of them
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance51%

Prediction history

Benjamin Aceval: 1/4 recent goals projections matched

1 of 4 comparable goals projections involving Benjamin Aceval matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Benjamin Aceval4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 Jul·Division Intermedia