Tembetary1Sportivo Carapegua2

HT 1–0Tue 15 Sept 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges3–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 15:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect an open game with both teams likely to score and a good chance of Over 2.5 goals, but current odds offer no value on those markets.

The best statistical lean is Tembetary or Draw (62% estimated), but no double chance odds are available to confirm an edge.

Context

Tembetary are ninth in the table with 30 points from 23 matches.
At home, Tembetary have scored 15 goals and conceded 17 in 11 matches. They have lost three of their last five home league games, including a 2-0 defeat to Encarnación on 5 September. This suggests they are not reliable at home, which could give Sportivo Carapegua a chance.
- Tembetary's home record: 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses, 15 goals for, 17 against.
- Tembetary lost 0-2 at home to Encarnación on 5 September 2026.
- Tembetary lost 1-3 at home to General Caballero on 10 August 2026.
Sportivo Carapegua are eighth in the table with 31 points from 23 matches.
Away from home, Sportivo Carapegua have scored 12 goals and conceded 21 in 11 matches. They have lost five of those 11 away games, including a 0-2 defeat at Deportivo Santani on 16 August. Their away form is weak, which could help Tembetary.
- Sportivo Carapegua's away record: 3 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses, 12 goals for, 21 against.
- Sportivo Carapegua lost 0-2 away to Deportivo Santani on 16 August 2026.
- Sportivo Carapegua lost 2-5 away to Deportivo Capiata on 27 June 2026.
The teams have met four times since July 2024, with each side winning twice.
Sportivo Carapegua won the most recent match 1-0 at home on 25 May 2026. Tembetary won the two league meetings before that, including a 2-1 home win in July 2024. The head-to-head record is balanced, so this match is unlikely to be decided by past results.
- Sportivo Carapegua beat Tembetary 1-0 at home on 25 May 2026.
- Tembetary beat Sportivo Carapegua 2-1 at home on 5 July 2024.
- Tembetary beat Sportivo Carapegua 3-1 away on 13 October 2024.
Tembetary average 1.9 goals conceded per match, while Sportivo Carapegua average 1.5.
Tembetary have conceded 35 goals in 23 matches, and Sportivo Carapegua have conceded 37. Both teams have negative goal differences. This suggests the match could feature goals, as neither defence has been strong.
- Tembetary average 1.9 goals conceded per match.
- Sportivo Carapegua average 1.5 goals conceded per match.
- Tembetary have conceded 35 goals in 23 matches; Sportivo Carapegua have conceded 37.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.67fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams show high total goal averages in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H meetings have often been open, supporting Over 2.5.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a strong tendency to score in their respective home/away contexts, and recent H2H encounters frequently saw both sides on the scoresheet.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, and recent H2H matches often had early scoring.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tembetary's home form is modest but slightly better than Sportivo Carapegua's away form, and they have a positive recent H2H record at home.
- Tembetary home record: 4W 3D 4L, 15 goals scored, 17 conceded.
- Sportivo Carapegua away record: 3W 3D 5L, 12 goals scored, 21 conceded.
- Tembetary won 2 of the last 4 H2H meetings at home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTembetaryEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tembetary's home resilience and Sportivo Carapegua's away struggles make the double chance a solid option.
- Tembetary avoided defeat in 7 of 11 home matches (4W 3D).
- Sportivo Carapegua lost 5 of 11 away matches.
- Tembetary have not lost at home to Sportivo Carapegua in the last 3 meetings (2W 1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostTembetary or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively low first-half lead percentages, and H2H history shows a tendency for level scores at the break.
- Tembetary led at halftime in 33% of matches, trailed in 20%.
- Sportivo Carapegua led at halftime in 20% of matches, trailed in 47%.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 2 matches were level at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
This specific HT/FT combination is plausible given Tembetary's ability to edge games at home, but it remains a low-probability outcome.
- Tembetary have won 4 home matches this season, often after a tight first half.
- Sportivo Carapegua have lost 5 away matches, sometimes after being level at halftime.
- One of the last 5 H2H meetings ended with a home win after a draw at halftime.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/TembetaryEstimated chance18%

Goals6 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show high total goal averages in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H meetings have often been open, supporting Over 2.5.
- Tembetary home matches average 2.9 total goals (15 scored, 17 conceded in 11 games).
- Sportivo Carapegua away matches average 3.0 total goals (12 scored, 21 conceded in 11 games).
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 2, 1, 4, 3, 2 goals respectively, averaging 2.4.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a strong tendency to score in their respective home/away contexts, and recent H2H encounters frequently saw both sides on the scoresheet.
- Tembetary scored in 9 of 11 home matches this season.
- Sportivo Carapegua scored in 8 of 11 away matches this season.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, and recent H2H matches often had early scoring.
- Tembetary first-half goals average 0.8 per match overall.
- Sportivo Carapegua first-half goals conceded average 1.0 per match overall.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, at least one first-half goal was scored in 4 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The teams' overall scoring rates suggest a reasonable chance of multiple second-half goals, though confidence is limited by lack of precise half-split data.
- Tembetary average 1.6 goals per match overall, with many goals coming after halftime.
- Sportivo Carapegua average 1.3 goals per match overall.
- Combined second-half scoring in recent H2H meetings has been frequent.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tembetary's home defense has been leaky, and Sportivo Carapegua regularly find the net away from home.
- Tembetary kept a clean sheet in only 2 of 11 home matches.
- Sportivo Carapegua failed to score in only 3 of 11 away matches.
- Sportivo Carapegua scored in 8 of their last 10 matches overall.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSportivo Carapegua to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sportivo Carapegua's away defense is vulnerable, and Tembetary are consistent scorers at home.
- Sportivo Carapegua kept a clean sheet in only 2 of 11 away matches.
- Tembetary failed to score in only 2 of 11 home matches.
- Tembetary scored in 9 of their last 10 matches overall.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTembetary to scoreEstimated chance60%