Tukums 20001Grobina1

HT 0–1Sun 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Edges4–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Sep 2026, 05:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Tukums host Grobiņa in a direct relegation-line clash, with the hosts' 27 home goals against Grobiņa's 8 away goals making Tukums-or-draw the safest position.

The best value is Under 1.5 away goals at 1.50 (roughly +8 points versus implied), while the match-winner and Over 2.5 markets offer no edge. Dodô's availability remains an unresolved selection watch, not a confirmed absence.

Context

Tukums sit 9th in the Virsliga on 23 points from 30 games, two points behind Grobina and eight points above the relegation line. Their home record is 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats from 15 matches.
Tukums have scored 27 and conceded 23 at home, compared with 16 scored and 37 conceded on their travels, so the venue changes both their scoring and their defensive numbers. Grobina have won only 2 of 15 away games and scored 8 goals on the road, which is the weakest away attack in this matchup. The home side's advantage is real but limited: they have still lost 6 home league games this season, so playing at home has not made them consistently hard to beat.
- Tukums home record: 5 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats in 15 Virsliga games, with 27 goals scored and 23 conceded.
- Tukums away record: 0 wins, 4 draws, 11 defeats in 15 games, with 16 scored and 37 conceded.
- Tukums have 23 points from 30 matches and sit 9th, two points behind Grobina.
Grobiņa are two points above ninth-place Tukums after 30 matches, and the 20 September fixture was identified as an important contest for eighth place.
A home win would move Tukums ahead of their direct rival, so the result changes which side sits above the relegation-playoff line. That gives both teams a concrete reason to manage the closing stages around the score rather than treat the match as a neutral fixture. The table position is confirmed, but it does not by itself establish how either side will approach the game.
- Following Grobiņa’s 0-0 draw with Jelgava on 12 September, the table showed Grobiņa eighth on 25 points and Tukums ninth on 23, with both teams having played 30 matches.
- The report identified the 20 September fixture as an important contest for eighth place.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Sep 2026, 05:02 · Europe/BucharestSportacentrs.com match reportsportacentrs.com · 12 Sep 2026
Grobina are 8th in the Virsliga with 25 points from 30 games, 10 points above the relegation line. Their overall record is 5 wins, 10 draws and 15 defeats.
Grobina have scored 12 and conceded 19 at home but only 8 and 32 away, so their defensive record more than doubles on the road. They have lost 9 of 15 away matches and won just 2, which means they rarely take three points away from home. The counterweight is that 4 of those 15 away games were draws, and their most recent away result was a 1-0 defeat at Auda on 6 September, so they have been losing narrowly rather than being routinely overrun.
- Grobina away record: 2 wins, 4 draws, 9 defeats in 15 Virsliga games, with 8 goals scored and 32 conceded.
- Grobina home record: 3 wins, 6 draws, 6 defeats in 15 games, with 12 scored and 19 conceded.
- Grobina lost 1-0 away at Auda on 6 September 2026.
The last five Virsliga meetings between these clubs include three draws, one Grobina home win and one Tukums home win.
Grobina's 3-1 win on 5 July 2026 is the only decisive result in the recent series, and it came with Grobina leading 2-0 at half-time. The two meetings before that were draws, 3-3 on 15 May 2026 and 1-1 on 5 April 2026, so the fixture has often been close. That pattern limits how much can be read into the July scoreline, but it does show Grobina have already beaten this opponent this season.
- Grobina beat Tukums 3-1 at home on 5 July 2026 in the Virsliga.
- The previous two meetings in 2026 were draws: 3-3 on 15 May and 1-1 on 5 April.
- Tukums beat Grobina 2-1 at home on 21 July 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Tukums 2000 or Draw

1.25fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Grobina have won only 1 of their last 15 first halves and scored zero first-half goals in 11 of 15, but the 1.25 price already prices in nearly all of that edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tukums' strong home/away split (27 home goals vs Grobina's 8 away goals) and the confirmed two-point relegation-line stakes give the hosts the structural edge, though their poor recent form keeps confidence moderate.
- Tukums home record 2026: 5W-4D-6L, 27 goals scored and 23 conceded in 15 home matches.
- Grobina away record 2026: 2W-4D-9L, only 8 goals scored and 32 conceded in 15 away matches.
- Tukums last 5 Virsliga matches: 1W-0D-4L, but their only win in that run came at home (2-1 vs Ogre United).
- Grobina last 5 Virsliga matches: 1W-2D-2L, scoring just 2 goals across those five fixtures.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTukums 2000Estimated chance47%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Grobina's extremely weak away scoring output (8 goals in 15) combined with Tukums' solid home record and favourable recent H2H makes the home-or-draw double chance the safest position.
- Tukums home record: 5W-4D-6L, meaning 9 of 15 home matches avoided defeat (60%).
- Grobina away record: 2W-4D-9L, winning only 13% of away matches in 2026.
- Grobina have scored just 8 goals in 15 away matches (0.53 per game).
- H2H last 5: Tukums won 2, drew 2, lost 1, with Tukums unbeaten in the last 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTukums 2000 or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams frequently reach half-time level (Grobina 9 draws in 15, Tukums 7 draws in 15), and Grobina's very low first-half scoring rate makes a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Tukums half-time result in last 15: 7 draws, 4 losses, 4 wins.
- Grobina half-time result in last 15: 9 draws, 5 losses, 1 win.
- Grobina have been leading at half-time in only 13% of matches.
- Tukums have been trailing at half-time in 33% of matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tukums' tendency to score more in the second half and Grobina's heavy away concession rate suggest the hosts are more likely to win the second half, though the signal is weak.
- Tukums score 0.5 of their 1.0 average goals in the first half, implying stronger second-half output.
- Grobina score only 0.2 first-half goals on average, with most of their 0.7 total coming after the break.
- Tukums home record shows 27 goals in 15 home matches, suggesting late-game scoring ability at home.
- Grobina have conceded 32 goals in 15 away matches, often late in games.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostTukums 2000Estimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Grobina's extremely low first-half win rate (1 in 15) and poor first-half scoring make Tukums-or-draw at half-time a high-probability position.
- Grobina have won only 1 of their last 15 first halves (13% leading at half-time).
- Tukums have been leading or level at half-time in 67% of matches.
- Grobina have scored 0 first-half goals in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- Tukums have lost the first half in only 4 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonTukums 2000 or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tukums rarely lead at half-time (20%) and their recent form is poor, making a home/home HT-FT double a low-probability outcome despite the home advantage.
- Tukums have led at half-time in only 20% of matches.
- Tukums have won only 1 of their last 5 Virsliga matches.
- Grobina have drawn 9 of their last 15 first halves.
- Tukums home record: 5 wins in 15 home matches (33%).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostTukums 2000 / Tukums 2000Estimated chance22%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tukums' home advantage and Grobina's very poor away record support the home side covering -0.5, though Tukums' recent form keeps the probability below 50%.
- Tukums home record: 5W-4D-6L, with 9 of 15 home matches avoiding defeat.
- Grobina away record: 2W-4D-9L, winning only 13% of away matches.
- Grobina have scored just 8 goals in 15 away matches.
- H2H last 5: Tukums won 2, drew 2, lost 1.
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostTukums 2000 -0.5Estimated chance47%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tukums' leaky defence (60 conceded in 30) and the H2H pattern of high-scoring meetings support Over 2.5, though Grobina's low away scoring tempers the edge.
- Tukums home matches average 3.33 total goals (27 scored + 23 conceded in 15).
- Grobina away matches average 2.67 total goals (8 scored + 32 conceded in 15).
- H2H last 5 meetings produced 3, 6, 2, 1 and 3 goals — three of five went over 2.5.
- Tukums have conceded 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 Virsliga matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tukums' porous defence and the H2H history of both teams scoring in recent meetings support BTTS Yes, but Grobina's poor away scoring record caps confidence at medium.
- Tukums have conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches across all competitions.
- Grobina scored 3 goals in their most recent meeting with Tukums (5 July 2026).
- Tukums home matches: 27 scored and 23 conceded in 15, indicating both ends active.
- Grobina have scored in only 5 of their last 15 matches, limiting the upside.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have very low first-half scoring averages (Tukums 0.5, Grobina 0.2) and Grobina rarely score before the break, making Under 1.5 first-half goals the value call.
- Tukums average first-half goals scored: 0.5 per match; conceded: 0.7 per match.
- Grobina average first-half goals scored: 0.2 per match; conceded: 0.7 per match.
- Grobina have scored 0 first-half goals in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- Tukums have been leading at half-time in only 20% of matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Grobina's away defence concedes over two goals per game and they rarely keep clean sheets, while Tukums score regularly at home, making a Grobina clean sheet highly unlikely.
- Grobina have kept a clean sheet in only 3 of their last 15 matches.
- Grobina away record: 32 goals conceded in 15 away matches (2.13 per game).
- Tukums have scored in 11 of their last 15 matches.
- Tukums home record: 27 goals scored in 15 home matches (1.8 per game).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTukums 2000 to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tukums average 1.8 goals at home and face a Grobina defence conceding over two per away game, making Over 1.5 home goals a reasonable call.
- Tukums have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 15 matches.
- Tukums home record: 27 goals in 15 home matches (1.8 per game).
- Grobina have conceded 2+ goals in 8 of their last 15 matches.
- Grobina away record: 32 goals conceded in 15 away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostTukums 2000 over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Grobina's away scoring output is extremely low (8 goals in 15 away matches) and they rarely score more than once, making Under 1.5 away goals a high-confidence position.
- Grobina have scored 0 or 1 goal in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Grobina away record: only 8 goals in 15 away matches (0.53 per game).
- Grobina average 0.7 goals per match across last 15.
- Tukums have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonGrobina under 1.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Tukums rarely keep clean sheets (3 in 15) and Grobina scored three in the most recent H2H, so a home win to nil is a low-probability outcome.
- Tukums have kept clean sheets in only 3 of their last 15 matches.
- Tukums have conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Grobina have scored in 5 of their last 15 matches, including 3 against Tukums in July 2026.
- Tukums home record: 23 goals conceded in 15 home matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostYesEstimated chance28%