Liga NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

Lobos UPNFM1CD Choloma0

HT 1–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 21:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 06:11 · Europe/Bucharest

The model sees value in the draw (3.60, +6pts), Lobos or Draw double chance (1.80, +6pts), first-half draw (2.20, +10pts), under 2.5 goals (2.00, +8pts), and BTTS No (2.00, +5pts).

Avoid under 1.5 first-half goals and first-half BTTS No at 1.50 due to negative edges. Choloma’s reported points-forfeiture risk adds off-field uncertainty.

Context

Lobos UPNFM are 12th in the Apertura with 2 points from 6 matches.
They have lost four and drawn two, scoring 4 goals and conceding 12. At home they have drawn both matches 2-2 and 1-1, so they have been competitive but unable to win. This match is an opportunity to earn a first victory against a team only two points above them.
- Lobos UPNFM are 12th with 2 points from 6 matches (0W, 2D, 4L).
- They have scored 4 goals and conceded 12 overall.
- At home they have 2 draws from 2 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 3.
CD Choloma travel to Lobos UPNFM with an unresolved financial sanction hanging over their league position.
The FFH Appeals Commission has reportedly notified Choloma that points gained in official matches would be lost unless a pending award of 297,482.72 lempiras is paid. Reports indicate the sanction would apply from Sunday's match against Lobos if the debt remains unsettled. A positive result at Emilio Williams Agasse may therefore not improve Choloma's standing, altering what is at stake for the away side.
- Diario Diez reported that the FFH Appeals Commission notified Choloma that points gained in official matches would be lost unless its pending debt is paid.
- The reported TNAF ruling requires payment of 297,482.72 lempiras to Elí Nehemías Palma.
- El ONCE HN reported that the sanction would apply from Sunday's match against Lobos if Choloma had not settled the award.
ReportedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 06:10 · Europe/BucharestDiario Diezwww.diez.hn · 11 Sep 2026El ONCE HNeloncehn.com · 11 Sep 2026
CD Choloma are 10th with 4 points from 6 matches.
They have lost all three away games, scoring 2 and conceding 6. Their only win came at home against Platense FC. This away weakness is a clear pattern that Lobos UPNFM can try to exploit.
- CD Choloma have 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses in away matches.
- They have scored 2 goals and conceded 6 away from home.
- Their only win this season was at home against Platense FC on 2026-08-23.
Lobos UPNFM head coach Salomón Nazar remains in charge for the home fixture against CD Choloma.
Club president Darío Cruz has ruled out an immediate change, confirming that the side's preparation and match management stay with Nazar. This removes the disruption of a last-minute coaching switch and keeps Lobos under the same technical staff for selection and tactical planning.
- Lobos president Darío Cruz said the club's plan B would be implemented with Nazar still in charge and without moving him from his post.
- A matchday preview identifies Nazar as Lobos' coach for the CD Choloma fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 06:10 · Europe/BucharestDiario Diezwww.diez.hn · 8 Sep 2026Fútbol de Hondurashondurasfutbol.com · 13 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are struggling, but Lobos' home draws and Choloma's poor away form suggest a closely contested match with a draw being a likely outcome.
- Lobos UPNFM home record this season: 0W-2D-0L, 3 goals scored, 3 conceded in 2 home matches.
- CD Choloma away record this season: 0W-0D-3L, 2 goals scored, 6 conceded in 3 away matches.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 2 draws, 2 away wins, 1 home win; most recent meeting ended 2-1 to CD Choloma.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lobos' home resilience and Choloma's away struggles make a home win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Lobos UPNFM are unbeaten at home this season (2 draws).
- CD Choloma have lost all 3 away matches this season.
- Lobos UPNFM have scored in 2 of their last 3 home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLobos UPNFM or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be tight with neither team able to break the deadlock early.
- Lobos UPNFM have been level at half-time in 7 of their last 10 matches.
- CD Choloma have been level at half-time in 5 of their last 10 matches.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring rates.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half could see a stalemate if both teams cancel each other out.
- Lobos UPNFM have drawn the second half in 4 of their last 10 matches.
- CD Choloma have drawn the second half in 3 of their last 10 matches.
- Both teams have similar second-half goal differentials.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is a plausible outcome given the teams' struggles.
- Lobos UPNFM have drawn at half-time and full-time in 2 of their last 10 matches.
- CD Choloma have drawn at half-time and full-time in 1 of their last 10 matches.
- The match is expected to be low-scoring and tight.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the lack of dominance from either side, it is highly unlikely that either team will win both halves.
- Neither team has won both halves in any of their last 10 matches.
- Lobos UPNFM have not led at half-time in their last 5 matches.
- CD Choloma have not led at half-time in their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Choloma's slightly better first-half record gives them a marginal edge in the first-half double chance.
- CD Choloma have led at half-time in 2 of their last 10 matches.
- Lobos UPNFM have led at half-time in 1 of their last 10 matches.
- The first half is likely to be level or slightly in Choloma's favor.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or CD CholomaEstimated chance55%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have struggled to score consistently, and the match is likely to be tight with few clear chances.
- Lobos UPNFM average 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match this season.
- CD Choloma average 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match this season.
- Combined average goals per match for both teams: 2.6, but recent form suggests lower scoring.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the low scoring form of both teams, at least one side is likely to fail to score.
- Lobos UPNFM have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- CD Choloma have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- In H2H, both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with most goals coming after the break.
- Lobos UPNFM average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
- CD Choloma average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Combined first-half average: 1.6 goals, but recent matches show fewer early goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
As the game opens up, there is a slightly higher chance of goals in the second half.
- Lobos UPNFM concede an average of 0.8 goals in the second half.
- CD Choloma score an average of 0.6 goals in the second half.
- Recent matches show a trend of second-half goals for both teams.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
It is unlikely that both teams will score in the first half given their slow starts.
- Lobos UPNFM have scored in the first half in only 2 of their last 10 matches.
- CD Choloma have scored in the first half in 4 of their last 10 matches.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring rates.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

No odds are offered for this market in the attached data, so it cannot be assessed as a betting edge.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 1W

W1-2Lobos UpnfmvAtlético CholomaMar 21, 2026LIG

D1-1Atlético CholomavLobos UpnfmJan 29, 2026LIG

L5-1Atlético CholomavLobos UpnfmOct 15, 2025LIG

D2-2Lobos UpnfmvAtlético CholomaAug 4, 2025LIG

3.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Nacional 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Lobos UPNFM	6	0	2	4	4-12	2	LLLDD
10	CD Choloma	6	1	1	4	4-7	4	DLWLL

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Lobos UPNFM

L0-2Real EspanaSep 6LIG

L0-1JuticalpaAug 29LIG

L1-4CD MotaguaAug 22LIG

D2-2Estrella RojaAug 15LIG

D1-1OlanchoAug 8LIG

L0-2CD OlimpiaAug 3LIG

W2-1CD MotaguaMay 1LIG

L0-1JuticalpaApr 27LIG

L0-1GénesisApr 23LIG

L1-4Platense FCApr 19LIG

D1-1Real EspanaApr 13LIG

L2-3VictoriaApr 6LIG

D0-0CD OlimpiaApr 2LIG

W2-1OlanchoMar 24LIG

L1-2Atlético CholomaMar 21LIG

CD Choloma

D0-0OlanchoSep 5LIG

L1-2Real EspanaAug 30LIG

W2-0Platense FCAug 23LIG

L0-1CD MarathonAug 16LIG

L1-2Atletico IndependienteAug 10LIG

L0-2GénesisAug 1LIG

W1-0CD MarathonMay 1LIG

L1-5CD MotaguaApr 26LIG

L1-3CD OlimpiaApr 19LIG

W5-2VictoriaApr 14LIG

W3-2Real EspanaApr 9LIG

L1-3OlanchoApr 5LIG

W1-0Platense FCApr 2LIG

L1-2GénesisMar 25LIG

W2-1Lobos UpnfmMar 21LIG

Squad & Injuries

Lobos UPNFM

39 available

Attackers13

Midfielders10

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

CD Choloma

34 available

Attackers12

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Lobos UPNFM or Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

No

Under 1.5

No

Result4 of 7 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Markets to Avoid

Under 1.5

No

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Lobos UPNFM

CD Choloma

Squad & Injuries

Lobos UPNFM

CD Choloma