Riga1BFC Daugavpils1

HT 0–0Mon 7 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges5–645%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 08:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Riga are heavy favourites at home, but the outright win offers no value.

The best edges are on Riga over 1.5 team goals (2.5pt edge) and over 1.5 second-half goals (7.6pt edge); avoid over 2.5 total goals and over 0.5 first-half goals due to negative value.

Context

Riga sit second in the Virsliga with 65 points from 27 matches, four points behind leaders Rīgas FS.
Riga have been dominant at home, winning 12 of 14 matches and drawing the other two. They have scored 43 goals and conceded only 11 at home, averaging over three goals per game. BFC Daugavpils have won only two of 13 away matches this season, so Riga's home strength is a major factor. However, BFC Daugavpils did hold Riga to a 0-0 draw in their most recent meeting in June, showing they can be stubborn opponents.
- Riga home record: 12 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses in 14 matches.
- Riga have scored 43 goals and conceded 11 at home.
- BFC Daugavpils away record: 2 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses in 13 matches.
BFC Daugavpils are fifth in the Virsliga with 37 points from 28 matches, but their away form is much weaker than their home form.
BFC Daugavpils have struggled away from home, winning only two of 13 matches and losing six. They have conceded 21 goals away, an average of 1.6 per game, while scoring 16. This contrasts with their home record of eight wins in 15 matches. Facing a strong Riga side away from home will be a difficult test for them.
- BFC Daugavpils away record: 2 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses in 13 matches.
- BFC Daugavpils have scored 16 goals and conceded 21 away from home.
Daugavpils played 120 minutes in their Latvian Cup semi-final against Auda on 2 September, drawing 2-2 after leading 2-0 before losing the shootout 3-0.
The extra 30 minutes and shootout reduce recovery time for Daugavpils players used in that match. This can affect rotation and late-match defensive organisation and intensity against Riga.
- BFC Daugavpils drew 2-2 with Auda in the Latvian Cup semi-final on 2 September after leading 2-0.
- The match remained scoreless in extra time before Auda won the shootout 3-0.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 08:20 · Europe/BucharestLatvian Football Federation — Auda reach cup finallff.lv · 2 Sep 2026
Riga and BFC Daugavpils have met five times since July 2025, with Riga winning four and drawing one.
Riga have dominated recent meetings, winning four of the last five. They beat BFC Daugavpils 4-2 at home in March 2026 and 3-1 away in May 2026. However, the most recent match in June 2026 ended 0-0, showing BFC Daugavpils can frustrate Riga. This history suggests Riga are likely to win, but the draw is a possible outcome.
- 2026-06-25: BFC Daugavpils 0-0 Riga (Virsliga)
- 2026-05-08: BFC Daugavpils 1-3 Riga (Virsliga)
- 2026-03-14: Riga 4-2 BFC Daugavpils (Virsliga)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Riga's dominant home record and superior overall form give them a strong edge, while Daugavpils struggle away from home.
- Riga are unbeaten at home this season (12W 2D 0L) with 43 goals scored and 11 conceded in 14 home matches.
- Riga average 2.4 goals per match overall and have won 20 of 27 league games.
- BFC Daugavpils have only 2 wins in 13 away matches, with 16 goals scored and 21 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRigaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Riga's unbeaten home record makes a home win or draw highly likely.
- Riga have not lost at home this season (12W 2D).
- Daugavpils have lost 6 of 13 away matches.
- Riga have won 20 of 27 league matches overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRiga or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Riga's stronger first-half scoring record gives them an edge to lead at the break.
- Riga have led at half-time in 40% of their matches.
- Daugavpils have trailed at half-time in only 13% of their matches.
- Riga average 0.9 first-half goals compared to Daugavpils' 0.3.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostRigaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Riga's ability to start strong and maintain leads at home supports a half-time/full-time double.
- Riga have led at half-time in 40% of matches and won 74% of matches overall.
- Daugavpils have trailed at half-time in only 13% of matches.
- Riga are unbeaten at home this season.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostRiga/RigaEstimated chance50%

Goals4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches show a tendency for goals, especially with Riga's strong home attack.
- Riga average 2.4 goals scored per match overall and 3.07 goals per home match.
- Riga's home matches average 3.86 total goals (43 scored + 11 conceded in 14 games).
- Daugavpils away matches average 2.85 total goals (16 scored + 21 conceded in 13 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Daugavpils have shown they can score away from home, and Riga's defense has been occasionally breached.
- Daugavpils have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches overall.
- Riga have conceded in 8 of their last 15 matches overall.
- Daugavpils have scored in 9 of 13 away matches this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Riga's tendency to score in the first half makes a first-half goal likely.
- Riga average 0.9 first-half goals per match overall.
- Riga have led at half-time in 40% of their matches.
- Daugavpils average 0.3 first-half goals per match overall.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more in the second half, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Riga average 1.5 second-half goals per match (2.4 total - 0.9 first-half).
- Daugavpils average 0.9 second-half goals per match (1.2 total - 0.3 first-half).
- Combined second-half average is 2.4 goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Riga's solid home defense gives them a chance to keep a clean sheet, though Daugavpils can score.
- Riga have kept clean sheets in 6 of 14 home matches this season.
- Daugavpils have failed to score in 4 of 13 away matches.
- Riga concede an average of 0.79 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostBFC Daugavpils not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Riga's potent home attack makes it very unlikely Daugavpils will keep a clean sheet.
- Riga have scored in 13 of 14 home matches this season.
- Daugavpils have kept only 3 clean sheets in 13 away matches.
- Riga average 3.07 goals per home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonRiga to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Riga's high home scoring average makes over 1.5 home goals very likely.
- Riga average 3.07 goals per home match.
- Riga have scored at least 2 goals in 11 of 14 home matches.
- Daugavpils concede an average of 1.62 goals per away match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostRiga over 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Riga's strong home defense should limit Daugavpils' scoring opportunities.
- Daugavpils average 1.23 goals per away match.
- Riga concede an average of 0.79 goals per home match.
- Daugavpils have scored more than 1 goal in only 4 of 13 away matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBFC Daugavpils under 1.5Estimated chance65%