Progreso Montevideo11 – 0Deportivo Maldonado0

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Deportivo Maldonado's strong Intermedio form and Progreso's poor recent results, combined with the away side's motivation to secure the Serie B lead, make an away win highly likely.

• Deportivo Maldonado are top of the Intermedio Serie B with 11 points from 5 matches (3W 2D 0L), while Progreso are bottom with 3 points (1W 0D 4L).
• Progreso have lost 4 of their last 5 matches overall, conceding 2+ goals in 3 of those defeats.
• Deportivo Maldonado have won 3 of their last 5 away matches across all competitions, scoring 2+ goals in each win.
• The most recent H2H (Feb 2026) ended 2-0 to Deportivo Maldonado, with Progreso failing to score.

BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDeportivo MaldonadoEstimated chance65%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Deportivo Maldonado's strong first-half performances in the Intermedio and Progreso's habit of conceding early make an away halftime lead probable.

• Deportivo Maldonado have led at halftime in 3 of their 5 Intermedio matches (60%), while Progreso have trailed at halftime in 4 of 5 (80%).
• Progreso have conceded first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, with an average of 1.4 first-half goals conceded.
• Deportivo Maldonado average 0.9 first-half goals per game over their last 15 matches, compared to Progreso's 0.3.
• In the last H2H, Deportivo Maldonado led 1-0 at halftime.

BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDeportivo MaldonadoEstimated chance55%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Deportivo Maldonado's attacking output in the Intermedio and Progreso's defensive frailties point to a match with at least 3 goals.

• Deportivo Maldonado's last 5 Intermedio matches have averaged 3.4 total goals, with 4 of 5 seeing Over 2.5.
• Progreso's last 5 matches have seen 2.6 total goals on average, with 3 of 5 hitting Over 2.5.
• Deportivo Maldonado have scored 12 goals in 5 Intermedio games (2.4 per game), while Progreso have conceded 9 in 5 (1.8 per game).
• The last 3 H2H meetings have produced 2, 4, and 1 goals, averaging 2.33, but current form suggests higher scoring.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While Deportivo Maldonado are favorites, Progreso's desperation to avoid relegation should see them score, but their leaky defense makes a clean sheet unlikely for either side.

• Both teams have scored in 3 of Deportivo Maldonado's last 5 matches across all competitions.
• Progreso have scored in 3 of their last 5 matches, including against stronger opponents like Danubio and Liverpool Montevideo.
• Deportivo Maldonado have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 5 away matches.
• Progreso have conceded in 13 of their last 15 matches overall.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The combination of Deportivo Maldonado's early scoring and Progreso's early defensive lapses suggests a decent chance of multiple first-half goals, though the low confidence reflects Progreso's own limited first-half scoring.

• Deportivo Maldonado's Intermedio matches have seen 1.6 first-half goals on average, with 3 of 5 hitting Over 1.5.
• Progreso's last 5 matches have averaged 1.4 first-half goals, with 2 of 5 over 1.5.
• Deportivo Maldonado have scored in the first half in 4 of their last 5 matches.
• Progreso have conceded in the first half in 4 of their last 5 matches.