BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

RB Salzburg1TSV Hartberg3

HT 0–2Sun 17 May 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 22–9On targetOn target 7–6CornersCorners 13–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 May 2026, 21:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Salzburg’s 23-match unbeaten H2H run makes them clear favorites, but recent tight scorelines and Hartberg’s away resilience erode value in the outright win (1.22).

The best betting edge is over 9.5 corners at 1.91, with both teams’ corner stats supporting a high total. Both Teams to Score (Yes) at 1.88 also offers a slim positive margin.

Context

Salzburg are unbeaten in 23 H2H matches (19 wins, 4 draws).
- The last three Bundesliga meetings ended 2-1, 0-0, and 2-1.
- Earlier H2H blowouts (7-2, 7-1, 6-0) have not repeated recently.
- Hartberg held Salzburg to a 0-0 draw in the most recent away H2H.
Salzburg’s home record this season: 6W 4D 5L.
- They have lost at home to LASK Linz, Rapid Vienna, and SCR Altach.
- In their last 5 home matches, Salzburg won only once (3-1 vs Austria Vienna).
- Salzburg have conceded 20 goals in 15 home games, an average of 1.33 per match.
Hartberg’s away record: 5W 7D 3L.
- They have drawn 7 of 15 away matches, including at Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna.
- Hartberg kept a clean sheet in 4 away matches this season.
- They have conceded only 1.1 goals per away game on average.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

RB Salzburg

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Salzburg's historical H2H dominance and superior squad quality give them a clear edge, despite Hartberg's resilient away form.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Salzburg's historical H2H dominance and superior squad quality give them a clear edge, despite Hartberg's resilient away form.
- Salzburg are unbeaten in 23 H2H meetings (19W 4D 0L) against Hartberg.
- Salzburg have won 3 of the last 5 H2H league meetings, with the other 2 being draws.
- Salzburg's home record this season: 6W 4D 5L, but Hartberg's away record is 5W 7D 3L.
- Salzburg average 1.3 goals scored per match over last 15, Hartberg concede 1.1 per match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRB SalzburgEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The historical H2H and Hartberg's tendency to draw away make a Salzburg win or draw highly probable.
- Salzburg have not lost to Hartberg in 23 meetings (19W 4D).
- Hartberg have drawn 7 of 15 away matches this season.
- Salzburg's last 5 home matches: 2W 2D 1L.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostRB Salzburg or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Salzburg's slight first-half scoring edge and home advantage make them favorites to lead at the break, but Hartberg's resilience keeps it a close call.
- Salzburg led at halftime in 33% of their last 15 matches.
- Hartberg trailed at halftime in only 20% of their last 15 matches.
- Salzburg average 0.8 first-half goals, Hartberg concede 0.5 first-half goals.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Salzburg led at halftime twice, with 2 draws and 1 Hartberg lead.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostRB SalzburgEstimated chance50%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent goal averages and Salzburg's home scoring record support over 2.5 goals, though recent H2H tightness tempers confidence.
- Salzburg's last 15 matches average 2.4 total goals (1.3 scored, 1.1 conceded).
- Hartberg's last 15 matches average 2.3 total goals (1.2 scored, 1.1 conceded).
- 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings had over 2.5 goals.
- Salzburg's home matches average 3.2 total goals this season (28 scored, 20 conceded in 15 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Salzburg's defensive vulnerabilities and Hartberg's consistent scoring record suggest both teams are likely to find the net.
- Salzburg have conceded in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Hartberg have scored in 9 of their last 15 matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- Hartberg average 1.2 goals scored per match over last 15.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently see first-half goals, making over 0.5 in the first half a strong bet.
- Salzburg's last 15 matches: 0.8 first-half goals scored, 0.7 conceded.
- Hartberg's last 15 matches: 0.7 first-half goals scored, 0.5 conceded.
- In 12 of Salzburg's last 15 matches, there was at least one first-half goal.
- In 10 of Hartberg's last 15 matches, there was at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring tends to increase, especially with Salzburg pushing at home, though Hartberg's defensive record on the road adds caution.
- Salzburg's last 15 matches average 1.6 second-half goals (0.5 scored, 1.1 conceded).
- Hartberg's last 15 matches average 1.3 second-half goals (0.5 scored, 0.8 conceded).
- Salzburg's home matches this season average 1.9 second-half goals.
- Hartberg's away matches this season average 1.3 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Salzburg's high corner count at home and Hartberg's tendency to concede corners on the road push the total over 8.5.
- Salzburg average 5.4 corners per match over last 15, Hartberg average 3.1.
- Salzburg's home matches average 9.4 total corners (5.4 for, 4.0 against).
- Hartberg's away matches average 8.1 total corners (3.1 for, 5.0 against).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total corners averaged 9.2.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Salzburg's attacking volume at home and Hartberg's defensive stats suggest a combined shots on target total above 8.5.
- Salzburg average 4.8 shots on target per match over last 15, Hartberg average 2.5.
- Salzburg's home matches average 9.3 total shots on target (5.3 for, 4.0 against).
- Hartberg's away matches average 7.5 total shots on target (2.5 for, 5.0 against).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total shots on target averaged 8.4.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card counts are borderline, but the competitive nature of the fixture and historical averages slightly favor over 3.5 cards.
- Salzburg average 1.7 yellow cards per match over last 15, Hartberg average 1.5.
- Salzburg's home matches average 3.2 total cards, Hartberg's away matches average 3.5.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total cards averaged 3.8.
- Referee data unavailable; card averages are moderate.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

W1-2TSV HartbergvRed Bull SalzburgApr 5, 2026BL

D0-0Red Bull SalzburgvTSV HartbergMar 1, 2026BL

W1-2TSV HartbergvRed Bull SalzburgAug 16, 2025BL

L4-0Red Bull SalzburgvTSV HartbergDec 4, 2024BL

D1-1TSV HartbergvRed Bull SalzburgNov 30, 2024BL

TSV Hartberg: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	RB Salzburg UEFA Europa League Qualification	31	13	9	9	55-38	29	LDLWW
6	TSV Hartberg	31	9	12	10	37-39	22	LLLWD

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

RB Salzburg

L1-2Lask LinzMay 10BL

D1-1Sturm GrazMay 3BL

L0-1Rapid ViennaApr 26BL

W3-1Austria ViennaApr 22BL

W3-1Austria ViennaApr 19BL

L2-3Lask LinzApr 10BL

W2-1TSV HartbergApr 5BL

W1-0SpVgg Greuther FürthMar 26FRI

D1-1Sturm GrazMar 20BL

L0-1Rapid ViennaMar 15BL

L0-1Rapid ViennaMar 8BL

L0-1SCR AltachMar 4CUP

D0-0TSV HartbergMar 1BL

W5-1Lask LinzFeb 22BL

D1-1Grazer AKFeb 15BL

TSV Hartberg

L2-4Sturm GrazMay 10BL

L0-1Austria ViennaMay 3BL

L1-5Lask LinzApr 26BL

W2-0Rapid ViennaApr 22BL

D2-2Rapid ViennaApr 19BL

D0-0Sturm GrazApr 12BL

L1-2Red Bull SalzburgApr 5BL

L0-1Austria ViennaMar 22BL

D0-0Lask LinzMar 13BL

D1-1FC BW LinzMar 8BL

D0-0Red Bull SalzburgMar 1BL

W1-0Grazer AKFeb 21BL

D0-0SCR AltachFeb 14BL

D1-1Rapid ViennaFeb 7BL

W7-0SV LafnitzJan 31FRI

Squad & Injuries

RB Salzburg

29 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

TSV Hartberg

29 available

Attackers5

Midfielders8

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yes

Over 9.5

RB Salzburg

RB Salzburg or Draw

RB Salzburg

Over 0.5

Over 2.5

Over 8.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

RB Salzburg

TSV Hartberg

Squad & Injuries

RB Salzburg

TSV Hartberg