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Predictions graded

Mateo Del PinoArgentina0Juan Sebastian Gomez #608Colombia2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Sun 18 Oct 2026, 19:45 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions11–192%

Edges7–0100%

Player Profiles

Mateo Del Pino

Argentina

Argentine left-hander listed at 173 cm, ranked No. 1103 in the 12 October list. Arrived in Cali on six straight defeats, every one in straight sets, the latest a first-round loss on clay at the Quito M15.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 173 cm

Juan Sebastian Gomez

Colombia

Colombian ranked No. 608; all 15 of his tracked recent matches have come on clay. Won the doubles at the Quito M15 with Andrés Urrea on 12 October, the Bogotá pair's second title of the season, and lost a second straight final there on 17 October.

Current ranking: #608
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 22:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Del Pino has lost six straight matches in straight sets; Gómez arrives a day after a doubles final in Quito.

Gómez, ranked 608 to 1103, should win, but he is 7-8 on clay and his recent wins were close. At 1.33 he offers nothing. The one price worth taking is 1.8 on Del Pino with a 4.5-game start.

Context

Del Pino has not won a completed match since 11 August, and his six consecutive defeats have all come in straight sets, the most recent a 7-5 6-1 loss to a player ranked No. 680. That run sits behind the roughly 495-place ranking gap to Gómez, so the gap reflects current results rather than an outdated number. Winning six games in a match at this level leaves little margin in a two-set qualifying format, where one dropped service game settles a set. The fair counterpoint is the opposition: most of those defeats came against players between No. 340 and No. 720, comparable to Gómez rather than far above him.
- Six consecutive defeats between 19 August and 13 October, every one in straight sets
- First-round loss to Juan Sebastián Osorio 7-5 6-1 at the Quito M15 on 13 October
- Listed No. 1103 with 15 ranking points in the ranking released
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 22:11 · Europe/BucharestCali Challenger qualifying match listing and head-to-head recordwww.flashscore.in · 18 Oct 2026
Gómez contested singles and doubles at the same Quito venue across two weeks, with his singles ending 7-6(5) 7-5 on 16 October and the doubles final 6-3 7-5, leaving one travel day before this match in Cali. Altitude in Quito and the crossing into Colombia add a recovery cost that Del Pino, beaten in the first round there, did not carry. Match volume matters in a two-set qualifying format because a slow opening set is hard to recover. The load is not extreme in isolation, since doubles sets are shorter and he chose to keep playing both draws, but it is the clearest asymmetry between the two preparations.
- Round-of-16 singles win over Nicolás Hollender 6-2 7-6(4) on 15 October
- Singles defeat to Lucas Andrade Da Silva 7-6(5) 7-5 on 16 October
- Doubles final lost with Andrés Urrea 6-3 7-5 ; Cali qualifying follows
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 22:11 · Europe/BucharestCali Challenger qualifying match listing and recent resultswww.flashscore.in · 18 Oct 2026
The title is a verified season milestone: a second doubles trophy of the year for the Gómez-Urrea pairing, won in two tie-break sets, and it explains why Gómez was competing deep into the previous week instead of resting before Cali. It also places both partners at the top of an M15 doubles draw in the same South American clay swing that now moves to Colombia. The limitation is direct: doubles results at ITF level do not transfer into a singles verdict, and his singles ranking of No. 608 has not followed the doubles record upward. Nothing here establishes a playing advantage in this qualifying match.
- Doubles final won 7-6(2) 7-6(2) against Tristan McCormick and Dakotah Bobo
- Second doubles title of the season for the Gómez-Urrea pairing
- Both players compete under Bogotá's city sports programme
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 22:11 · Europe/Bucharest
Qualifying at the Cali Challenger 75 opened with twelve matches scheduled from 10:00 local, and the qualifying draw had been released only the previous evening. Both players therefore entered a round whose reward is a main-draw place rather than ranking points already secured, with at most a day to prepare for this specific opponent. That framing matters when reading the ranking gap: Challenger qualifying fields are dense with players between No. 600 and No. 1200, so a 495-place difference separates two players from the same competitive band. No court assignment or condition detail for this match has been published, so no surface-specific reading can be attached.
- Twelve qualifying matches scheduled from 10:00 a.m. on the opening day
- Qualifying draw published on the evening of
- A place in the main draw is the reward for the qualifying field
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 22:11 · Europe/BucharestCali Challenger qualifying match listingwww.flashscore.in · 18 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.40fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 71.4%

−3.4ppshort

Del Pino's clay matches have ended in straight sets every time in the tracked sample.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Juan Sebastian Gomez

1.44fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 69.4%

−3.4ppshort

Gomez's second-set numbers are his stronger side, while Del Pino's second sets have been his weakest.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Juan Sebastian Gomez

1.40fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71.4%

−6.4ppshort

Gomez takes more first sets and more games per opening set than Del Pino, who has started poorly throughout this window.

Total GameswonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 20.5

1.85fair 1.85

BetBugs 54% · Market 54.1%

−0.1ppshort

Del Pino's sets have been short and low-scoring, which keeps total games down in the two-set outcomes most likely here.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Juan Sebastian Gomez 2-0

1.80fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 55.6%

−3.6ppshort

Del Pino rarely takes a set in defeat, making a straight-sets Gomez win the single most likely scoreline.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Gomez has the better serve numbers, the higher ranking and wins matches this window, while Del Pino has lost six in a row without taking a set.
- Gomez: 7-8 in 15 clay matches this window, 49.5% total points won, 49.4% games won
- Del Pino: 4-9 on clay, six straight defeats, all in straight sets
- Gomez ranked 608, Del Pino ranked 1103
- Gomez beat Hollender 6-2 7-6 and Clark 7-5 6-3 in his last four clay events
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJuan Sebastian GomezEstimated chance76%

Games5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Del Pino stays within six games in most outcomes, including many of the straight-set losses he has had.
- Gomez's best margin in last five completed clay matches: +5 games
- Del Pino's own clay matches averaged 17.3 total games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMateo Del Pino +6.5Estimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Most of Gomez's recent wins were tight, and any Del Pino set or three-set match keeps the margin within four games.
- Gomez game margins in last five completed clay matches: +5, +5, +1, +1, -6
- Del Pino lost 9 of 12 clay matches but several of his wins have come 2-0
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMateo Del Pino +4.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A straight-sets Gomez win usually lands several games clear because Del Pino rarely reaches four games in a set.
- Gomez game margins in last five completed clay matches: +5, +5, +1, +1, -6
- Del Pino clay matches won 4, lost 9 with 2 sets played on average
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJuan Sebastian Gomez -2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Del Pino's sets have been short and low-scoring, which keeps total games down in the two-set outcomes most likely here.
- Del Pino's clay matches averaged 17.3 total games across 12 matches
- Del Pino has played no three-set match on clay in the tracked sample
- Del Pino averaged 3.75 games in set1 and 3.33 in set2
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gomez's first sets regularly pass ten games, including a high rate of tiebreaks.
- Del Pino's first sets averaged 9.0 total games
- Gomez's first sets averaged 10.5 total games with 6 tiebreaks in 15
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Del Pino's second sets are short and low-scoring, keeping this total under the line more often than not.
- Del Pino's second sets averaged 8.3 total games
- Del Pino won only 3.33 games per second set
- Gomez's second sets produced 4 tiebreaks in 15
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Del Pino's clay matches have ended in straight sets every time in the tracked sample.
- Del Pino's 12 clay matches averaged 2.0 sets
- Del Pino's scorelines on clay: 0-2 nine times, 2-0 three times
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Gomez's second-set numbers are his stronger side, while Del Pino's second sets have been his weakest.
- Del Pino won 3 of 12 clay second sets, averaging 3.33 games
- Gomez won 7 of 15 clay second sets, averaging 5.2 games
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonJuan Sebastian GomezEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Gomez takes more first sets and more games per opening set than Del Pino, who has started poorly throughout this window.
- Del Pino won 3 of 12 clay first sets, averaging 3.75 games
- Gomez won 6 of 15 clay first sets, averaging 4.87 games
- Gomez's first sets included six tiebreaks
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJuan Sebastian GomezEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Del Pino rarely takes a set in defeat, making a straight-sets Gomez win the single most likely scoreline.
- Del Pino lost 9 of 12 clay matches in straight sets
- Del Pino's only clay wins were 2-0, never 2-1
- Gomez won 4 of 15 clay matches 2-0
BetBugs · Set BettingwonJuan Sebastian Gomez 2-0Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Del Pino's sets usually separate well before 6-6, which keeps tiebreaks out of most outcomes.
- Del Pino had one tiebreak in 12 clay matches
- Del Pino averaged 3.75 and 3.33 games per set, well short of tiebreak territory
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%

Mateo Del Pino

5W 10L

7-5 6-1#680Juan Sebastian Osorio

6-2 6-1—Manuel Mouilleron Salvo

6-1 6-2#342Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

7-5 6-4—Valentino Grippo

7-6(5) 6-2—Felipe De Dios

6-2 6-3#719Santiago De La Fuente

6-1 3-0 ret.—Federico Aguilar Cardozo

6-2 7-5—Federico Aguilar Cardozo

6-1 6-1—Joao Vitor Scramin Do Lago

6-4 6-3—Leonel Cesar Castro

6-4 1-6 10-5—Nathan Cox

6-0 6-3—Gustavo Albieri

6-1 6-1—Marcco Iannoni

7-5 6-3—Felipe Pagnacco

6-4 6-2#352Carlos Maria Zarate

Juan Sebastian Gomez

7W 8L

7-6(5) 7-5#771Lucas Andrade Da Silva

6-2 7-6(4)—Nicolas Hollender

7-5 6-3—Miles Clark

7-6(4) 4-6 6-4—Felipe De Dios

7-5 2-6 6-3—Ivan Dreycopp

6-2 7-5#346Eduardo Ribeiro

6-2 7-6(3)#569Ignacio Monzon

6-1 6-1#188Guido Ivan Justo

2-6 6-1 7-5#352Carlos Maria Zarate

6-2 6-4#329Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#879Samuel Alejandro Linde Palacios

6-7(5) 6-4 6-1#1367Andres Urrea

6-3 6-0—Lucca Pinto

7-6(2) 6-4#887Pavlos Tsitsipas

6-7(6) 7-6(6) 6-3#723Herman Hoeyeraal

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MPMateo Del PinoPino

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Juan Sebastian GomezGomezJG

Juan Sebastian Gomez carries the stronger recent form — Mateo Del Pino's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In13/15 · 15/1564.4%+3.0pp67.4%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/1553.4%+14.2pp67.6%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/1538.9%+7.3pp46.2%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/150.6+2.02.6

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/154.31.2 fewer5.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/1544.2%+6.5pp37.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/1548.8%+8.1pp40.7%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/1545.7%+10.5pp56.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/1546.3%+3.2pp49.5%

Serve · 1–4

64.4%1st Serve In13/15 · 15/15+3.0pp67.4%

53.4%1st Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+14.2pp67.6%

38.9%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 15/15+7.3pp46.2%

0.6Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+2.02.6

4.3Double Faults / Match13/15 · 15/151.2 fewer5.5

Return · 1–0

44.2%Return Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+6.5pp37.7%

Pressure · 1–1

48.8%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 15/15+8.1pp40.7%

45.7%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 15/15+10.5pp56.2%

Points · 0–1

46.3%Total Pts Won13/15 · 15/15+3.2pp49.5%

Mateo Del Pino

Juan Sebastian Gomez

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Juan Sebastian Gomez

Mateo Del Pino +4.5

Under 2.5

Juan Sebastian Gomez

Juan Sebastian Gomez

Under 20.5

Juan Sebastian Gomez 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games5 of 6 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Mateo Del Pino

Juan Sebastian Gomez

Stat Battle