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Miguel Tobon #444ColombiaLeonardo Storck FrancaBrazil

Mon 2 Nov 2026, 18:002 Nov, 18:00Q3Clay

10Probabilities0Priced3Edges67%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Player Profiles

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

Structured player data lists Tobon at No. 499, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 183 cm.

Current ranking: #444
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Leonardo Storck Franca

Brazil

Preferred surface listed as clay.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 2 Nov 2026, 06:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Tobon's clay serve numbers and total-points edge make him the likelier winner, but Storck Franca's quick starts give him a real foothold.

The 1.18 on Tobon asks far more than this match justifies, and 1.29 on him in either of the first two sets is no better. The worthwhile quotes are Storck Franca at 4.25 for the match and 3.3 in each of the first two sets.

Context

Both players completed matches on 1 November and no availability concerns are reported. It is a qualifying round at a Challenger with no title, ranking or advancement stakes attached beyond the round itself.

Storck Franca's first-set record is the strongest part of his clay profile, seven wins from 13 matches.
Storck Franca has started clay matches well enough to keep the opening set close, with a positive first-set record and nearly five games per set won. Tobon's first sets have gone slightly against him at 5-6, so the early part of the match is where the gap between them narrows most. That keeps Storck Franca competitive early even though the longer rally numbers favour Tobon.
- 13 clay matches tracked from 9 September 2025 to 1 November 2026: Storck Franca won 7 first sets and lost 6.
- In those first sets he averaged 4.69 games won and 4.77 games lost.
Tobon is ranked 444, so beating a player near the top 100 stands out in his recent record.
Mejia was ranked far above anyone else Tobon has faced in this clay stretch, and Tobon came through a third-set tiebreak after dropping the first set. That result is the clearest sign his 7-4 clay record is not built only on lower-ranked opponents. It does not change the matchup with Storck Franca, but it shows Tobon can survive a long, tight match.
- 22 October 2026: Tobon beat Nicolas Mejia, ranked 115, 4-6 6-2 7-6 on clay.
Tobon's clay matches have frequently stretched into a third set, which shapes how the match may unfold.
Six of Tobon's 11 clay matches went the distance, and only three of the 11 contained a tiebreak. That pattern argues against a tidy straight-sets finish and is the main counterweight to his serve edge. It supports a longer match rather than a quick one, though the sample is small and split between wins and losses.
- 11 clay matches from 29 September to 1 November 2026: scorelines of 2-0 three times, 2-1 four times, 0-2 twice and 1-2 twice.
- Average sets per match 2.55; three of the 11 matches contained a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 63%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tobon has won more of his clay matches and holds a clear advantage on serve and in total points, which should decide most rallies in this matchup.
- Clay last-15: Tobon 7-4, Storck Franca 5-8
- Clay total points won: Tobon 51.9% vs 49.1%
- Clay first-serve points won: Tobon 69.8% vs 61.7%
- Break points saved on clay: Tobon 60.5% vs 49.0%
BetBugs · Match WinnerMiguel TobonEstimated chance63%

Games3 outcomes · top 59%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tobon's first sets on clay have been short on average, pulling the combined expectation below the line.
- Tobon clay set1 total games average: 8.18
- Storck Franca clay set1 total games average: 9.46
- Tobon clay set1: no tiebreaks in 11 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches have averaged just above this line, and three-set finishes are common for Tobon in particular.
- Tobon clay average total games: 22.8
- Storck Franca clay average total games: 23.1
- Tobon clay three-set matches: 6 of 11
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 22.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets on clay have averaged close to or above ten games.
- Tobon clay set2 total games average: 9.36
- Storck Franca clay set2 total games average: 9.92
- Storck Franca clay set2 tiebreaks: 3 of 13
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 outcomes · top 60%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tobon is stronger in second sets than first, while Storck Franca's second-set record on clay is clearly negative.
- Tobon clay set2: 7 wins, 4 losses
- Storck Franca clay set2: 5 wins, 8 losses
- Tobon clay set2 games won average: 5.09
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerMiguel TobonEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tobon's overall serve and points edge makes him the likelier early leader, though his first-set record on clay is only even.
- Tobon clay set1: 5 wins, 6 losses, 4.36 games won per set
- Storck Franca clay set1: 7 wins, 6 losses, 4.77 games lost per set
- Tobon clay total points won: 51.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerMiguel TobonEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results are almost as frequent as three-set ones across the two clay samples.
- Tobon clay straight-set results: 5 of 11
- Storck Franca clay straight-set results: 7 of 13
- Clay average sets: Tobon 2.55, Storck Franca 2.46
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 67%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most completed clay matches for both players finished without a tiebreak.
- Tobon clay: 8 of 11 matches had no tiebreak
- Storck Franca clay: 9 of 13 matches had no tiebreak
- Combined clay sample: 24 matches, 7 with a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' clay ace rates add up to more than the line on average.
- Tobon clay aces per match: 4.7
- Storck Franca clay aces per match: 2.7
- Combined clay average: 7.4 aces per match
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players double-fault regularly on clay, and their combined rate is above this line.
- Tobon clay double faults per match: 4.4
- Storck Franca clay double faults per match: 3.4
- Combined clay average: 7.8 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Miguel Tobon

9W 6L

6-1 6-0#1155Enrique Bogo

6-3 6-3#332Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

6-2 6-3#658Daniel Salazar Martinez

6-1 6-4#837Federico Zeballos

1-6 7-6(2) 6-2#283Valerio Aboian

4-6 6-2 7-6(1)#115Nicolas Mejia

6-1 2-6 6-4#318Gonzalo Villanueva

6-2 6-2#198Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

3-6 7-6(3) 7-6(2)#156Tomas Barrios Vera

4-6 6-4 6-1#590Thiago Cigarran

6-2 3-6 6-1#298Juan Bautista Torres

7-6(1) 6-1#208Edas Butvilas

6-3 6-3#896Koray Kirci

6-2 6-4#267Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-3 6-1#366Juan Pablo Ficovich

Leonardo Storck Franca

5W 8L

6-3 6-3#738Jose Pereira

6-3 7-6(2)#820Oscar Jose Gutierrez

6-3 6-0—Joao Vitor Scramin Do Lago

6-3 7-6(3)—Kaua Lorenzo Santos Gava

7-5 6-2#892Mateo Barreiros Reyes

4-6 6-4 6-1—Enzo Camargo Lima

6-4 6-7(10) 6-3#1664Julian Cundom

3-6 6-3 6-1#632Samuel Heredia

6-7(5) 6-2 6-1#410Mateus Alves

6-3 4-6 7-5—Nicolas Baena

6-1 6-2#113Gustavo Heide

6-2 7-5—Rafael De Alba

3-6 6-4 6-0#695Wilson Leite

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MTMiguel TobonTobon

Last 15 · 15 vs 13

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Leonardo Storck FrancaFrancaLF

Miguel Tobon carries the stronger recent form — Leonardo Storck Franca's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.6%—60.5%

1st Serve Won68.9%+7.2pp61.7%

2nd Serve Won49.4%+1.4pp50.8%

Aces / Match4.0+1.32.7

Double Faults / Match4.10.7 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.2%+1.5pp41.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted44.9%+6.2pp38.7%

Break Pts Saved63.9%+14.9pp49.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.3%+2.2pp49.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

60.6%1st Serve In—60.5%

68.9%1st Serve Won+7.2pp61.7%

49.4%2nd Serve Won+1.4pp50.8%

4.0Aces / Match+1.32.7

4.1Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer3.4

Return · 0–1

40.2%Return Pts Won+1.5pp41.7%

Pressure · 2–0

44.9%Break Pts Converted+6.2pp38.7%

63.9%Break Pts Saved+14.9pp49.0%

Points · 1–0

51.3%Total Pts Won+2.2pp49.1%