United StatesCharlottesville - USALive

James Kent Trotter #551JapanOzan Baris #407United States

Mon 2 Nov 2026, 15:002 Nov, 15:00LiveQ3I.hard

8Probabilities1Priced1Edges80%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOzan Baris · 144 places

James Kent Trotter

Japan

Trotter, 27, is right-handed and 183 cm. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 170 on 21 April 2025.

Current ranking: #551
Peak ranking: #170 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Ozan Baris

United States

The 22-year-old American is right-handed and 185 cm tall. His supplied current ranking of No. 486 matches the career high listed by Sofascore.

Current ranking: #407
Peak ranking: #486
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 2 Nov 2026, 15:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Trotter and Baris meet again a week after a three-set indoor-hard slog that Trotter edged 7-6, 6-7, 7-5, with a place in the Charlottesville main draw on the line.

Trotter's 9-5 hard-court record against Baris's 7-8 makes him the reasonable favourite, but 1.7 on Trotter needs 58.8% and the case supports about 56%; Baris at 2.05 needs 48.8% against 44%. Neither price holds up.

Context

Indoor hard court, low-tier qualifying stakes and no availability concerns; the fresh head-to-head and the contrasting hard-court records give the match more shape than its ranking profile suggests.

Trotter took the first set from a tiebreak, lost the second the same way and closed it out 7-5 in the third.
One match is a thin sample, but it shows the pair trading tiebreak sets rather than either man running away with it. It also cuts against the straight-set pattern both players otherwise carry, and gives Baris a second-set precedent in this specific matchup.
- 26 October 2026: Trotter beat Baris 7-6, 6-7, 7-5 in an indoor hard-court match, the only meeting in the supplied record.
- Two of the three sets reached a tiebreak; the third finished 7-5.
- The match sits inside Trotter's 14-match hard-court sample running from 31 August to 1 November 2026.
He also averaged 2.2 double faults and won 49.8% of total points across the same 15 matches.
These are the only serve numbers available for either player, so they carry more weight than usual in reading this matchup. A 70.8% first-serve points-won rate gives Baris a base to hold comfortably, though his 47.8% break-points-saved figure shows pressure still cost him games.
- 15 hard-court matches tracked, 6 August to 1 November 2026: 60.6% first serves in (575 of 949).
- 70.8% of first-serve points won (407 of 575) and 3.7 aces per match (55 total).
- 47.8% of break points saved (33 of 69) and 49.8% of total points won (980 of 1966).
His 14 matches average 2.21 sets and 21.07 games, with just two containing a tiebreak.
The profile is of short, controlled matches rather than grinders, which is why a two-set finish is the more natural expectation here. The counterweight is real: three of those 14 matches still went the distance or beyond, and the recent meeting with Baris ran to three sets.
- 14 hard-court matches, 31 August to 1 November 2026: scorelines of seven 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, four 0-2 losses and one 1-2 loss.
- Average sets per match 2.21; average total games 21.07.
- Only 2 of the 14 matches contained a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Slight lean

James Kent Trotter

1.70fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 58.8%

−2.8ppshort

Trotter's better recent hard-court record and narrow head-to-head win give him a modest advantage.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 56%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Trotter's better recent hard-court record and narrow head-to-head win give him a modest advantage.
- Trotter is 9-5 on hard in this sample; Baris is 7-8.
- Trotter won their 26 Oct hard-court meeting 2-1 (7-6, 6-7, 7-5).
- Trotter has won 9 of 14 first sets on hard; Baris has won 6 of 15.
BetBugs · Match WinnerJames Kent TrotterMarket price1.70Estimated chance56%

Games3 outcomes · top 59%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first-set averages and low tiebreak counts favor fewer than 10 games.
- Trotter's first sets average 9.29 total games on hard.
- Baris's first sets average 8.60 total games on hard.
- Trotter has 1 first-set tiebreak in 14 hard-court matches; Baris has 2 in 15.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set average is just under 9.5.
- Trotter's second sets average 9.57 total games on hard.
- Baris's second sets average 8.93 total games on hard.
- Trotter has 2 second-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches; Baris has 1 in 15.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined match length leans just under the line.
- Trotter's average total games is 21.07 across 14 hard-court matches.
- Baris's average total games is 21.40 across 15 hard-court matches.
- Both averages are slightly below 21.5.
BetBugs · Total GamesUnder 21.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 outcomes · top 68%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results are the majority in both players' hard-court records.
- Trotter's hard-court scorelines: 7 wins 2-0, 2 wins 2-1, 4 losses 0-2, 1 loss 1-2.
- Baris's hard-court scorelines: 4 wins 2-0, 3 wins 2-1, 5 losses 0-2, 3 losses 1-2.
- Average sets per match are 2.21 for Trotter and 2.40 for Baris.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Trotter's first-set record and the recent head-to-head set give him the clearer edge early.
- Trotter has won 9 of 14 first sets on hard.
- Baris has won 6 of 15 first sets on hard.
- Trotter took the first set 7-6 in their recent meeting.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerJames Kent TrotterEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Trotter's second-set record is slightly stronger, but the margin is small.
- Trotter has won 8 of 14 second sets on hard.
- Baris has won 8 of 15 second sets on hard.
- Their recent meeting went to a second-set tiebreak, which Baris won.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerJames Kent TrotterEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 outcome · top 80%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent hard-court matches have finished without a tiebreak.
- Trotter has 12 of 14 hard-court matches without a tiebreak.
- Baris has 13 of 15 hard-court matches without a tiebreak.
- Their recent meeting had two tiebreak sets, the main contrary case.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance80%

Prediction history

James Kent Trotter: 4/4 recent winner projections matched

4 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring James Kent Trotter matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for James Kent Trotter4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#328Hayato Matsuoka0-2#442James Kent Trotter

BetBugsJames Kent Trotter to win·55%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#328Hayato Matsuoka0-2#442James Kent Trotter

James Kent Trotter to win

55%probability

James Kent Trotter won

Matched

28 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

—Mikael Arseneault1-2#457James Kent Trotter

BetBugsJames Kent Trotter to win·58%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

—Mikael Arseneault1-2#457James Kent Trotter

James Kent Trotter to win

58%probability

James Kent Trotter won

Matched

13 Jul·Granby - Canada

#432James Kent Trotter2-1#900Benjamin Thomas George

BetBugsJames Kent Trotter to win·72%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#432James Kent Trotter2-1#900Benjamin Thomas George

James Kent Trotter to win

72%probability

James Kent Trotter won

Matched

28 Jun·Cary - USA

#899Ronit Karki1-2#420James Kent Trotter

BetBugsJames Kent Trotter to win·72%

Matched

28 Jun 2026

Cary - USA

#899Ronit Karki1-2#420James Kent Trotter

James Kent Trotter to win

72%probability

James Kent Trotter won

Matched

Previous match context available

James Kent Trotter

9W 6L

6-4 7-5#877Oliver Okonkwo

6-1 6-2#213Maks Kasnikowski

7-6(3) 6-7(6) 7-5#407Ozan Baris

4-6 6-3 6-4#477Trevor Svajda

1-6 6-4 6-3#531Gavin Young

6-3 6-2#284Stefan Kozlov

6-3 6-3#509Li Tu

7-5 7-6(4)—Alexander Okonkwo

6-2 6-3#408Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-4 6-1#142Federico Cina

6-3 6-2#692Thomas Fancutt

6-1 6-0—Ziyu Liu

6-7(4) 6-3 4-0 ret.#408Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-4 7-5#330Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-3 6-4#393Jie Cui

Ozan Baris

7W 8L

6-3 6-4#853Jangjun Kim

6-1 6-1#546Daniil Ostapenkov

7-6(3) 6-7(6) 7-5#551James Kent Trotter

6-3 6-4#598Hunter Heck

6-1 6-2#581Cosme Rolland De Ravel

7-6(4) 0-6 6-3#205Braden Shick

6-1 6-3#262Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

1-6 6-3 6-4#636Alex Rybakov

6-1 6-2#589Shunsuke Mitsui

6-4 4-6 6-4#462Evan Zhu

6-4 4-6 6-2#865Lorenzo Claverie

6-3 6-4—Nikita Filin

6-2 1-6 6-3#874Luca Pow

6-1 6-3—Mitchell Sheldon

6-0 6-2#208Edas Butvilas

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JTJames Kent TrotterTrotter

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Ozan BarisBarisOB

James Kent Trotter carries the stronger recent form — Ozan Baris's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.0%—60.6%

1st Serve Won74.9%+4.1pp70.8%

2nd Serve Won49.6%+4.4pp54.0%

Aces / Match7.3+3.63.7

Double Faults / Match2.90.7 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won37.8%+1.3pp36.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted38.7%+1.1pp37.6%

Break Pts Saved53.5%+5.7pp47.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.2%+1.4pp49.8%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

60.0%1st Serve In—60.6%

74.9%1st Serve Won+4.1pp70.8%

49.6%2nd Serve Won+4.4pp54.0%

7.3Aces / Match+3.63.7

2.9Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

37.8%Return Pts Won+1.3pp36.5%

Pressure · 2–0

38.7%Break Pts Converted+1.1pp37.6%

53.5%Break Pts Saved+5.7pp47.8%

Points · 1–0

51.2%Total Pts Won+1.4pp49.8%