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Petr Bar Biryukov #331RussiaYaroslav Demin #596Russia

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 06:001 Nov, 06:00FinalHard

9Probabilities3Priced3Edges75%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight lean

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePetr Bar Biryukov · 265 places

Petr Bar Biryukov

Russia

Born 28 February 2002, Bar Biryukov is a left-handed player with a two-handed backhand. Public results data records a career-best singles ranking of No. 267 on 27 October 2025; no reliable stated preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #331
Peak ranking: #267 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 196 cm

Yaroslav Demin

Russia

Demin, 21, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ATP singles ranking is No. 624, reached on 4 November 2024.

Current ranking: #596
Peak ranking: #624 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 31 Oct 2026, 19:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Demin is the lower-ranked finalist but the stronger hard-court player in this sample, while Biryukov has needed three sets in all four of his Ningbo wins.

Demin is the likely winner; the two quotes that offer enough are Demin to win 2-0 at 2.4 and Demin to take the first set at 1.6. The 1.55 match-winner price for Demin does not offer enough, and Biryukov at 2.3 is not justified.

Context

The final matches a higher-ranked Biryukov against an in-form Demin; Demin's first-set record and straight-set finishes are current hard-court patterns, while Biryukov's three-set week adds workload without confirming fatigue.

Demin's first-set dominance is the sharpest early-match split in the brief.
Those starts give Demin a direct route to control the final, while Biryukov's 9 first-set losses in 15 hard-court matches put more pressure on his recovery. The sample is recent but small, so the pattern is a lean rather than a guarantee.
- Demin won 12 of 14 first sets in completed hard-court matches tracked from 13 September to 31 October 2026.
- His first-set game average in that sample is 5.71 games won against 3.57 games lost.
- Only one of those 14 first sets reached a tiebreak.
Biryukov's serve gives him a path to keep the final close despite Demin's stronger hard-court results.
Biryukov's serve is the main reason he can stay close despite the hard-court form gap, because it gives him shorter service games and free points. The trade-off is his lower return points won and break points converted, which means he needs to hold consistently rather than rely on frequent breaks.
- Biryukov won 73.2% of first-serve points across 15 hard-court matches tracked from 17 September to 31 October 2026.
- He averaged 9.7 aces per match (146 aces over 15 matches) in that sample.
- His return points won was 31.4% and break points converted 30.6% over the same 15 matches.
Demin's return pressure is the clearest statistical separator between the two hard-court profiles.
Demin's return numbers explain why he has controlled more hard-court games in this sample; he breaks more often and makes more of his chances. Biryukov's serve can narrow that gap, but he will need to protect it because Demin's return pressure is the strongest part of his profile.
- Demin won 38.7% of return points over 15 matches tracked from 13 September to 31 October 2026.
- He converted 41.0% of break points (43 of 105) in that sample.
- He won 54.3% of hard-court games overall in the same 15-match window.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Lean

Yaroslav Demin

1.55fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 64.5%

−0.5ppshort

Demin has been the more dominant hard-court player in this stretch, especially on return and in straight-set wins.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 64%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Demin has been the more dominant hard-court player in this stretch, especially on return and in straight-set wins.
- Demin is 10-4 on hard courts in this sample, winning 71.0% of sets and 55.4% of games.
- Demin wins 38.7% of return points against Biryukov's 31.4%, and converts 42.3% of break points against 30.6%.
- Demin has six straight completed hard-court wins, including straight-set wins over Mayot and Broom.
- Biryukov is 9-6 on hard and needed three sets in all four Ningbo wins.
BetBugs · Match WinnerYaroslav DeminMarket price1.55Estimated chance64%

Games1 outcome · top 55%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Demin's straight-set wins have generally kept match totals modest, and he is the more likely winner.
- Demin's 14 hard-court matches average 21.0 total games.
- Biryukov's 15 hard-court matches average 23.5 total games.
- Demin won recent matches 12-7, 12-4 and 12-8 in games.
BetBugs · Total GamesUnder 22.5Estimated chance55%

Sets4 outcomes · top 68%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Demin has started matches much more strongly, winning the opening set in most of his hard-court matches.
- Demin has won the first set in 12 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Demin's first-set game average is 5.71 won to 3.57 lost.
- Biryukov has lost the first set in 9 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Demin has only one first-set tiebreak in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerYaroslav DeminMarket price1.60Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Demin's recent hard-court matches have ended in straight sets, and he is the more likely winner.
- Demin's 14 hard-court matches include 11 straight-set finishes.
- Biryukov's 15 hard-court matches include 10 straight-set finishes.
- Demin's 10 hard-court wins include nine 2-0 scorelines.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Demin's second-set record is still stronger overall, though less so than his first-set record.
- Demin has won 9 of 14 second sets on hard.
- Demin's second-set game average is 5.07 won to 4.64 lost.
- Biryukov has won 7 of 15 second sets on hard.
- Biryukov won the second set in three of four Ningbo wins.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerYaroslav DeminEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Demin has usually won his hard-court matches without dropping a set.
- Demin's hard-court scorelines include nine 2-0 wins in 14 matches.
- Demin's 10 hard-court wins include nine straight-set victories.
- Demin has won six straight completed hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set BettingYaroslav Demin 2-0Market price2.40Estimated chance53%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 75%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have mostly avoided tiebreaks on hard courts, and Demin's sets in particular have rarely reached one.
- Biryukov had tiebreaks in 4 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Demin had tiebreaks in 2 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Only one of Demin's 14 first sets and one second set reached a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault rate is below 8.5, and Demin's count is relatively low.
- Biryukov averages 4.4 double faults per match on hard.
- Demin averages 3.6 double faults per match on hard.
- Combined average is 8.0, below 8.5.
- Demin has 50 double faults in 14 current-surface matches.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Biryukov's serve gives the match a high ace base, and Demin adds enough to make more than 14.5 aces a slight lean.
- Biryukov averages 9.7 aces per match on hard.
- Demin averages 5.0 aces per match on the current surface.
- Their combined average is 14.7 aces per match.
- Biryukov has 146 aces in 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 14.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Petr Bar Biryukov

9W 6L

6-4 1-6 6-3#231Liam Broady

4-6 6-4 6-1#393Jie Cui

5-7 6-3 6-4#292Fajing Sun

6-7(1) 7-6(5) 6-4#432Semen Pankin

6-2 6-3#132Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-1 6-2#386Omar Jasika

6-3 7-6(5)#761Yuta Tomida

6-2 6-4—Maksim Shin

6-4 6-1#112Dane Sweeny

7-5 6-4#433Masamichi Imamura

6-4 6-4#130Alexandre Muller

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#199Andre Ilagan

7-5 6-3#223Marat Sharipov (RUS)

7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(0)#408Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4#637Naoya Honda

Yaroslav Demin

10W 5L

7-5 1-6 6-4#330Yu Hsiou Hsu 6-3 6-4#233Harold Mayot

6-1 6-3#268Charles Broom

6-4 6-4#297Carl Emil Overbeck

6-0 6-4#890Qian Sun

7-6(6) 6-3#724Martin Borisiouk

4-6 6-4 6-3#294Akira Santillan

6-4 6-2#368Kasidit Samrej

6-3 7-6(4)#466Alexandr Binda

2-6 6-4 6-3#237Matthew Dellavedova

6-2 7-5#643Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-3#294Akira Santillan

6-4 6-4#528Beibit Zhukayev

6-3 6-3#827Hanyi Liu

6-4 6-3#441Jack Loge

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PBPetr Bar BiryukovBiryukov

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Yaroslav DeminDeminYD

Yaroslav Demin carries the stronger recent form — Petr Bar Biryukov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In60.2%+5.1pp65.3%

1st Serve Won73.2%+3.8pp69.4%

2nd Serve Won53.6%+1.2pp52.4%

Aces / Match9.7+4.94.8

Double Faults / Match4.40.8 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won31.4%+7.3pp38.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted30.6%+10.4pp41.0%

Break Pts Saved59.5%+7.2pp66.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.9%+2.4pp51.3%

Serve · 3–2

60.2%1st Serve In+5.1pp65.3%

73.2%1st Serve Won+3.8pp69.4%

53.6%2nd Serve Won+1.2pp52.4%

9.7Aces / Match+4.94.8

4.4Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

31.4%Return Pts Won+7.3pp38.7%

Pressure · 0–2

30.6%Break Pts Converted+10.4pp41.0%

59.5%Break Pts Saved+7.2pp66.7%

Points · 0–1

48.9%Total Pts Won+2.4pp51.3%

Petr Bar Biryukov

Yaroslav Demin

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yaroslav Demin

Yaroslav Demin 2-0

Yaroslav Demin

Result1 outcome · top 64%

Games1 outcome · top 55%

Sets4 outcomes · top 68%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 75%

Petr Bar Biryukov

Yaroslav Demin

Stat Battle