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Aidan Mayo #321United StatesDuncan Chan #467Canada

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 22:301 Nov, 22:30Q1I.hard

10Probabilities2Priced4Edges67%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAidan Mayo · 146 places

Aidan Mayo

United States

Reached a career-high No. 269 on 20 May 2024 and is No. 625 in the supplied structured data. He won the Drummondville Challenger in November 2024.

Current ranking: #321
Peak ranking: #269 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Duncan Chan

Canada

Canadian right-hander, born 29 July 2005. Public player databases list a singles career-high of No. 601 in July 2026 and show his recorded 2026 matches on hard courts.

Current ranking: #467
Peak ranking: #601 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 1 Nov 2026, 15:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Mayo's serve and 10-5 hard-court record make him the favourite, and a straight-set win is the likeliest result.

Chan's counter is his break-point conversion and a tendency toward long matches. Mayo at 1.33 asks more than that case justifies; Chan to win 2-1 at 5.75 and Chan to take the second set at 2.6 both carry a small margin.

Context

No head-to-head, availability or researched context is on file. The matchup-specific conditions are the schedule gap, with Mayo playing on 31 October and Chan on 26 October, and Chan's three-set record across 15 hard-court matches.

His 15-match window averages 2.53 sets and 24.9 games, and his first-set record of 5-10 means he often needs the comeback. That pattern is the most plausible route to an upset here, since a quick two-set win is not how his matches have gone. The sample is 15 matches, so it is a tendency rather than a rule.
- Scorelines across 15 completed hard-court matches, 14 July to 26 October 2026: 2-1 five times, 1-2 three times, 0-2 five times, 2-0 twice.
- Average sets per match 2.53; average total games 24.87.
- First sets 5-10; second sets 7-8.
Mayo's window averages 2.33 sets and 22.9 games, and he wins 62.9% of the sets he plays. A large share of his wins are closed out in two sets, which points away from the long match Chan tends to produce. Both records cover 15 matches, so the contrast between them is a lean rather than a settled pattern.
- Scorelines across 15 completed hard-court matches, 28 August to 31 October 2026: 2-0 seven times, 2-1 three times, 0-2 three times, 1-2 twice.
- Average sets per match 2.33; average total games 22.93; average duration 106.7 minutes.
- Sets won 62.9% (22 of 35); games won 55.2% (190 of 344).
Return is where Chan's record is strongest, and converting break points at 42.0% matters in a match where clear chances may be few. The other side of it is that he saves only 55.9% of break points and lands 59.9% of first serves, so he gives chances back. Across a 15-match sample the conversion rate is a signal to watch, not a fixed expectation.
- Break points converted 42.0% (47 of 112) across 15 hard-court matches, 14 July to 26 October 2026.
- Return points won 40.3% (491 of 1218); break points saved 55.9% (71 of 127).
- First-serve in rate 59.9% (759 of 1268).
Mayo, ranked 321, was beaten by a higher-ranked opponent in Dietrich.
It is the freshest result on Mayo and came one day before this match, though nothing in the record says he was carrying a problem. His wider 15-match hard-court window from 28 August to 31 October still reads 10-5 with 52.2% of points won. Dietrich's ranking of 254 makes him a stronger opponent than Chan at 467.
- Mayo lost 4-6 2-6 to Dylan Dietrich (ranked 254) on 31 October 2026 on indoor hard court.
- The match lasted two completed sets, with Mayo winning six games and losing twelve.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Strong lean

Aidan Mayo

1.33fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 75.2%

−8.2ppshort

Mayo has the stronger serve and better hard-court results, giving him a clear but not overwhelming advantage.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 67%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Mayo has the stronger serve and better hard-court results, giving him a clear but not overwhelming advantage.
- Aidan Mayo is 10-5 on hard in the last 15 matches; Duncan Chan is 7-8.
- Mayo wins 52.2% of total points on hard against Chan's 49.2%.
- Mayo holds a 76.8% first-serve points won rate on hard, compared with Chan's 66.8%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerAidan MayoMarket price1.33Estimated chance67%

Games3 outcomes · top 53%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chan's first sets often run past nine games, and a tight opener is plausible.
- Mayo's first sets average 9.2 total games; Chan's average 10.1.
- Chan has had four first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
- Mayo has had two first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chan's longer matches and the chance of a third set push the total just above the 23.5 mark.
- Mayo's hard-court matches average 22.9 total games; Chan's average 24.9.
- Chan's 15 hard matches include eight three-setters.
- The set scores point to about 9.8 games per set for both players.
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chan's shorter second sets make under just more likely than over.
- Chan's second sets average 9.1 total games.
- Chan has had one second-set tiebreak in 15 hard matches.
- Mayo's second sets average 9.7 total games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 outcomes · top 66%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Mayo starts sets better and has the stronger serve, so he is favored to take the opener.
- Mayo is 10-5 in first sets on hard; Chan is 5-10.
- Mayo averages 5.33 games won in first sets; Chan averages 4.47.
- Chan has lost 10 of 15 first sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerAidan MayoMarket price1.44Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mayo's second-set record is better, though the gap is smaller than in the first set.
- Mayo is 9-6 in second sets on hard; Chan is 7-8.
- Mayo averages 5.27 games won in second sets; Chan averages 4.33.
- Mayo has a 76.8% first-serve points won rate on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerAidan MayoEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayo's straight-set wins and Chan's straight-set losses make a two-set finish more likely.
- Mayo has won 2-0 in seven of his 15 hard matches.
- Mayo's average hard match lasts 2.33 sets, below the 2.5 mark.
- Chan has lost 0-2 in five of 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 59%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their hard-court matches do not include a tiebreak.
- Each player has had six tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
- Mayo's hard matches average 2.33 sets; Chan's average 2.53.
- Neither player's first-serve numbers point to constant unreturned serves.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their combined ace average is 11.0, just under the 11.5 mark.
- Mayo averages 6.9 aces per hard match; Chan averages 4.1.
- Their combined average is 11.0 aces per match.
- Chan averages 4.1 aces per hard match.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 11.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average is slightly above the 8.5 mark.
- Mayo averages 4.1 double faults per hard match; Chan averages 4.5.
- Their combined average is 8.6 double faults per match.
- Chan has a 59.9% first-serve in rate on hard.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 8.5Estimated chance51%

Previous match context available

Aidan Mayo

10W 5L

6-4 6-2#254Dylan Dietrich 6-3 6-4#316Mees Rottgering

6-2 6-7(4) 7-5#213Maks Kasnikowski

6-2 6-3#275Hynek Barton

7-6(5) 0-6 7-6(5)#396Sander Jong

1-6 6-0 7-5#535Kaylan Bigun

6-4 2-6 7-6(7)#218Colton Smith

7-6(7) 7-5#308Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 7-6(8)#218Colton Smith

6-4 6-4—Nikita Filin

6-3 6-4#402Sebastian Gorzny

6-2 6-2—Jordan Lee

1-6 6-4 6-4#568Ryan Seggerman

6-3 7-6(7)#224Andres Andrade

6-3 6-4#541Luis Queiroz Miguel

Duncan Chan

7W 8L

7-6(5) 7-5#812Benjamin Willwerth

4-6 6-1 6-4#531Gavin Young

7-6(4) 2-6 6-3#690Roger Pascual Ferra

6-2 6-4#218Colton Smith

6-3 6-2#766Keaton Hance

6-7(11) 6-3 7-6(4)—Denis Petak

6-3 6-2#177Taro Daniel

6-3 1-6 7-6(3)#51Thiago Agustin Tirante

2-6 7-5 6-3#110Hugo Gaston

6-4 6-1#112Dane Sweeny

6-2 2-6 6-4#129Shintaro Mochizuki

7-6(5) 4-6 7-5#255James McCabe

3-6 7-6(2) 6-3#467Cesar Bouchelaghem

6-3 6-4#437Alafia Ayeni

6-4 6-2#312Daniel Milavsky

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAidan MayoMayo

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Duncan ChanChanDC

Aidan Mayo carries the stronger recent form — Duncan Chan's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In57.2%+2.7pp59.9%

1st Serve Won76.8%+10.0pp66.8%

2nd Serve Won50.6%+6.6pp44.0%

Aces / Match6.9+2.84.1

Double Faults / Match4.10.4 fewer4.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.9%+1.4pp40.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted34.4%+7.6pp42.0%

Break Pts Saved73.0%+17.1pp55.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.2%+3.0pp49.2%

Serve · 4–1

57.2%1st Serve In+2.7pp59.9%

76.8%1st Serve Won+10.0pp66.8%

50.6%2nd Serve Won+6.6pp44.0%

6.9Aces / Match+2.84.1

4.1Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer4.5

Return · 0–1

38.9%Return Pts Won+1.4pp40.3%

Pressure · 1–1

34.4%Break Pts Converted+7.6pp42.0%

73.0%Break Pts Saved+17.1pp55.9%

Points · 1–0

52.2%Total Pts Won+3.0pp49.2%

Aidan Mayo

Duncan Chan

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Duncan Chan

Duncan Chan 2-1

Aidan Mayo

Aidan Mayo

Result1 outcome · top 67%

Games3 outcomes · top 53%

Sets3 outcomes · top 66%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 59%

Aidan Mayo

Duncan Chan

Stat Battle