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Predictions graded

Yaroslav Demin #596Russia2Yu Hsiou Hsu #330Taiwan1

Sets 7-5 · 1-6 · 6-4Sat 31 Oct 2026, 07:00 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYu Hsiou Hsu · 266 places

Yaroslav Demin

Russia

Demin, 21, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ATP singles ranking is No. 624, reached on 4 November 2024.

Current ranking: #596
Peak ranking: #624 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Yu Hsiou Hsu

Taiwan

Reached a career-high No. 158 on 16 October 2023. Hard courts are listed as his favourite surface.

Current ranking: #330
Peak ranking: #158 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 15:12 · Europe/Bucharest

A Challenger semi-final between 596-ranked Demin, unbeaten in five straight-set matches this week, and 330-ranked Hsu, whose serve data is missing.

Demin is the likelier winner, and 2.4 to win the match offers something, as do 4.25 for a 2-0 win and 2.2 for the first set. The 1.5 quoted on Hsu asks more than his record supports.

Context

Demin's 9-4 hard-court record in that sample came with 20 of 28 sets won, and nine of the 13 matches ended in two sets. Short, controlled matches have been his norm. Hsu has won six of his eight hard-court matches in straight sets as well, so a two-set finish is plausible from either side.
- Set evidence covers 13 completed hard-court matches from 13 September to 30 October 2026.
- Scorelines: nine wins 2-0, two losses 1-2, two losses 0-2.
- Demin won 20 of 28 sets (71.4%) and 149 of 265 games (56.2%) in the sample.
Hsu's first-set record is a real counterweight to Demin's 11-2 opening-set mark on hard, because he has lost only five opening sets in 14 matches. If Demin's fast starts slip, Hsu's habit of banking the first set gives him a route in. His second sets, level at 7-7, suggest the opposite drift later on.
- Set evidence covers 14 completed hard-court matches from 28 July to 30 October 2026, with one retirement excluded.
- First sets: 9 wins, 5 losses, 5.1 games won against 4.2 lost on average.
- Second sets: 7 wins, 7 losses, 4.7 games won against 4.6 lost.
Hsu is the higher-ranked player here at 330 and arrived in Ningbo with three-set wins behind him.
Smith is the best-ranked opponent in the supplied recent record, and Hsu won after dropping the opener. That shows he can stay in a match when the first set goes against him, which matters against an opponent who has started quickly all week. The margins were narrow throughout: 4-6, 7-5, 7-6.
- Match dated 27 October 2026, hard court, against Keegan Smith, ranked 185.
- Scoreline: 4-6, 7-5, 7-6 across three sets.
- Hsu won 18 games to 17 in the match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Demin's serve numbers and set-by-set control on hard are the most complete evidence, and his week-long winning run came against similar Challenger opposition.
- Demin is 9-4 on hard in his last 13 completed matches, winning 71.4% of sets and 56.2% of games.
- On hard he holds 70.4% of first-serve points and saves 69.4% of break points.
- Hsu is 8-6 on the same surface with no serve or return data supplied for comparison.
- Demin has won five straight matches this week without dropping a set.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYaroslav DeminEstimated chance56%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The opening sets for both men have generally been settled before the ten-game mark.
- Demin has won 11 of 13 first sets with a 5.6 to 3.5 game average.
- Hsu's first sets average 5.1 games won to 4.2 lost.
- First-set tiebreaks are rare for both players on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Demin's game dominance has produced short scorelines all week, which keeps the total below the line more often than not.
- Demin has won his five matches this week by game margins of 12-7, 12-4, 12-8, 12-4 and 13-9.
- His hard-court matches average 20.4 total games.
- He has won 56.2% of games on hard, indicating one-sided scorelines.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been the tighter half for both players, with Demin's average sitting just above the line.
- Demin's second sets on hard average 9.9 total games.
- Hsu's second sets on hard average 9.4 total games.
- Hsu is 7-7 in second sets, indicating frequent close sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both scoreline records, and Demin's week has been unusually clean.
- Demin has won 9 of 13 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Hsu has won 6 of 14 hard-court matches in straight sets and lost 4 in straight sets.
- Demin has not dropped a set in five matches this week.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Demin's first-set record on hard is the strongest single split in the evidence, and he has started fast every day this week.
- Demin has won 11 of 13 first sets on hard this season.
- He has won his opening set in all five matches this week.
- Hsu has lost five of 14 first sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYaroslav DeminEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Demin's second-set record is positive while Hsu's is level, which slightly favours Demin if the match reaches a second set.
- Demin has won 9 of 13 second sets on hard.
- He has taken the second set in each of his five wins this week.
- Hsu is 7-7 in second sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostYaroslav DeminEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' sets are usually decided before 6-6, so avoiding a tiebreak is the more likely outcome.
- Only 2 of Demin's 13 hard-court matches and 3 of Hsu's 14 contained a tiebreak.
- Demin's first sets average 9.1 total games.
- Most of Demin's wins this week were completed in 12 or 13 games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance67%

Previous match context available

Yaroslav Demin

10W 5L

6-3 6-4#233Harold Mayot

6-1 6-3#268Charles Broom

6-4 6-4#297Carl Emil Overbeck

6-0 6-4#890Qian Sun

7-6(6) 6-3#724Martin Borisiouk

4-6 6-4 6-3#294Akira Santillan

6-4 6-2#368Kasidit Samrej

6-3 7-6(4)#466Alexandr Binda

2-6 6-4 6-3#237Matthew Dellavedova

6-2 7-5#643Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-3#294Akira Santillan

6-4 6-4#528Beibit Zhukayev

6-3 6-3#827Hanyi Liu

6-4 6-3#441Jack Loge

6-4 6-2#889Niklas Schell

Yu Hsiou Hsu

9W 6L

6-3 6-3#327Mert Alkaya

7-5 3-6 6-4#404Yuta Shimizu

4-6 7-5 7-6(7)#185Keegan Smith

6-2 6-4#393Jie Cui

3-6 6-2 7-5#417Olle Wallin

6-3 6-3#220Ilya Ivashka

6-4 7-5#551James Kent Trotter

7-6(4) 5-5 ret.#227Elias Ymer

6-3 6-2#237Matthew Dellavedova

6-1 6-1#433Masamichi Imamura

6-3 6-2#659Ryuki Matsuda

6-2 7-6(5)#752Kuan-Shou Chen

7-6(5) 6-3—Kai-I Wang

3-6 6-1 6-2#402Sebastian Gorzny

6-3 6-4#147Michael Mmoh

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YDYaroslav DeminDemin

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Yu Hsiou HsuHsuYH

Yaroslav Demin carries the stronger recent form — Yu Hsiou Hsu's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1566.6%+0.8pp67.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1570.9%+3.6pp67.3%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1551.7%+5.9pp57.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/155.0+1.23.8

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.91.8 fewer1.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1538.9%—38.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1539.6%+4.5pp35.1%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1566.7%+19.3pp47.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.9%+0.9pp51.0%

Serve · 2–3

66.6%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp67.4%

70.9%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.6pp67.3%

51.7%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+5.9pp57.6%

5.0Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.23.8

2.9Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.8 fewer1.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.9%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—38.7%

Pressure · 2–0

39.6%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+4.5pp35.1%

66.7%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+19.3pp47.4%

Points · 1–0

51.9%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+0.9pp51.0%

Yaroslav Demin

Yu Hsiou Hsu

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yaroslav Demin

Yaroslav Demin

Yaroslav Demin 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Yaroslav Demin

Yu Hsiou Hsu

Stat Battle