ChinaWTA GuangzhouLive

Xinran Sun #415ChinaHarriet Dart #115United Kingdom

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 08:3031 Oct, 08:30LiveSemi-FinalHard

8Probabilities1Priced1Edges64%Strongest

LeanSlight lean

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Moura Monteiro · 300 places

Xinran Sun

China

Sun, 16, is the reigning US Open junior champion and the ITF junior world No. 1, and she is making her WTA 1000 main-draw debut in Beijing on a wildcard. Nearly all of her recent matches have come at ITF level on clay, so her senior hard-court profile is barely established.

Current ranking: #415
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 16
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Thiago Moura Monteiro

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 61 in October 2022; the supplied current ranking is No. 276. He is a left-handed baseline player most established on clay, where all 16 of his Challenger finals have been played.

Current ranking: #115
Peak ranking: #61 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 15:14 · Europe/Bucharest

A Guangzhou semi-final between the 415th-ranked Sun, who has won four of five hard-court matches in October, and Dart, ranked 115, with 15 matches of hard-court form behind her.

Dart is the likelier winner on that depth, but 1.73 asks for more than the record supports and 2.10 on Sun is no better. Neither quoted price is worth taking.

Context

The semi-final stakes and the contrast between Dart's 15-match hard-court body of work and Sun's five-match run give the match genuine shape, but with no head-to-head record, no sourced availability news and no positive price, the sporting conditions around it are ordinary.

Dart's recent hard-court matches have usually run past two sets, with only four of the 15 finished in straight sets.
Dart's hard-court work from 28 August to 30 October has repeatedly stretched past two sets: 8 of 15 matches went the distance, and she averages 2.6 sets and 123.1 minutes per match. Sun, by contrast, closed three of her five matches in straight sets at 2.2 sets per match. It points to Dart's edge, if it comes, arriving slowly rather than in a rush.
- Dart went 2-1 in 8 of 15 hard-court matches and averaged 2.6 sets and 24.0 total games per match, 28 August to 30 October 2026.
- Dart's average match duration across the same 15-match sample was 123.1 minutes.
Sun's recent hard-court results came against opponents ranked well above her own 415.
The sample is five matches and excludes one retirement, so it is thin. The opposition was not: four wins came against players ranked inside 110, and the single defeat was 0-2 to Gauff, ranked 5. Sun also finished three of the five in straight sets at 2.2 sets per match. Whether that carries into a semi-final against a 115-ranked opponent with 15 hard-court matches behind her is the open question.
- Sun: 4-1 in five hard-court matches, 3 October to 30 October 2026, with wins over Liu (109), Timofeeva (72), Sawangkaew (80) and Bucsa (42) and a loss to Gauff (5).
- One retirement is excluded from the five-match sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Slight lean

Harriet Dart

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

−2.8ppshort

Dart has the far deeper body of hard-court work and wins a higher share of points on serve and return than an opponent who has played only five matches in the window.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 55%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Dart has the far deeper body of hard-court work and wins a higher share of points on serve and return than an opponent who has played only five matches in the window.
- Dart: 12-3 in last 15 hard matches, 52.9% total points won, 67.4% first-serve points won
- Sun: 4-1 on this hard-court window but ranked 415 vs Dart's 115
- Dart won 25 of 39 sets (64.1%) across a 15-match hard sample
- Sun's recent wins came over Liu (109), Timofeeva (72), Sawangkaew (80) and Bucsa (42)
BetBugs · Match WinnerHarriet DartMarket price1.73Estimated chance55%

Games3 outcomes · top 55%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players sit at or above nine and a half games in second sets, with Dart's tiebreak frequency adding length.
- Sun second-set total games average 10.4
- Dart second-set total games average 9.6
- Dart has 4 second-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players cluster near the line, with Dart slightly above it and Sun just below.
- Dart total games average 24.0 across 15 hard matches
- Sun total games average 23.4 across 5 hard matches
- Dart average match duration 123 minutes
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 23.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Averaging the two first-set totals puts the match just above the line.
- Sun first-set total games average 10.4
- Dart first-set total games average 9.1
- Neither player has a first-set tiebreak in the samples
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 outcomes · top 54%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Opening sets have been Dart's stronger half across a much larger sample, even though Sun's short record is impressive.
- Dart set1: 9 wins, 6 losses, 4.9 games won vs 4.2 lost over 15 hard matches
- Sun set1: 4 wins, 1 loss, 6.0 games won vs 4.4 lost over 5 matches
- Dart has no first-set tiebreaks in the sample; Sun none either
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerHarriet DartEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dart's second sets are the closer of her two, but she still holds a narrow edge over a small Sun sample.
- Dart set2: 8 wins, 7 losses, 5.1 games won vs 4.5 lost over 15 hard matches
- Sun set2: 3 wins, 2 losses, 5.0 games won vs 5.4 lost over 5 matches
- Dart has played 4 second-set tiebreaks in the sample
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerHarriet DartEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sun has finished matches quickly this month and a straight-set result would fit her pattern more than Dart's.
- Sun: 3 of 5 hard matches won 2-0, one loss 0-2
- Sun 2.2 sets per match average
- Dart won 4 of 15 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 outcome · top 64%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' completed matches on this surface have been settled without a tiebreak.
- Dart: 4 of 15 hard matches contained a tiebreak
- Sun: 2 of 5 hard matches contained a tiebreak
- Dart's average match duration is 123 minutes without frequent tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance64%

Xinran Sun

10W 5L

7-5 7-6(2)#109Claire Liu

6-3 4-6 7-6(3)#72Maria Timofeeva

6-3 6-4#80Mananchaya Sawangkaew

7-5 6-1#5Cori Gauff

6-4 7-5#42Cristina Bucsa

6-1 3-0 ret.#160Eva Lys

6-2 6-2#343Luna Vujovic

6-2 6-3—Mariia Masiianskaia

6-1 6-1—Nadja Mladenovic

6-4 7-6(5)#372Varvara Panshina

6-0 6-3#422Elena Milovanovic

7-6(1) 6-2#465Anja Stankovic

6-4 6-3#419Valentina Ivanov

6-2 6-1#727Mia Horvit

6-0 6-2—Mariya Yemshanova

Harriet Dart

12W 3L

3-6 6-2 6-4#61Paula Badosa Gibert

6-4 3-6 6-3#47Janice Tjen

6-4 2-6 6-2#123Tatiana Prozorova

6-2 6-1#257Mei Yamaguchi

5-7 7-6(5) 6-1#635Cheuk Ying Shek

7-5 7-6(6)#38Talia Gibson

6-3 6-7(6) 6-3#300Aoi Ito

6-3 6-1#305Rina Saigo

2-6 6-3 6-3#12Iva Jovic

6-2 6-7(5) 7-5—Unknown Player

6-3 6-2#194Yexin Ma

6-2 6-3#437Tiphanie Lemaitre

6-2 6-2#24Marie Bouzkova

3-6 6-3 6-2#37Peyton Stearns

2-6 6-4 6-1#384Heather Watson

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

XSXinran SunSun

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Harriet DartDartHD

Xinran Sun carries the stronger recent form — Harriet Dart's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1557.0%—57.3%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1562.1%+5.3pp67.4%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1547.4%+3.0pp44.4%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/151.4+1.73.1

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.41.9 fewer4.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1549.1%+0.8pp48.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1551.8%+2.4pp49.4%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1545.5%+10.0pp55.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1552.4%—52.9%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

57.0%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15—57.3%

62.1%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+5.3pp67.4%

47.4%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.0pp44.4%

1.4Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.73.1

2.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.9 fewer4.3

Return · 1–0

49.1%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+0.8pp48.3%

Pressure · 1–1

51.8%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+2.4pp49.4%

45.5%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+10.0pp55.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.4%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—52.9%