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Predictions graded

Francesca Jones #98United Kingdom0Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva #607Brazil1

Sets 5-7Fri 30 Oct 2026, 18:50 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrancesca Jones · 509 places

Francesca Jones

United Kingdom

British player who reached the 2026 US Open qualifying draw as its third seed after consecutive WTA 125 titles in Rome and Palermo.

Current ranking: #98
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva

Brazil

Born March 13, 2010, Leme Da Silva is a Brazilian right-hander. Her singles ranking peak is No. 594, reached in 2026.

Current ranking: #607
Peak ranking: #594 · 2026
Current age: 16
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 15:03 · Europe/Bucharest

A top-100 player against a 607-ranked opponent having a good week on clay: Jones should win, but 1.3 on her asks more than her record justifies, and 1.36 for the second set and 1.8 for a 2-0 win are tight as well.

The one price that stands up is under 2.5 sets at 1.44.

Context

Da Silva dropped the second set 1-6 and still recovered to take the decider 6-3, a result that underlines her willingness to stay in long matches. At 607 she was giving away more than 400 ranking places and still won, which is the most persuasive evidence in her favour this week. Her follow-up, a 6-4 6-4 win over Luisina Giovannini on 28 October, was more straightforward.
- 26 October 2026: Da Silva beat Despina Papamichail (ranked 193) 7-5 1-6 6-3 on clay.
- 28 October 2026: Da Silva beat Luisina Giovannini (ranked 199) 6-4 6-4 on clay.
Da Silva's first serve is a genuine weapon at 66.2% of points won, but the gap to her second serve is wide: 41.0% across 424 second-serve points in the same sample. She also averages 5.6 double faults a match, more than two per set at her typical length of about 93 minutes. Against a returner of Jones's level, that second-serve number is the part of her game most likely to be tested repeatedly.
- Last 14 matches with serve data: 5.6 double faults per match (78 total).
- Second-serve points won: 41.0% (174 of 424); first-serve points won: 66.2% (354 of 535).
- Average match duration 93 minutes across 14 matches.
Jones's first sets on clay were close to level at 5-4, with 5.0 games won against 5.22 lost, but her second sets swung clearly her way. That pattern fits her 2-1 scorelines being limited to one win and one loss in the sample, with five 2-0 wins doing most of the work. One retirement was excluded from the nine matches, which is worth noting when reading the set splits.
- Nine completed clay matches, earliest 8 September 2026, latest 29 October 2026; one retirement excluded.
- Second sets: 7 wins, 2 losses, 5.67 games won and 3.56 games lost on average.
- First sets: 5 wins, 4 losses, 5.0 games won and 5.22 games lost; one first-set tiebreak in nine matches.
Jones is the higher-ranked player and arrived in Curitiba in winning form on clay.
Jones won both sets without needing a tiebreak and gave up only seven games, the sort of controlled scoreline expected against a player outside the top 700. The opponent's ranking tempers what it proves: Souza sits at 747, so this says more about Jones closing out winnable matches than about her level against a top-200 opponent. Da Silva, by contrast, has spent this week beating players ranked 199 and 193.
- 29 October 2026: Francesca Jones beat Marjorie Souza (ranked 747) 6-4 6-3 on clay, 12 games to 7.
- Both sets were decided by service breaks, with no tiebreak in the match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match Winnernot gradableUncertainty band: Strong lean

Francesca Jones

1.30fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 76.9%

−6.9ppshort

Jones is the far higher-ranked player and has the stronger clay body of work despite a couple of lower-ranked losses.

Set 2 Winnernot gradableUncertainty band: Strong lean

Francesca Jones

1.36fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 73.5%

−8.5ppshort

Jones has been notably stronger in second sets on clay, while Da Silva's second-set record is under .500.

Set Bettingnot gradableUncertainty band: Slight lean

Francesca Jones 2-0

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

−0.6ppshort

Jones's winning formula on clay is convincing straight-sets victories, which fits a 2-0 result.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Jones is the far higher-ranked player and has the stronger clay body of work despite a couple of lower-ranked losses.
- Ranked 98 against 607
- 6-3 on clay in her last 9 completed matches
- Won 7 of 9 clay second sets
BetBugs · Match Winnernot gradableFrancesca JonesEstimated chance70%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been shorter for both players on clay, favouring an under.
- Jones set2 total averaged 9.2 games
- Da Silva set2 total averaged 8.4 games
- No second-set tiebreaks in either sample
BetBugs · Set 2 Total Gamesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have typically reached at least ten games for both players on clay.
- Jones set1 total averaged 10.2 games
- Da Silva set1 total averaged 9.9 games
- One first-set tiebreak each in nine matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches average around 20-22 games, so the total sits near the line.
- Jones averaged 21.6 games per clay match
- Da Silva averaged 20.2 games per clay match
- Combined average sits just above the line
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableOver 20.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jones's wins have generally been by wide margins, so a modest handicap line is close to even.
- Jones's clay wins include margins of +5 and +7 games
- Her losses came by -6 and -8 games
- Da Silva's clay wins include one +10 margin
BetBugs · Game Handicapnot gradableFrancesca Jones -3.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Both players generally finish clay matches in straight sets, so a two-set result is the likelier outcome.
- Jones scorelines on clay include five 2-0 wins
- Da Silva has four 2-0 wins in nine clay matches
- Both averaged 2.22 sets per match
BetBugs · Total Setsnot gradableUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Jones has been notably stronger in second sets on clay, while Da Silva's second-set record is under .500.
- Jones set2 record 7-2 on clay
- Jones set2 games 5.67 won / 3.56 lost
- Da Silva set2 record 4-5 on clay
BetBugs · Set 2 Winnernot gradableFrancesca JonesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jones's first sets on clay have been tight, but her overall level edge keeps her slightly ahead early.
- Jones set1 record 5-4 on clay
- Da Silva set1 record 6-3 on clay
- Jones set1 games 5.0 won / 5.22 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFrancesca JonesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Jones's winning formula on clay is convincing straight-sets victories, which fits a 2-0 result.
- Five of Jones's six clay wins were 2-0
- Jones set2 record 7-2 on clay
- Da Silva has lost 12-9 and 12-4 in recent clay defeats
BetBugs · Set Bettingnot gradableFrancesca Jones 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent clay sets have mostly been settled without reaching a tiebreak.
- One tiebreak in nine clay matches for each player
- Set totals average around ten games or fewer
- Most sets were decided by breaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in Matchnot gradableNoEstimated chance72%

Francesca Jones

10W 5L

6-4 6-3#747Marjorie Souza

7-5 6-1#454Maria Florencia Urrutia

6-2 6-4#152Dalma Galfi

6-3 6-4#218Francisca Jorge

7-5 6-1#420Martina Colmegna

6-0 6-4#185Mona Barthel

5-7 6-3 6-3#645Alja Senica

7-6(5) 5-7 6-4#197Rositsa Dencheva

6-4 6-3#390Raluca Georgiana Serban

6-4 6-4#12Iva Jovic

6-4 1-6 6-3#71Magda Linette

6-4 6-1#160Joanna Garland

7-6(3) 1-6 6-2#185Mona Barthel

6-3 6-4#226Nuria Brancaccio

7-6(5) ret.#86Kaitlin Quevedo

Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva

10W 5L

6-4 6-4#199Luisina Giovannini

7-5 1-6 6-3#193Despina Papamichail

7-6(4) 6-3#475Ruth Roura Llaverias

6-3 6-3—Marina Quesada Oyonarte

6-0 6-2—Valentina Carreras Medina

6-2 6-1#86Kaitlin Quevedo

5-7 6-4 7-5#576Astra Sharma

6-3 7-6(2)#328Cadence Brace

6-3 6-4#831Victoria Luiza Barros

6-4 6-2—Jennifer Dourado Zimermman

6-3 6-4#543Sofia Elena Cabezas Dominguez

6-3 6-1#140Julia Riera

7-5 6-3#312Carolina Meligeni Alves

6-0 4-6 6-2#747Marjorie Souza

7-5 6-1#40Daria Snigur

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FJFrancesca JonesJones

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da SilvaSilvaNS

Francesca Jones carries the stronger recent form — Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1562.2%+6.4pp55.8%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1564.8%+1.4pp66.2%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1548.1%+7.1pp41.0%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/152.0+0.42.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/154.31.3 fewer5.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1545.3%—45.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1544.1%+7.6pp51.7%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1557.1%+6.2pp50.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.9%+1.3pp50.6%

Serve · 3–2

62.2%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+6.4pp55.8%

64.8%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.4pp66.2%

48.1%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+7.1pp41.0%

2.0Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+0.42.4

4.3Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.3 fewer5.6

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

45.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—45.9%

Pressure · 1–1

44.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+7.6pp51.7%

57.1%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+6.2pp50.9%

Points · 1–0

51.9%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.3pp50.6%

Francesca Jones

Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Francesca Jones

Francesca Jones

Francesca Jones 2-0

Result0 of 0 landed

Games1 of 1 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Francesca Jones

Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva

Stat Battle