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Predictions graded

Diletta Cherubini #379Italy0Bianca Vanessa Andreescu #132Canada2

Sets 2-6 · 3-6Fri 30 Oct 2026, 00:05 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions8–280%

Edges5–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBianca Vanessa Andreescu · 247 places

Diletta Cherubini

Italy

Cherubini, 24, is ranked No. 378. Her singles career high is No. 342.

Current ranking: #379
Peak ranking: #342
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: —
Height: —

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

Canada

Former world No. 4, Andreescu’s WTA profile records her May 2024 return after a nine-month back-injury absence. That is career background only; the specified current-event search did not verify an active Cincinnati fitness restriction.

Current ranking: #132
Peak ranking: #4 · 2019
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 22:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Andreescu is the clear favourite, but her clay evidence is one match against a player ranked 893, and Cherubini has won just one of six clay first sets.

Andreescu should still come through, most likely in straight sets. At 1.01 to win, 1.03 for the first set, 1.03 for the second set, 1.08 for a 2-0 win and 1.07 for under 2.5 sets, none of the quoted prices is worth backing.

Context

The 10-5 record and 58.2% games-won rate describe a player taking 53.3% of all points across 15 matches. That body of work is mostly indoor hard-court tennis from mid-October, with only one clay match inside it. The baseline is solid for form, but it barely covers the surface this second round is played on.
- Last 15 tracked matches: 10 wins, 5 losses
- Games won: 167 of 287 (58.2%) across 15 matches
- First-serve points won: 405 of 614 (66.0%) across 15 matches
- Total points won: 1036 of 1943 (53.3%)
First sets have been the weakest part of her clay record, with 9.8 total games on average in the opener. She has been steadier in second sets at 3-3, which is why two of those six matches still went the distance. Starting behind against a higher-ranked opponent leaves little room to recover.
- Six clay matches, 4 September to 27 October 2026
- Set 1: 1 win, 5 losses; 4.0 games won vs 5.8 lost on average
- Set 1 total games average: 9.8
- Set 2 record: 3-3, 3.5 games won vs 4.5 lost
Her clay matches average 20.7 total games and 2.3 sets, with scorelines of 0-2 three times and 2-1 twice. Clean set margins rather than shootouts have been the pattern. Andreescu's single clay set also closed without a tiebreak, though one match is thin support for that side.
- Six clay matches, 4 September to 27 October 2026, one retirement excluded; no tiebreaks
- Set 1 average 9.8 total games; set 2 average 8.0
- Total games average 20.7; sets average 2.3
- Scorelines: 2-0 once, 0-2 three times, 2-1 twice

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

1.01fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 99%

−25.0ppshort

Andreescu is the higher-ranked player in clearly better recent form and opened her clay week with a straightforward straight-sets win.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

1.03fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 97.1%

−27.1ppshort

Cherubini has started poorly on clay, and Andreescu began her tournament with an early break-and-hold advantage.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

1.03fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 97.1%

−29.1ppshort

Andreescu's heavier ball should tell as the match settles, and Cherubini's second-set scoring has been modest.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.07fair 1.69

BetBugs 59% · Market 93.5%

−34.5ppshort

Straight-sets finishes have been the dominant pattern for both players on this surface.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu 2-0

1.08fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 92.6%

−40.6ppshort

Straight-sets wins match Andreescu's recent pattern and Cherubini's habit of dropping the opening set on clay.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.01
The read
Andreescu is the higher-ranked player in clearly better recent form and opened her clay week with a straightforward straight-sets win.
- Ranked 132 against 379
- 10-5 in the last 15, including wins over players ranked 91, 107 and 112
- Beat Katherine Hui 6-3 6-2 in her only clay match this week
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBianca Vanessa AndreescuEstimated chance74%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cherubini's clay matches have generally run beyond 18 games, and her competitiveness in second sets should add length.
- Cherubini's clay matches average 20.7 total games
- Andreescu's clay match total was 17 games
- Cherubini's clay set totals average 9.8 and 8.0
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 18.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent clay second sets have finished short of ten games.
- Cherubini's clay second sets average 8 games
- Andreescu's clay second set totalled 8 games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A margin of six games or more fits Andreescu's recent scoring rate and her 12-5 clay win.
- Andreescu has won 58.2 percent of games in her last 15 matches
- Her clay win was 12-5 in games (margin 7)
- Cherubini's clay matches average 20.7 games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonBianca Vanessa Andreescu -5.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cherubini's clay first sets sit right at the line, so a long opener is as likely as not.
- Cherubini's clay first sets average 9.8 total games
- Andreescu's clay first set totalled 9 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.03
The read
Cherubini has started poorly on clay, and Andreescu began her tournament with an early break-and-hold advantage.
- Cherubini has lost 5 of 6 first sets on clay
- Cherubini averages 4 games won in first sets on clay
- Andreescu took her only clay first set 6-3
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBianca Vanessa AndreescuEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.03
The read
Andreescu's heavier ball should tell as the match settles, and Cherubini's second-set scoring has been modest.
- Cherubini is 3-3 in second sets on clay
- Andreescu won her clay second set 6-2
- Cherubini averages 3.5 games won in second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonBianca Vanessa AndreescuEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.07
The read
Straight-sets finishes have been the dominant pattern for both players on this surface.
- Cherubini's clay matches average 2.33 sets
- Three of her six clay matches finished 2-0
- Andreescu has won her last several matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.08
The read
Straight-sets wins match Andreescu's recent pattern and Cherubini's habit of dropping the opening set on clay.
- Cherubini has lost 2-0 in three of six clay matches
- Andreescu won her clay match 6-3 6-2
- Cherubini has won just one first set in six clay matches
BetBugs · Set BettingwonBianca Vanessa Andreescu 2-0Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player has produced a tiebreak on clay in the available sample.
- Cherubini has had no tiebreaks in six clay matches
- Andreescu had none in her clay match
- Her clay sets average 9.8 and 8 games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance75%

Previous match context available

Diletta Cherubini

7W 8L

6-4 6-2#355Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez

6-0 6-1#775Connie Ma

6-2 6-2#726Amelie Justine Hejtmanek

6-4 4-6 6-1#822Christasha McNeil

6-2 6-4#588Emma Kamper Malmkjaer

4-6 6-3 7-6(6)#482Thea Frodin

6-1 6-3—Natalie Kha

6-4 1-1 ret.—Maria Aytoyan

2-6 6-4 6-1#721Georgina Garcia-Perez

6-1 3-6 6-3#526Isis Louise Van Den Broek

6-4 6-0#361Aran Teixido Garcia

4-6 6-4 6-4#430Isabella Shinikova

6-1 6-0#665Matilde Paoletti

5-7 6-3 6-1#608Neus Torner Sensano

6-4 6-3#100Fiona Ferro

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#893Katherine Hui

7-6(2) 6-2#112Dominika Salkova

6-3 6-1#184Lucie Havlickova

6-2 7-5#107Lucrezia Stefanini

7-5 3-6 7-5#91Antonia Ruzic

6-2 6-2#185Mia Ristic

6-3 6-4#72Anna Blinkova

6-4 6-3#339Mariam Bolkvadze

6-0 6-0#469Alana Smith

6-4 6-3#38Cristina Bucsa

2-6 6-3 6-4#141Tamara Zidansek

6-0 6-3#124Veronika Podrez

6-1 6-2#179Eva Vedder

6-0 6-4#81Xiyu Wang

7-5 6-4#29Nikola Bartunkova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DCDiletta CherubiniCherubini

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Bianca Vanessa AndreescuAndreescuBA

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu carries the stronger recent form — Diletta Cherubini's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In66.1%+5.2pp60.9%

1st Serve Won56.5%+9.5pp66.0%

2nd Serve Won46.3%+0.8pp47.1%

Aces / Match0.3+3.03.3

Double Faults / Match2.8—2.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won45.9%+1.7pp47.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted50.4%+1.2pp49.2%

Break Pts Saved45.6%+17.0pp62.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.4%+3.9pp53.3%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

66.1%1st Serve In+5.2pp60.9%

56.5%1st Serve Won+9.5pp66.0%

46.3%2nd Serve Won+0.8pp47.1%

0.3Aces / Match+3.03.3

2.8Double Faults / Match—2.7

Return · 0–1

45.9%Return Pts Won+1.7pp47.6%

Pressure · 1–1

50.4%Break Pts Converted+1.2pp49.2%

45.6%Break Pts Saved+17.0pp62.6%

Points · 0–1

49.4%Total Pts Won+3.9pp53.3%