BrazilWTA CuritibaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Francesca Jones #99United Kingdom2Marjorie Souza #747Brazil0

Sets 6-4 · 6-3Thu 29 Oct 2026, 16:45 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions8–189%

Edges5–183%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrancesca Jones · 648 places

Francesca Jones

United Kingdom

British player who reached the 2026 US Open qualifying draw as its third seed after consecutive WTA 125 titles in Rome and Palermo.

Current ranking: #99
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Marjorie Souza

Brazil

The structured profile lists Souza at No. 747 with hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #747
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 03:52 · Europe/Bucharest

A 648-place ranking gap on clay, but small samples on both sides: Jones beat Urrutia in straight sets four days after Souza lost to her.

Jones should win, most likely in two sets, though 1.01 for the match and 1.10 for a 2-0 win leave nothing. The two prices the records support are over 18.5 games at 3 and over 2.5 sets at 6.

Context

Both results come from the same Curitiba clay swing inside four days, so the comparison is drawn from similar conditions. Jones took 13 games to Urrutia's 6 in her match; Souza managed 7 games to Urrutia's 12. One match each is thin evidence, and Souza's 6-1, 7-5 win over Berta Bonardi on 27 October shows she is not arriving short of form.
- Jones beat Maria Florencia Urrutia 7-5, 6-1 on 27 October 2026 on clay (one match).
- Jones won 13 games to 6 in that match.
Her clay matches have averaged 2.22 sets and 21.1 total games, so they tend to run past 18 games without always reaching a decider. The straight-set share makes two sets the likeliest single scoreline. It does not make it a near-certainty, since the same nine-match sample includes a three-setter and two straight-set defeats.
- Nine completed clay matches (31 July-27 October 2026): five 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win, one 1-2 loss, two 0-2 losses.
- Average 2.22 sets and 21.1 total games across the same nine matches.
These sets have mostly been settled by a break or two rather than a shootout: Jones's first sets average 9.9 total games and her second sets 9.1, with one tiebreak across nine matches. Souza's six clay matches contain no tiebreak at all, and her first sets average 7.8 games. Fifteen matches is a small base, and one long opening set would change the picture quickly.
- Jones: one tiebreak in nine completed clay matches (31 July-27 October 2026).
- Set-1 total games average 9.9; set-2 total games average 9.1 across those nine matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Francesca Jones

1.01fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 99%

−21.0ppshort

Jones has faced stronger opposition and recently handled a common opponent that beat Souza.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Francesca Jones

1.03fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 97.1%

−27.1ppshort

Jones's second-set record on clay is strong, and she is the higher-ranked player.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Francesca Jones

1.03fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 97.1%

−33.1ppshort

Jones is the stronger player and starts as the more likely first-set winner.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Lean

Francesca Jones 2-0

1.10fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 90.9%

−28.9ppshort

Jones's clay wins have usually been in straight sets, and she is the stronger player.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.01
The read
Jones has faced stronger opposition and recently handled a common opponent that beat Souza.
- Jones is ranked 99; Souza is 747.
- Jones beat Maria Florencia Urrutia 2-0 on 27 Oct; Souza lost to Urrutia 0-2 on 23 Oct.
- Jones is 6-3 on clay in nine matches; Souza is 4-2 in six.
- Jones has five 2-0 wins in nine clay matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFrancesca JonesEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Both players' clay matches have generally lasted more than 18.5 games.
- Jones's clay matches average 21.1 total games.
- Souza's clay matches average 19.5 total games.
- Jones's last three completed wins all had at least 19 games.
- Souza's latest win had 19 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 18.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Souza has usually stayed within five games of opponents on clay, and Jones has had some heavy losses.
- Souza has three 2-0 wins and only one 0-2 loss in six clay matches.
- Jones's 2-0 wins include a five-game margin over Francisca Jorge.
- Jones lost 0-2 twice in nine clay matches.
- Souza lost by five games to Urrutia.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMarjorie Souza +5.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Souza's first sets have usually been decided by 6-3 or shorter.
- Souza's clay first sets average 7.8 total games.
- Jones has won five of nine first sets but lost four.
- Souza has no first-set tiebreaks in six clay matches.
- Jones has one first-set tiebreak in nine clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined clay records point to straight sets being the more common outcome.
- Jones's clay matches average 2.22 sets.
- Souza's clay matches average 2.33 sets.
- Seven of Jones's nine clay matches were straight sets.
- Four of Souza's six clay matches were straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.03
The read
Jones's second-set record on clay is strong, and she is the higher-ranked player.
- Jones has won the second set in seven of nine clay matches.
- Souza has won the second set in four of six clay matches.
- Jones's clay second sets average 5.7 games won to 3.4 lost.
- Jones is ranked 99; Souza is 747.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonFrancesca JonesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.03
The read
Jones is the stronger player and starts as the more likely first-set winner.
- Jones has won the first set in five of nine clay matches.
- Souza has won the first set in four of six clay matches.
- Jones beat Urrutia 7-5 in the first set in her latest match.
- Jones is ranked 99; Souza is 747.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFrancesca JonesEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Jones's clay wins have usually been in straight sets, and she is the stronger player.
- Jones has five 2-0 wins in nine clay matches.
- Jones's clay matches average 2.22 sets.
- Jones beat Urrutia 2-0 in her latest match.
- Souza has one 0-2 loss in six clay matches.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonFrancesca Jones 2-0Estimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in both players' recent clay matches.
- Only one of the combined 15 clay matches had a tiebreak.
- Jones has one tiebreak in nine clay matches.
- Souza has no tiebreaks in six clay matches.
- Both players' clay matches average under 2.4 sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance82%

Previous match context available

Francesca Jones

10W 5L

7-5 6-1#454Maria Florencia Urrutia

6-2 6-4#152Dalma Galfi

6-3 6-4#218Francisca Jorge

7-5 6-1#420Martina Colmegna

6-0 6-4#185Mona Barthel

5-7 6-3 6-3#645Alja Senica

7-6(5) 5-7 6-4#197Rositsa Dencheva

6-4 6-3#390Raluca Georgiana Serban

6-4 6-4#12Iva Jovic

6-4 1-6 6-3#77Magda Linette

6-4 6-1#160Joanna Garland

7-6(3) 1-6 6-2#185Mona Barthel

6-3 6-4#226Nuria Brancaccio

7-6(5) ret.#86Kaitlin Quevedo

6-1 6-2#415Alice Rame

Marjorie Souza

10W 5L

6-1 7-5#638Berta Bonardi

6-3 6-4#454Maria Florencia Urrutia

6-3 0-5 ret.#1184Sabrina Dos Reis

6-0 6-0—Sophia Santos

6-2 3-6 6-0#347Ana Sofia Sanchez

6-4 3-6 6-4—Maria Jose Sanchez Uribe

6-1 6-2—Sophia Santos

6-3 6-2#258Carolyn Ansari

7-6(1) 6-4#477Luiza Fullana

6-2 4-6 6-1—Nathalia Pontes Tourinho

6-1 6-2—Camila Markus

6-0 6-4#420Lan Mi

1-6 6-4 7-5#831Victoria Luiza Barros

6-0 6-4—Maria Fernanda Lopes

6-0 6-1—Juliana Rodriguez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FJFrancesca JonesJones

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Marjorie SouzaSouzaMS

Francesca Jones carries the stronger recent form — Marjorie Souza's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In61.8%+1.8pp63.6%

1st Serve Won65.0%+3.5pp61.5%

2nd Serve Won49.0%+4.5pp44.5%

Aces / Match1.7+1.00.7

Double Faults / Match3.90.5 fewer4.4

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won45.6%+2.7pp48.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.7%+2.8pp46.5%

Break Pts Saved59.2%+4.2pp55.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.3%—51.8%

Serve · 4–1

61.8%1st Serve In+1.8pp63.6%

65.0%1st Serve Won+3.5pp61.5%

49.0%2nd Serve Won+4.5pp44.5%

1.7Aces / Match+1.00.7

3.9Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer4.4

Return · 0–1

45.6%Return Pts Won+2.7pp48.3%

Pressure · 1–1

43.7%Break Pts Converted+2.8pp46.5%

59.2%Break Pts Saved+4.2pp55.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.3%Total Pts Won—51.8%

Francesca Jones

Marjorie Souza

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 18.5

Over 2.5

Francesca Jones

Francesca Jones

Francesca Jones

Francesca Jones 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Francesca Jones

Marjorie Souza

Stat Battle