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Flavio Cobolli #6Italy0Matteo Berrettini #43Italy0

Sets 2-5Thu 29 Oct 2026, 19:35 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFlavio Cobolli · 37 places

Flavio Cobolli

Italy

Cobolli, 24, names clay as his favourite surface. He first entered the Top 10 in June 2026 after reaching his first Grand Slam final.

Current ranking: #6
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Matteo Berrettini

Italy

Former world No. 6 Berrettini is a Wimbledon finalist. On 7 July 2026, he withdrew from Gstaad and Kitzbühel after being diagnosed with chronic hip pain, with the stated aim of preparing for the US hard-court swing.

Current ranking: #43
Peak ranking: #6 · 2022
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 03:44 · Europe/Bucharest

A second-round all-Italian derby in Vienna: the No. 6 seed against a No. 43 who opened with 12 aces.

Cobolli's hard-court record and Berrettini's 1-8 first-set run point to the higher-ranked man, though Berrettini's second-set form keeps it live. Cobolli at 1.95, Cobolli 2-1 at 4.25, a third set at 2.20, over 25.5 games at 2.00 and Cobolli for the first set at 1.85 all hold up.

Context

The 136-minute opener gives Cobolli a longer first-match workload before the derby, while Berrettini’s opener ended in two sets. That makes the turnaround part of this specific fixture’s context. It describes the event route and workload, rather than a confirmed availability issue.
- Cobolli won his Vienna opener over Dimitrov in three sets and 136 minutes.
- Cobolli entered the event as the fourth seed, with Berrettini in his projected round-of-16 section.
ReportedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 03:42 · Europe/BucharestCobolli beats Dimitrov to set up all-Italian derby with Berrettiniwww.gazzetta.it · 28 Oct 2026Cobolli seeded fourth in Vienna, drawn against wild card Dimitrovwww.oasport.it · 25 Oct 2026
Berrettini landed 12 aces and won 38 of 46 first-serve points against Etcheverry. It supplies a current-week reference point for the serve component of this indoor hard-court match. It is a single opponent-specific performance and does not establish how he will serve against Cobolli.
- Berrettini began his Vienna campaign with a 6-3, 6-4 win over Etcheverry.
- He recorded 12 aces and won 38 of 46 first-serve points in that match.
ReportedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 03:42 · Europe/BucharestBerrettini opens Vienna campaign with straight-sets win over Etcheverrywww.ubitennis.com · 26 Oct 2026
Berrettini is ranked No. 43 and has nine completed hard-court best-of-3 matches in the sample, with one retired match excluded.
He has averaged 4.6 games won against 6.1 games lost in opening sets, and four of those nine matches brought a first-set tiebreak, so the deficit is not simply a run of lopsided sets. The second-set split shows he stays in matches, taking six of nine. The pattern makes the opening set the least secure part of his day, while the later sets remain competitive.
- Set 1: 1 win, 8 losses across nine completed hard-court best-of-3 matches (3 August – 26 October 2026).
- Set 2: 6 wins, 3 losses across the same nine matches.
- First-set games: 4.6 won against 6.1 lost on average; four first-set tiebreaks in the sample.
The 11-match sample runs from 15 August to 27 October 2026 and contains no retirements.
The scorelines are 6× 2-1, 2× 1-2, 1× 2-0 and 2× 0-2, so close finishes have been the norm rather than the exception. Only one of those 11 matches contained a tiebreak, which matters in a match where the opponent's set sample shows seven tiebreaks in nine. Cobolli's own second-set record of 5-6 is the reason the extra set reads as a tendency rather than a certainty.
- 11 completed hard-court best-of-3 matches, 15 August – 27 October 2026.
- Scorelines: 6× 2-1, 2× 1-2, 1× 2-0, 2× 0-2.
- Averages of 2.73 sets and 26.1 games per match; one match with a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Cobolli has the higher ranking and the better current hard-court record, while Berrettini's recent form is mixed.
- Cobolli is ranked 6; Berrettini is ranked 43.
- Cobolli is 9-6 on the current hard-court sample; Berrettini is 5-6.
- Cobolli has won 71.5% of first-serve points across 15 matches.
BetBugs · Match Winnernot gradableFlavio CobolliEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Both players' hard-court matches average above the 25.5-game line.
- Cobolli's hard best-of-3 matches average 26.1 total games.
- Berrettini's average 26.4 total games.
- Berrettini has seven matches with a tiebreak in nine.
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableOver 25.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Berrettini has started poorly on hard, while Cobolli has been close to even in first sets.
- Berrettini is 1-8 in first sets on hard best-of-3 matches.
- Cobolli is 5-6 in first sets on hard best-of-3 matches.
- Berrettini's first-set games lost average is 6.1.
BetBugs · Set 1 Winnernot gradableFlavio CobolliEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both players have played a majority of recent hard-court matches over three sets.
- Cobolli's hard best-of-3 matches average 2.73 sets; six of 11 were 2-1 wins.
- Berrettini's hard best-of-3 matches average 2.56 sets; five of nine went to a third set.
- Combined scorelines include 13 three-set matches in 20.
BetBugs · Total Setsnot gradableOver 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Berrettini has been clearly stronger in second sets on this surface.
- Berrettini is 6-3 in second sets on hard best-of-3 matches.
- Cobolli is 5-6 in second sets on hard best-of-3 matches.
- Berrettini's second-set games won average is 5.6.
BetBugs · Set 2 Winnernot gradableMatteo BerrettiniEstimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Berrettini's hard-court matches frequently reach tiebreaks, even though Cobolli's do not.
- Berrettini has had a tiebreak in seven of nine hard best-of-3 matches.
- Cobolli has had one tiebreak in 11 hard best-of-3 matches.
- Berrettini has four first-set tiebreaks in nine hard best-of-3 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in Matchnot gradableYesEstimated chance58%

Prediction history

Flavio Cobolli: 10/15 recent winner projections matched

10 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Flavio Cobolli matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Flavio Cobolli15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

15 Jul·ATP Umag

#9Flavio Cobolli0-2#67Roman Andres Burruchaga

BetBugsFlavio Cobolli to win·78%

Missed

15 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#9Flavio Cobolli0-2#67Roman Andres Burruchaga

Flavio Cobolli to win

78%probability

Roman Andres Burruchaga won

Missed

8 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#10Flavio Cobolli0-3#114Arthur Fery

BetBugsFlavio Cobolli to win·65%

Missed

8 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#10Flavio Cobolli0-3#114Arthur Fery

Flavio Cobolli to win

65%probability

Arthur Fery won

Missed

4 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#22Karen Khachanov2-3#10Flavio Cobolli

BetBugsFlavio Cobolli to win·58%

Matched

4 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#22Karen Khachanov2-3#10Flavio Cobolli

Flavio Cobolli to win

58%probability

Flavio Cobolli won

Matched

2 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#79James Duckworth1-3#10Flavio Cobolli

BetBugsFlavio Cobolli to win·65%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#79James Duckworth1-3#10Flavio Cobolli

Flavio Cobolli to win

65%probability

Flavio Cobolli won

Matched

1 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#38Mariano Navone1-2#10Flavio Cobolli

BetBugsFlavio Cobolli to win·78%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#38Mariano Navone1-2#10Flavio Cobolli

Flavio Cobolli to win

78%probability

Flavio Cobolli won

Matched

Previous match context available

Flavio Cobolli

9W 6L

6-4 3-6 6-3#123Grigor Dimitrov

4-6 6-2 7-5#26Lorenzo Musetti

4-6 6-4 6-4#17Brandon Nakashima

6-2 6-4#140Stan Wawrinka

6-1 4-6 6-3#79Adrian Mannarino

6-3 6-2#70Roman Safiullin

6-3 2-6 10-7#18Learner Tien

6-7(4) 6-3 6-0 6-3#27Alexander Blockx

3-6 6-3 6-4 7-5#169Tristan Schoolkate

3-6 2-6 6-3 6-4 6-4#130Francisco Comesana

6-3 6-4#10Arthur Fils

2-6 6-3 6-4#15Tommy Paul

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#11Rafael Jodar

7-5 4-6 7-5#27Alexander Blockx

6-1 4-6 6-3#57Miomir Kecmanovic

Matteo Berrettini

7W 8L

6-3 6-4#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry

7-6(4) 7-5#85Kyrian Jacquet

7-6(4) 7-5#17Brandon Nakashima

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#82Aleksandar Kovacevic

7-6(6) 6-1#54Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

1-6 7-6(1) 6-4#13Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

3-6 6-3 6-4 7-6(4)#45Mariano Navone

7-6(4) 7-6(3) 6-0#140Stan Wawrinka

6-4 6-7(3) 6-3#20Jiri Lehecka

3-6 6-1 6-4#69Titouan Droguet

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#45Mariano Navone

6-3 6-4 3-6 5-7 6-3#123Grigor Dimitrov

6-4 7-5 3-6 6-3#10Arthur Fils

6-7(7) 7-6(16) 7-6(7) 7-6(5)#140Stan Wawrinka

7-5 5-2 ret.#36Matteo Arnaldi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FCFlavio CobolliCobolli

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Matteo BerrettiniBerrettiniMB

Matteo Berrettini carries the stronger recent form — Flavio Cobolli's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In57.2%+8.4pp65.6%

1st Serve Won71.5%+6.2pp77.7%

2nd Serve Won51.3%+1.5pp52.8%

Aces / Match6.1+7.213.3

Double Faults / Match3.00.4 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won36.9%+5.0pp31.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted34.2%+0.9pp33.3%

Break Pts Saved61.0%+6.4pp67.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.7%—50.3%

Serve · 0–5

57.2%1st Serve In+8.4pp65.6%

71.5%1st Serve Won+6.2pp77.7%

51.3%2nd Serve Won+1.5pp52.8%

6.1Aces / Match+7.213.3

3.0Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

36.9%Return Pts Won+5.0pp31.9%

Pressure · 1–1

34.2%Break Pts Converted+0.9pp33.3%

61.0%Break Pts Saved+6.4pp67.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.7%Total Pts Won—50.3%

Flavio Cobolli

Matteo Berrettini

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Flavio Cobolli

Over 2.5

Flavio Cobolli

Over 25.5

Matteo Berrettini

Flavio Cobolli 2-1

Result0 of 0 landed

Games0 of 0 landed

Sets0 of 0 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Flavio Cobolli

Matteo Berrettini

Stat Battle