Camilo Ugo Carabelli #75Argentina00 – 0Juan Alejandro Hernandez #507Mexico0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The ranking gap and Carabelli's higher level outweigh Hernandez's better clay win count, which came mostly against lower-ranked players.

• Camilo Ugo Carabelli is ranked 75; Juan Alejandro Hernandez is ranked 507.
• On clay in this sample, Carabelli is 3-2 and Hernandez is 8-4, but Hernandez's wins include opponents ranked 345, 495 and 705.
• Carabelli's clay set record is 1-4 in first sets and 5-0 in second sets.
• Carabelli's latest clay match was a 2-0 win over Federico Coria by 13-7 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Hernandez's shorter clay matches and six straight-set wins pull the total below the line more often than not.

• Hernandez's clay matches average 22.8 total games.
• Carabelli's clay matches average 27.6 total games.
• Hernandez has six 2-0 wins in 12 clay matches.
• Carabelli's clay matches average 2.8 sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' clay first sets average just above nine and a half games, so a 10-game set is slightly more likely.

• Carabelli's clay first sets average 9.6 total games.
• Hernandez's clay first sets average 9.7 total games.
• Carabelli's first sets include one tiebreak in five matches.
• Hernandez's first sets include one tiebreak in 12 matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Carabelli's longer second sets lift the combined average slightly above the line.

• Carabelli's clay second sets average 10.0 total games.
• Hernandez's clay second sets average 9.0 total games.
• Carabelli has won all five second sets on clay, averaging 6.4-3.6 games.
• Hernandez has won 8 of 12 second sets, averaging 5.0-4.0 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Carabelli's perfect second-set record on clay points to a response if he starts slowly.

• Carabelli has won all 5 second sets on clay in this sample.
• Hernandez has won 8 of 12 second sets on clay.
• Carabelli averages 6.4 games won and 3.6 lost in second sets on clay.
• Hernandez averages 5.0 games won and 4.0 lost in second sets on clay.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Hernandez has won nine of twelve clay first sets while Carabelli has won one of five.

• Hernandez has won 9 of 12 first sets on clay; Carabelli has won 1 of 5.
• Hernandez averages 5.3 games won and 4.3 lost in first sets on clay.
• Carabelli averages 3.6 games won and 6.0 lost in first sets on clay.
• Carabelli is ranked 75 and Hernandez is 507.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Carabelli's clay matches often go the distance, while Hernandez has more straight-set wins, leaving the three-set chance close to even.

• Carabelli's clay matches average 2.8 sets; four of five went to a deciding set.
• Hernandez's clay matches average 2.42 sets; five of 12 went to a deciding set.
• Carabelli's clay scorelines include two 2-1 wins and two 1-2 losses.
• Hernandez's clay scorelines include six 2-0 wins.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Only two tiebreaks appear across the two clay samples, so most matches finish without one.

• Carabelli has one tiebreak in five clay matches.
• Hernandez has one tiebreak in 12 clay matches.
• Carabelli's clay first sets average 9.6 games.
• Hernandez's clay first sets average 9.7 games.