ItalyWTA CourmayeurFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Robin Montgomery #155United States0Lisa Pigato #108Italy2

Sets 0-6 · 6-7Wed 28 Oct 2026, 11:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions7–370%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLisa Pigato · 47 places

Robin Montgomery

United States

Montgomery reached a reported career-high No. 95 in June 2025 before a wrist injury sidelined her until April 2026. She won her first WTA title at the Libéma Open in June 2026 after returning.

Current ranking: #155
Peak ranking: #95 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Left handed
Height: 178 cm

Lisa Pigato

Italy

Pigato is a right-handed Italian player, born in June 2003. Available public profile material did not provide a reliable declared preferred surface or current fitness update.

Current ranking: #108
Peak ranking: #128 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 03:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Pigato is ranked 108 to Montgomery's 155 and has won 10 of 12 hard-court matches, yet her latest completed match was a 1-12 game loss.

She still looks the likelier winner. The 3.0 match price, the 2.6 for the first set and the 2.4 with a 2.5-game start all offer value; under 2.5 sets at 1.4 asks too much.

Context

That first-set split is the sharpest figure in either player's recent record, and it comes with a low-scoring profile: no set-one tiebreaks in any of those 12 matches, with set-one totals averaging 8.7 games and set two 8.3. The sample is modest and excludes two retirements, so it reads as a lean rather than a settled trait.
- 12 completed hard-court matches, 24 August to 14 October 2026: set-one record 9-3, average 4.9 games won to 3.75 lost, no set-one tiebreaks.
- Set-two record 7-5 in the same sample, average 4.5 games won to 3.75 lost.
- Two retirements excluded from the 12-match sample.
It is the most recent completed result in her file and the heaviest defeat in either player's recent rows, arriving two days after a 6-4 6-4 win over Julia Avdeeva. One match does not erase a 10-2 hard-court record built since late August, but it is the clearest reason to treat that run cautiously as current form. No fitness or withdrawal information has been supplied.
- 14 October 2026: lost 0-6 1-6 to Lucie Havlickova (ranked 181) on indoor hard, 1-12 in games.
- 12 October 2026: beat Julia Avdeeva (ranked 202) 6-4 6-4 on indoor hard.
Her sets tend to turn on a single break rather than a shootout: set-one games have averaged 9.5 in total and set two 9.3, with her set-one record level at 5-5. Pigato played no tiebreaks at all in 12 hard-court matches, so the evidence points to scorelines settled by service holds. Ten matches is a small base for a firm conclusion.
- 10 completed hard-court matches, 11 August to 1 October 2026: one tiebreak, 21.3 total games and 2.3 total sets per match.
- Set one averaged 9.5 total games with a 5-5 record; set two averaged 9.3 total games with a 6-4 record.
It is the highest-ranked opponent on her recent card and shows she can front-run against a stronger server for a set. She still lost the match in three, and her most recent completed outing, on 1 October, was a 5-7 5-7 defeat to Katie Volynets. The result is a data point, not a form trend.
- 1 September 2026: lost to Maria Sakkari (ranked 31) 6-2 5-7 2-6 on hard.
- 1 October 2026: lost to Katie Volynets (ranked 73) 5-7 5-7 on hard.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Pigato's stronger ranking and set-start record point to a narrow win, though the heavy latest loss adds uncertainty.
- Ranked 108 vs Montgomery 155.
- 11-2 in the last 15 and 10-2 on hard in this sample.
- Set1 record 9-3; six of 12 hard-court scorelines are 2-0 wins.
- Latest completed match was a 1-12 game loss to Havlickova.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLisa PigatoEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Pigato's wins are often by four or more games, and even a narrow loss clears this line.
- Pigato cleared +2.5 games in five of six completed recent rows on hard or indoor hard.
- Her recent game margins were -11, +4, +4, +4, +6 and +10.
- Montgomery won by more than 2.5 games in three of six completed hard rows.
- Pigato is ranked 108 vs Montgomery 155.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonLisa Pigato +2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pigato's second sets are shorter on average, keeping the total below 9.5.
- Pigato's set2 total-game average is 8.3; Montgomery's is 9.3.
- Neither player has a set2 tiebreak in the setEvidence sample.
- Pigato's set2 games lost average is 3.75.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pigato's short first sets make under 9.5 the slightly stronger side despite Montgomery's 9.5 average.
- Pigato's set1 total-game average is 8.7; Montgomery's is 9.5.
- Pigato has no set1 tiebreaks in 12 hard matches.
- Pigato's set1 games lost average is only 3.75.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined averages sit just above the 20.5-game mark, and Montgomery's closer matches pull the total upward.
- Montgomery's hard-court matches average 21.3 total games; Pigato's average 20.0.
- Recent Montgomery matches averaged 21.8 games across six completed rows.
- Recent Pigato matches averaged 19.5 games across six completed rows.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Both players finish a clear majority of hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Straight-set matches: 7 of Montgomery's 10 and 8 of Pigato's 12 hard-court matches.
- Pigato has six 2-0 wins in 12; Montgomery has four in 10.
- Combined set average is about 2.3 per match for both players.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Pigato's set1 record is the strongest single set signal in the evidence.
- Pigato has won set1 in 9 of 12 hard-court matches; Montgomery in 5 of 10.
- Pigato's set1 average is 4.9 games won to 3.75 lost.
- Pigato has no tiebreaks in 12 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLisa PigatoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pigato's second-set record is slightly positive and she has come through four three-set wins.
- Pigato has won set2 in 7 of 12 hard-court matches; Montgomery in 6 of 10.
- Pigato's set2 average is 4.5 games won to 3.75 lost.
- Pigato's scorelines show four 2-1 wins, often needing a response.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonLisa PigatoEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined sample strongly favors no tiebreak in the match.
- 21 of 22 combined hard-court matches in setEvidence had no tiebreak.
- Pigato has zero tiebreaks in 12; Montgomery one in 10.
- Pigato's set1 total-game average is 8.7 and set2 8.3.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance88%

Prediction history

Lisa Pigato: 2/7 recent winner projections matched

2 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Lisa Pigato matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Lisa Pigato7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 Jul·WTA Contrexeville

#133Lisa Pigato0-1#364Aurora Zantedeschi

BetBugsLisa Pigato to win·72%

Missed

9 Jul 2026

WTA Contrexeville

#133Lisa Pigato0-1#364Aurora Zantedeschi

Lisa Pigato to win

72%probability

Aurora Zantedeschi won

Missed

7 Jul·WTA Contrexeville

#212Angela Fita Boluda1-2#133Lisa Pigato

BetBugsLisa Pigato to win·62%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

WTA Contrexeville

#212Angela Fita Boluda1-2#133Lisa Pigato

Lisa Pigato to win

62%probability

Lisa Pigato won

Matched

23 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#152Noma Noha Akugue2-0#134Lisa Pigato

BetBugsLisa Pigato to win·55%

Missed

23 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#152Noma Noha Akugue2-0#134Lisa Pigato

Lisa Pigato to win

55%probability

Noma Noha Akugue won

Missed

8 Jun·WTA Modena

#139Katarzyna Kawa2-0#138Lisa Pigato

BetBugsLisa Pigato to win·58%

Missed

8 Jun 2026

WTA Modena

#139Katarzyna Kawa2-0#138Lisa Pigato

Lisa Pigato to win

58%probability

Katarzyna Kawa won

Missed

1 Jun·WTA Foggia

#224Elizara Yaneva0-2#138Lisa Pigato

BetBugsLisa Pigato to win·65%

Matched

1 Jun 2026

WTA Foggia

#224Elizara Yaneva0-2#138Lisa Pigato

Lisa Pigato to win

65%probability

Lisa Pigato won

Matched

Previous match context available

Robin Montgomery

10W 5L

7-5 7-5#73Katie Volynets

6-3 6-2#251Anna-Lena Friedsam

6-1 6-3#361Aran Teixido Garcia

7-6(4) 6-3#299Sohyun Park

2-6 7-5 6-2#31Maria Sakkari

2-6 6-2 6-2#683Carson Branstine

7-5 6-3#124Jeline Vandromme

6-1 6-1#186Kayla Cross

6-3 6-1#57Lilli Tagger

4-6 7-5 6-3#102Julia Grabher

0-6 6-4 7-5#35Jasmine Paolini

3-6 6-1 6-1#125Marina Bassols Ribera

6-2 6-2#113Elvina Kalieva

6-4 7-6(1)#225Caroline Dolehide

6-4 6-2#131Ajla Tomljanovic

Lisa Pigato

12W 3L

6-0 6-1#181Lucie Havlickova

6-4 6-4#202Julia Avdeeva

1-6 6-0 6-3#179Eva Vedder

4-0 ret.#195Katie Swan

7-5 4-6 6-2#210Polona Hercog

6-4 6-2#441Adrienn Nagy

6-1 6-1#521Jasmijn Gimbrere

6-4 6-2#159Gabriela Andrea Knutson

6-3 7-5#124Jeline Vandromme

6-4 1-6 6-4#139Susan Bandecchi

6-2 2-6 6-4#223Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

6-0 6-1—Sana Garakani

6-3 6-3#254Linda Klimovicova

6-2 5-5 ret.#272Aurora Zantedeschi

6-1 1-6 7-6(7)#222Angela Fita Boluda

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RMRobin MontgomeryMontgomery

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Lisa PigatoPigatoLP

Lisa Pigato carries the stronger recent form — Robin Montgomery's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In59.6%+12.6pp72.2%

1st Serve Won72.8%+11.5pp61.3%

2nd Serve Won45.1%+5.9pp51.0%

Aces / Match5.8+5.30.5

Double Faults / Match4.11.0 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won44.3%+1.9pp46.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted49.2%+2.9pp52.1%

Break Pts Saved67.8%+10.3pp57.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won53.1%—52.4%

Serve · 2–3

59.6%1st Serve In+12.6pp72.2%

72.8%1st Serve Won+11.5pp61.3%

45.1%2nd Serve Won+5.9pp51.0%

5.8Aces / Match+5.30.5

4.1Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

44.3%Return Pts Won+1.9pp46.2%

Pressure · 1–1

49.2%Break Pts Converted+2.9pp52.1%

67.8%Break Pts Saved+10.3pp57.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

53.1%Total Pts Won—52.4%

Robin Montgomery

Lisa Pigato

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Lisa Pigato +2.5

Lisa Pigato

Lisa Pigato

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Robin Montgomery

Lisa Pigato

Stat Battle