ChinaWTA GuangzhouFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Han Shi #177China2Dayana Yastremska #103Ukraine0

Sets 7-5 · 6-4Wed 28 Oct 2026, 11:25 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions7–370%

Edges3–260%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDayana Yastremska · 74 places

Han Shi

China

Chinese right-hander ranked No. 242. Her recent record is built almost entirely on hard courts, with 10 wins in her last 13 hard-court matches tracked. She reached the Ankara Open round of 16 with a 6-1, 6-1 opening win over Alya Naz Altinel.

Current ranking: #177
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Dayana Yastremska

Ukraine

Yastremska reached a career-high No. 21 in January 2020. ITF lists hard courts as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #103
Peak ranking: #21 · 2020
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 15:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Han Shi's second-set strength against Yastremska's better first sets is the hinge of this Guangzhou second-round match.

Han, 9-5 across her last 14 hard-court matches, looks the slightly better side of a close contest, though Yastremska is ranked 74 places higher. Three quotes offer something: Han to win at 2.25, Han to take the second set at 2.2, and Over 22.5 games at 2.0. Under 2.5 sets at 1.5 and Yastremska to win the first set at 1.6 come up short.

Context

Han's split is unusual: she trails after the opening set more often than not, yet wins the second set more often than not.
Han has dropped nine of 14 opening sets on hard but won 10 of 14 second sets in the same window, averaging 5.43 games won to 4.14 games lost in second sets. If Yastremska takes the opener, this record points to Han as the likelier player to extend the match, though 14 matches is a small sample.
- Han Shi: 5 first sets won, 9 lost across 14 hard-court matches (Sept 25 – Oct 26, 2026).
- Han Shi: 10 second sets won, 4 lost in the same 14 matches.
- Second-set games: 5.43 won and 4.14 lost per match.
Her first serve earns points; the second delivery is where the numbers thin out.
She lands 61.3% of first serves and wins 59.1% of those points, but only 43.9% of second-serve points with 5.5 double faults per match over 15 matches. Han has no recorded serve or return metrics, so how much that matters here is unknown. The sample covers 15 matches, not a single tournament.
- Double faults: 5.5 per match (82 in 15 matches).
- Second-serve points won: 43.9% (204 of 465).
- First-serve points won: 59.1% (435 of 736) at 61.3% first serves in.
The Volynets match is a workload marker more than a form guide on its own.
Yastremska's latest win took three sets and 32 games against No. 73 Volynets, and she lost the middle set 1-6 before closing it out in a tiebreak. She actually won fewer games than her opponent, 15 to 17. A single grinding match cannot show fatigue, but it is the most recent measure of how much work her wins are taking her into this second round.
- Oct 27, 2026: beat Katie Volynets (No. 73) 7-5, 1-6, 7-6 on hard.
- Games in that match: 15 won, 17 lost, 32 total.
- The match lasted three sets, with the middle set dropped 1-6.
It is the standout result inside a 9-5 run of hard-court matches for a player ranked No. 177.
Han won 16 games to 12 in that three-set win over a top-20 opponent, showing she can hold the level across a deciding set. Yastremska, at No. 103, sits between Han and Eala in the rankings. Wins over Eala and Korneeva sit in the same 14-match window as straight-set defeats, so the results have swung.
- Oct 12, 2026: beat Alexandra Eala (No. 20) 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 on hard.
- Games in that match: 16 won, 12 lost.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Han has the better recent win rate and a clear second-set record, while Yastremska's serve is undermined by frequent double faults.
- Han Shi is 9-5 in her last 14 hard-court matches, with wins over Eala (No. 20) and Korneeva (No. 80).
- Yastremska is 6-6 on hard in her last 12 and lost to Rakhimova in that span.
- Han Shi has won 10 of 14 second sets, while Yastremska has won 4 of 12.
- Yastremska averages 5.9 double faults per match on hard.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHan ShiEstimated chance53%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Han has been winning games at a better rate recently, and Yastremska can win matches while losing the game count.
- Han Shi's last six completed matches average +1.5 games per match.
- Yastremska's last six completed matches average -1.0 games per match.
- Yastremska's 2-1 wins include a 15-17 game match against Volynets.
- Han Shi's 2-1 win over Eala finished 16-12 in games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHan Shi +2.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches sit right around the 22.5-game line.
- Han Shi's hard-court matches average 22.93 total games.
- Yastremska's hard-court matches average 22.92 total games.
- Han Shi has played five matches with a tiebreak in her last 14.
- Yastremska has played three matches with a tiebreak in her last 12.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Han's first sets often go beyond nine games, while Yastremska's are closer to the line.
- Han Shi's first sets average 10.07 total games.
- Yastremska's first sets average 9.17 total games.
- Han Shi has played four first-set tiebreaks in 14 matches.
- Yastremska has played one first-set tiebreak in 12 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Yastremska's second sets are slightly shorter, and neither player has many second-set tiebreaks.
- Yastremska's second sets average 9.17 total games.
- Han Shi's second sets average 9.57 total games.
- Yastremska has won only four of 12 second sets, often by short margins.
- Han Shi has played one second-set tiebreak in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Han's second-set record is much stronger, while Yastremska has regularly lost the second set.
- Han Shi has won 10 of 14 second sets on hard.
- Yastremska has won 4 of 12 second sets on hard.
- Han Shi's second-set game average is 5.43 won and 4.14 lost.
- Yastremska's second-set game average is 4.00 won and 5.17 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHan ShiEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Yastremska's first-set record is clearly stronger than Han's, who often gives up the opening set.
- Yastremska has won 7 of 12 first sets on hard.
- Han Shi has lost 9 of 14 first sets on hard.
- Yastremska's first-set game difference is even at 4.58 won and 4.58 lost.
- Han Shi has been broken early often enough to average 5.43 games lost in first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDayana YastremskaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Straight-set finishes are the more common outcome in both players' recent hard-court records.
- 9 of Han Shi's 14 hard-court matches and 7 of Yastremska's 12 ended in straight sets.
- Han Shi's scorelines include five 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses.
- Yastremska's scorelines include three 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses.
- Their combined three-set rate is 10 of 26 matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their recent hard-court matches finish without a tiebreak.
- 9 of Han Shi's 14 hard-court matches had no tiebreak.
- 9 of Yastremska's 12 hard-court matches had no tiebreak.
- Han Shi has five tiebreak matches in 14.
- Yastremska has three tiebreak matches in 12.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance66%

Previous match context available

Han Shi

10W 5L

6-4 6-4#175Alevtina Ibragimova

6-3 6-2#17Sorana Cirstea

7-6(4) 6-0#80Alina Korneeva

6-4 0-1 ret.#47Magdalena Frech

6-3 6-4#30Leylah Annie Fernandez

4-6 6-3 6-3#20Alexandra Eala

7-6(2) 6-1#67Kamilla Rakhimova

2-6 7-5 6-4#37Peyton Stearns

6-3 6-3#95Renata Zarazua

6-4 7-6(5)#387Yidi Yang

3-6 6-4 6-4#408Chengyiyi Yuan

7-6(6) 4-6 6-2#22Qinwen Zheng

6-7(5) 7-5 6-3#113Elvina Kalieva

6-0 6-2#761Tereza Mihalikova

6-3 6-4#244Berfu Cengiz

Dayana Yastremska

7W 8L

7-5 1-6 7-6(7)#73Katie Volynets 6-2 6-4#134Emerson Jones

7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(3)#212Xiaodi You

6-2 6-4#67Kamilla Rakhimova

6-4 6-1#12Iva Jovic

6-4 5-7 6-3#38Cristina Bucsa

6-1 6-4#76Sinja Kraus

6-3 6-1#11Maja Chwalinska

6-3 6-4#59Caty McNally

6-3 4-6 6-1#107Lucrezia Stefanini

2-6 6-3 7-6(5)#46Janice Tjen

6-1 6-2#69Tatjana Maria

6-3 6-7(1) 6-2#96Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

7-6(1) 4-6 7-5#300Aoi Ito

6-1 6-2#69Tatjana Maria

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HSHan ShiShi

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Dayana YastremskaYastremskaDY

Han Shi carries the stronger recent form — Dayana Yastremska's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In57.8%+3.5pp61.3%

1st Serve Won67.4%+8.3pp59.1%

2nd Serve Won45.9%+2.0pp43.9%

Aces / Match3.7+0.73.0

Double Faults / Match3.81.7 fewer5.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.3%+1.2pp42.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.3%+1.0pp41.3%

Break Pts Saved54.1%+1.0pp53.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.6%+3.0pp47.6%

Serve · 4–1

57.8%1st Serve In+3.5pp61.3%

67.4%1st Serve Won+8.3pp59.1%

45.9%2nd Serve Won+2.0pp43.9%

3.7Aces / Match+0.73.0

3.8Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer5.5

Return · 1–0

43.3%Return Pts Won+1.2pp42.1%

Pressure · 1–1

40.3%Break Pts Converted+1.0pp41.3%

54.1%Break Pts Saved+1.0pp53.1%

Points · 1–0

50.6%Total Pts Won+3.0pp47.6%