ItalyWTA CourmayeurFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Gabriela Andrea Knutson #159Czechia1Alina Charaeva #97Armenia2

Sets 6-1 · 2-6 · 3-6Wed 28 Oct 2026, 16:25 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions4–640%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlina Charaeva · 62 places

Gabriela Andrea Knutson

Czechia

Knutson reached a career-high No. 155 on 6 November 2023. ITF lists hard as her preferred surface, and WTA records her first WTA 125 singles final in 2025.

Current ranking: #159
Peak ranking: #155 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Alina Charaeva

Armenia

The WTA lists Charaeva at a career-high No. 112 in July 2026. The ITF identifies hard courts as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #97
Peak ranking: #112 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 20:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Knutson sits well below Charaeva in the rankings but has won 11 of 14 hard-court matches since late August, while Charaeva has beaten Rybakina this month and owns the stronger second set.

Knutson's fast starts make her the likelier winner, and the odds give her a fair shot: 2.20 to take the first set and 2.25 to win the match both hold up, the first set more so.

Context

Charaeva's slow starts and stronger finishes have shaped nearly every match in her recent sample.
She has averaged 4.27 games won and 5.07 lost in first sets, then 5.47 won and 4.53 lost in second sets, with three second-set tiebreaks and none in first sets. Against Knutson's 10-4 opening-set record, the first set is the likeliest place for Charaeva to fall behind and the second the likeliest place for her to pull level.
- Set 1 across 15 hard-court matches: 6-9, averaging 4.27 games won and 5.07 lost per set, no tiebreaks (11 Aug–27 Oct 2026).
- Set 2 across the same 15 matches: 10-5, averaging 5.47 games won and 4.53 lost, three tiebreaks.
That record is the main reason this looks closer than the ranking gap suggests.
Her 14 matches average 22.4 total games and 2.36 sets, so matches in this stretch have usually been settled well inside three sets. The caveat is the sample itself: two months of tennis, with five of the eleven wins needing a deciding set, which leaves the straight-sets majority fragile.
- Record of 11 wins and 3 losses across 14 hard-court matches, 26 Aug–26 Oct 2026.
- Scorelines: six 2-0 wins, five 2-1 wins, three 0-2 defeats; average 22.4 total games and 2.36 sets per match.
Her best week of the autumn shows a level above her 8-7 hard-court record.
That result is the standout in a 15-match hard-court sample that otherwise reads 8-7 and explains why she is the higher-ranked player here. The counterweight is consistency: three of her last five completed matches are defeats, including 6-4 3-6 2-6 to Anna Siskova on 21 October. A repeat of the Rybakina level makes her favourite; the surrounding results promise nothing.
- 3 October 2026: beat Elena Rybakina (ranked 1) 3-6 6-4 6-3 on hard.
- 5 October 2026: beat Sonay Kartal (ranked 49) 6-4 6-1 on hard.
The only identified prior meeting came in Limoges in 2025, where Knutson beat Charaeva. It provides direct history between the two players ahead of their Courmayeur match. No score or comparable court-condition detail is available here, which limits how much that result can explain this fixture.
- Their only identified previous meeting was in Limoges in 2025, and Knutson won it.
ReportedSources checked 27 Oct 2026, 20:13 · Europe/BucharestScoregoscorego-app.com · 27 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Knutson's better recent hard-court results and strong opening-set record give her a narrow edge.
- Knutson 11-3 across 14 hard-court matches, including wins over Bandecchi (139) and Arango (157).
- Knutson set 1 record 10-4 on hard; Charaeva's set 1 record is 6-9.
- Charaeva is the higher-ranked player (97 vs 159) but is 8-7 in the same window.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGabriela Andrea KnutsonEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With the match close to even, Knutson usually keeps the game count within two either way.
- Knutson's recent game margins: +5, -1, +5, -9, +2, +6.
- Charaeva's recent game margins: +7, -5, -9, -3, +7, +2.
- Charaeva wins by three games or more only in her clearer wins (7 games, 7 games).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonGabriela Andrea Knutson +2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Knutson's tendency toward short straight-set matches nudges the total slightly below the line.
- Knutson has played 9 of 14 hard matches in straight sets.
- Charaeva's most recent matches include 17, 15 and 17 total games.
- Knutson's set 1 games average is only 9.86.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average close to ten games, just tipping toward the over.
- Knutson set 1 total games average 9.86.
- Charaeva set 1 total games average 9.33.
- Knutson has one first-set tiebreak in 14 matches; Charaeva none in 15.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Charaeva's second sets run slightly longer than Knutson's, leaving the over a marginal call.
- Charaeva set 2 total games average is 10.0.
- Knutson set 2 total games average is 9.14.
- Charaeva has three second-set tiebreaks in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Knutson starts matches clearly better than Charaeva, who has lost the opening set in 9 of 15.
- Knutson set 1: 10 wins, 4 losses, 5.29 games won per set.
- Charaeva set 1: 6 wins, 9 losses, 4.27 games won per set.
- Knutson's latest match was a first-set 7-5 win over Dencheva.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonGabriela Andrea KnutsonEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Charaeva has been the stronger second-set player across the sample while Knutson is even there.
- Charaeva set 2: 10 wins, 5 losses, 5.47 games won per set.
- Knutson set 2: 7 wins, 7 losses, 4.57 games won per set.
- Charaeva won the second set 6-2 in her loss to Zheng and 6-1 against Chiesa.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlina CharaevaEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players finish a majority of matches in straight sets, so the under is marginally favoured.
- Knutson won 2-0 in 6 of 14 hard matches and lost 0-2 in 3.
- Charaeva's scorelines include 7 straight-set results in 15.
- Combined average total sets is about 2.4.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined record shows most of their sets are settled with at least one break.
- Only 5 of 29 combined hard-court matches featured a tiebreak.
- Knutson's set 1 has one tiebreak; Charaeva's first sets have none.
- Charaeva's set 2 has three tiebreaks in 15.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance75%

Previous match context available

Gabriela Andrea Knutson

11W 4L

7-5 3-6 6-0#197Rositsa Dencheva

7-5 4-2 ret.#147Martyna Kubka

3-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3)#139Susan Bandecchi

6-4 6-3#157Emiliana Arango

6-1 6-2#72Maria Timofeeva

6-4 5-7 6-4#295Ayana Akli

6-4 6-2#229Katherine Sebov

6-4 6-2#108Lisa Pigato

7-5 5-7 6-3#145Mia Pohankova

6-2 1-6 6-4#289Malaika Rapolu

6-3 6-2#233Anouk Koevermans

7-6(4) 6-2#300Aoi Ito

6-3 6-3#137Eva Lys

6-4 6-4#178Ekaterine Gorgodze

6-3 6-1#112Dominika Salkova

Alina Charaeva

8W 7L

6-4 6-1#536Enola Chiesa

4-6 6-3 6-2#172Anna Siskova

6-1 6-2#147Martyna Kubka

6-1 2-6 6-4#22Qinwen Zheng

6-4 6-1#49Sonay Kartal

3-6 6-4 6-3#1Elena Rybakina

5-7 7-5 6-2#50Yuliia Starodubtseva

6-4 6-7(6) 7-6(5)#75Anna Bondar

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#126Sofia Kenin

6-4 7-5#72Anna Blinkova

6-2 6-3#148Elina Avanesyan

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#212Xiaodi You

6-4 6-4#139Susan Bandecchi

4-6 6-4 6-3#29Nikola Bartunkova

6-3 6-3#620Rebecca Marino

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GKGabriela Andrea KnutsonKnutson

Last 15

4–2

9 core stats · 3 even

Alina CharaevaCharaevaAC

Gabriela Andrea Knutson carries the stronger recent form — Alina Charaeva's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In59.4%—59.4%

1st Serve Won66.0%+1.2pp64.8%

2nd Serve Won42.8%+1.9pp44.7%

Aces / Match3.7—3.7

Double Faults / Match4.70.5 fewer5.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.4%+1.9pp44.5%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted42.1%+3.2pp45.3%

Break Pts Saved54.8%—54.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.4%+1.0pp50.4%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

59.4%1st Serve In—59.4%

66.0%1st Serve Won+1.2pp64.8%

42.8%2nd Serve Won+1.9pp44.7%

3.7Aces / Match—3.7

4.7Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer5.2

Return · 1–0

46.4%Return Pts Won+1.9pp44.5%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

42.1%Break Pts Converted+3.2pp45.3%

54.8%Break Pts Saved—54.3%

Points · 1–0

51.4%Total Pts Won+1.0pp50.4%