ChinaNingbo - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Sergey Fomin #294Uzbekistan1Liam Broady #233United Kingdom2

Sets 7-5 · 6-7 · 2-6Tue 27 Oct 2026, 06:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLiam Broady · 61 places

Sergey Fomin

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistani right-hander, born 1 February 2001. ATP/ITF profile data lists a singles career high of No. 290 in May 2026 and clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #294
Peak ranking: #290 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Liam Broady

United Kingdom

British left-hander, 32, ranked No. 203 with hard courts listed as his preferred surface. He has spent 2026 largely on the Challenger and qualifying circuit, with four wins in his last 15 matches.

Current ranking: #233
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 12:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Fomin has won more hard-court matches and starts sets far better than Broady, who has taken only two of 12 first sets.

Fomin is the likelier winner, and two quoted prices back that: 3.0 for the match and 2.5 for the first set both rate as potential value. Broady at 1.38 asks for far too much.

Context

Broady's first-set record is the weakest part of his recent hard-court profile.
Broady's slow starts have been the pattern of his hard-court season, leaving him to chase from the first changeover. Fomin, who has won seven of 13 first sets, is the player more likely to be ahead early. Two of Broady's 12 first sets went to tiebreaks, so the damage is not all one-sided.
- 12 completed hard-court matches tracked from 29 June to 22 October 2026
- Set 1 record: 2 wins, 10 losses, averaging 4.5 games won against 5.5 lost
- Two first-set tiebreaks in the sample
Fomin's results have been short and decisive in either direction on hard courts.
Fomin's 13 hard-court matches average 2.23 sets, and his five wins came without dropping a set, mirroring five 0-2 defeats. A best-of-three is therefore unlikely to stretch far, but the outcome has swung hard rather than gradually. Broady's hard-court matches average 2.42 sets, so the short pattern is not his.
- 13 completed hard-court matches, 13 August to 20 October 2026
- Scorelines: five 2-0 wins, five 0-2 losses, three 1-2 losses
- Average 21.2 total games and 2.23 sets per match
The 26 October Ningbo draw fixes this as a round-of-32 match on outdoor hard courts. That setting is relevant alongside Fomin's listed clay preference and Broady's listed hard-court preference. The available fixture listing provides no player-specific availability update or court-speed detail.
- The Ningbo round-of-32 listing pairs Fomin with Broady on 26 October 2026 and identifies outdoor hard courts.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 12:35 · Europe/BucharestScorego match listingscorego-app.com · 25 Oct 2026
Fomin's listed pre-Ningbo schedule contains three losses between 16 and 20 October. The Schoolkate defeat reached a deciding set, while the other two were straight-set losses. Those scorelines describe recent results but provide no match-duration, travel, or medical information.
- Fomin's listed results immediately before Ningbo include losses on 16, 17 and 20 October, with the Schoolkate match going three sets.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 12:35 · Europe/BucharestTennis Temple match pageen.tennistemple.com · 25 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Fomin has won more hard-court matches and starts sets more reliably, while Broady has struggled to break serve.
- Fomin is 5-8 on hard courts this season; Broady is 2-10.
- Fomin has won 7 of 13 first sets on hard courts; Broady has won 2 of 12.
- Fomin's five hard-court wins all came in straight sets.
- Broady has converted only 32.2% of break points on hard courts.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSergey FominEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broady's first sets often reach at least 10 games, and Fomin's average is close to the line.
- Fomin's first sets average 9.46 total games.
- Broady's first sets average 10.0 total games.
- Broady's last six first sets had five totals of 10 or more.
- Both players have two first-set tiebreaks in these samples.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broady's second sets regularly go past nine games, and Fomin has had some long second sets.
- Broady's second sets average 10.67 total games.
- Fomin's second sets average 9.31 total games.
- Broady's last six second sets had four totals of 10 or more.
- Fomin has second-set tiebreaks in two of 13 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fomin's matches usually finish quickly, and Broady has many straight-set losses that hold the total down.
- Fomin's hard-court matches average 21.2 total games.
- Broady's hard-court matches average 24.9 total games.
- Fomin has finished 10 of 13 hard matches in two sets.
- Broady lost 0-2 in six of 12 hard matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have more straight-set results than three-set results on hard courts.
- Fomin has finished 10 of 13 hard matches in two sets.
- Broady has finished 7 of 12 hard matches in two sets.
- Fomin's five hard wins all came in straight sets.
- Broady lost 0-2 in six of 12 hard matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Fomin starts sets much better, and Broady has lost 10 of 12 first sets.
- Fomin won 7 of 13 first sets on hard.
- Broady won 2 of 12 first sets on hard.
- Fomin averages 4.85 first-set games won.
- Broady averages 4.5 first-set games won and 5.5 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSergey FominEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets are closely matched, with Fomin holding a small overall edge in set wins.
- Fomin won 6 of 13 second sets on hard.
- Broady won 5 of 12 second sets on hard.
- Fomin averages 4.54 second-set games won.
- Broady averages 5.25 second-set games won.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostSergey FominEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most hard-court matches for both have avoided tiebreaks.
- Fomin had no tiebreak in 9 of 13 hard matches.
- Broady had no tiebreak in 8 of 12 hard matches.
- Each player has two first-set tiebreaks in the sample.
- Fomin's first sets average 9.46 total games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance66%

Sergey Fomin

6W 9L

6-2 4-6 6-4#169Tristan Schoolkate

6-2 6-3#867Martin Borisiouk

6-4 6-1#714Yusuke Takahashi

6-2 6-2—Matthew Shearer

7-6(1) 7-5#620Dominik Palan

6-2 7-6(4)#609Timofei Derepasko

6-3 6-1#405Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

7-6(1) 7-5#280Yi Zhou

7-5 6-0#431Khumoun Sultanov

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4—Xirui Han

4-6 6-1 7-5#397Aziz Dougaz

6-2 6-1#427Masamichi Imamura

6-1 6-4#382Kasidit Samrej

7-5 4-1 ret.#775Maxim Zhukov

1-6 6-1 6-3#531Giuseppe La Vela

Liam Broady

4W 11L

6-4 6-4#309Akira Santillan

6-7(5) 6-4 6-2#620Dominik Palan

6-4 6-4#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-4 3-6 6-1#251Dominic Stricker

7-6(4) 6-3#164Marco Cecchinato

6-3 7-5#421Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-4 7-5#402Ozan Baris

7-5 5-7 6-4#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 7-5#376Yuta Shimizu

6-4 5-7 7-6(4)#116Aleksandar Vukic

6-3 7-6(6)#37Alex Michelsen

6-3 7-6(2)#203Andre Ilagan

7-6(4) 6-3#116Aleksandar Vukic

2-6 7-5 7-6(5)#398Jack Kennedy

6-1 6-2#242Hayato Matsuoka

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SFSergey FominFomin

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Liam BroadyBroadyLB

Sergey Fomin carries the stronger recent form — Liam Broady's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In57.0%+1.5pp58.5%

1st Serve Won71.9%—71.7%

2nd Serve Won49.8%+2.1pp47.7%

Aces / Match5.1+1.43.7

Double Faults / Match3.50.3 fewer3.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won36.6%—35.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.2%+3.9pp34.3%

Break Pts Saved58.3%+4.5pp62.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won49.7%+0.8pp48.9%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

57.0%1st Serve In+1.5pp58.5%

71.9%1st Serve Won—71.7%

49.8%2nd Serve Won+2.1pp47.7%

5.1Aces / Match+1.43.7

3.5Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer3.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

36.6%Return Pts Won—35.9%

Pressure · 1–1

38.2%Break Pts Converted+3.9pp34.3%

58.3%Break Pts Saved+4.5pp62.8%

Points · 1–0

49.7%Total Pts Won+0.8pp48.9%