United StatesSioux Falls - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Sebastian Gorzny #406United States0Darwin Blanch #159United States2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Tue 27 Oct 2026, 23:15 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions8–189%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDarwin Blanch · 247 places

Sebastian Gorzny

United States

A 22-year-old American right-hander. The supplied structured feed lists him at No. 876; the ITF page's June 2026 career-high figure is older, so his exact current career high was not independently verified.

Current ranking: #406
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Darwin Blanch

United States

Left-handed player with limited reliable public profile information surfaced in the requested searches. Use structured recent-form data as the main current-performance context.

Current ranking: #159
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 15:17 · Europe/Bucharest

A left-handed serve against a one-handed backhand frames this first round in Sioux Falls: Darwin Blanch, ranked 159, has won 12 of his last 15 hard-court matches, while Sebastian Gorzny, ranked 406, has come up short against the better opponents he has met.

Blanch winning looks the likeliest result, and the quoted 1.55 offers something; so, more narrowly, does 1.60 on Blanch taking the first set. Gorzny at 2.3 does not.

Context

Blanch's serve has been his most dependable scoring shot over this stretch of hard-court tennis.
The first serve is doing heavy lifting: 75.0% of those points won across 15 matches, and 72.2% of break points saved. That keeps him out of trouble in the tight games that decide short sets. Whether the rate survives against a better-ranked opponent than most of that slate is the open question.
- Last 15 hard-court matches tracked through 2026-10-24
- First-serve points won 505/673 (75.0%)
- Break points saved 70/97 (72.2%)
- Aces 7.7 and double faults 3.2 per match
Blanch's recent hard-court matches have habitually started with him in front.
Fast starts are a consistent feature of this 14-match sample, and only one of those matches ended in a straight-sets defeat. In a best-of-three format that immediately puts the opponent under pressure to respond. A single set does not settle the match, so the lead only matters if he sustains it.
- 14 completed best-of-three hard-court matches, 2026-09-15 to 2026-10-24
- First sets: 11 won, 3 lost
- First-set games average 5.6 won, 4.1 lost
- Scorelines: eight 2-0 wins, four 2-1 wins, one 0-2 loss and one 1-2 loss
Gorzny pushed a higher-ranked opponent the distance but still went out.
He took the second set 6-2 and finished level on games, so this was a competitive loss rather than a collapse. The players who have beaten him lately sit inside the top 300. Here he meets someone ranked 159, a step up again.
- Match dated 2026-10-20 on hard court
- Opponent Igor Ribeiro Marcondes, ranked 266
- Score 5-7 6-2 4-6, games 15-15

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Blanch has won consistently on hard against similar-level opposition while Gorzny has been losing to players ranked around 200-280, and the left-handed serve adds a further problem for a one-handed backhand.
- Blanch 12-3 on hard over his last 15, games won 54.8% against Gorzny's 52.4%
- First-serve points won 75.0% vs 70.6%; break points saved 72.2% vs 68.2%
- Set 1 record on hard 11-3; set 2 record 10-4
- Ranked 159 against 406, and his left-handed serve works into Gorzny's one-handed backhand
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDarwin BlanchEstimated chance71%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players win the majority of their opening sets, and wins at 6-4 or closer clear this line.
- Gorzny's first sets average 10.7 games; Blanch's 9.6
- Combined first-set tiebreaks: 3 across 27 tracked sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for both players sit right around ten games, with Gorzny's slightly above the line.
- Blanch's second sets average 9.7 games; Gorzny's 10.2
- Gorzny has played four second-set tiebreaks in 13 tracked sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Blanch's dominance shortens matches, and his straight-set wins typically land around 17-22 games.
- Blanch averages 22.9 total games per hard-court match; Gorzny 25.6
- Blanch's set scores average about 9.7 games per set
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 24.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Blanch's edge in service points and break-point defence carries into the second set.
- Blanch has won set 2 in 10 of 14 completed hard-court matches
- Gorzny has won set 2 in 9 of 13 on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonDarwin BlanchEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Blanch starts fast more often than not, and his stronger serve numbers give him the better chance of an early lead.
- Blanch has won set 1 in 11 of 14 completed hard-court matches
- Gorzny has won set 1 in 9 of 13 on the same surface
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDarwin BlanchEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Blanch usually settles matches in two sets and his serve makes straight-set wins the most likely single path.
- Blanch 8 of 14 hard-court matches ended 2-0
- Blanch average match time 99.7 minutes
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these matches are settled with breaks rather than reaching 6-6.
- Gorzny 5 tiebreak matches in 13; Blanch 4 in 14
- Blanch break points saved 72.2%, Gorzny 68.2%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player double faults heavily, and the combined rate sits just under this total.
- Gorzny 4.1 double faults per match; Blanch 3.2 per match
- Combined rate 7.3 per match, below the line
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The two ace rates combine to just under the line, and Blanch's shorter matches reduce the number of service games.
- Gorzny 7.7 aces per match; Blanch 7.7 per match
- Blanch's matches average 99.7 minutes, so fewer service games overall
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 15.5Estimated chance51%

Previous match context available

Sebastian Gorzny

8W 7L

7-5 2-6 6-4#266Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

5-7 7-6(3) 6-2#283Alastair Gray

7-5 6-4#468Quinn Vandecasteele

7-5 7-6(3)#401Edward Winter

6-4 7-6(7)#200Tristan Boyer

4-6 7-5 7-5#349Mitchell Krueger

6-3 6-4#336Aidan Mayo

7-5 6-0#729Andrew Johnson

7-6(5) 1-6 7-5#216Jeff Wolf

6-2 6-4#134Nishesh Basavareddy

7-5 6-2#425Luca Staeheli

6-1 6-3 7-5#5Daniil Medvedev

3-6 6-3 3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#55Raphael Collignon

1-6 7-6(3) 6-4#324Cruz Hewitt

4-6 6-4 6-3#186Felix Balshaw

Darwin Blanch

12W 3L

7-6(5) 6-2#451Sander Jong

6-3 6-4#331Mees Rottgering

6-1 6-4#319Daniel Milavsky

6-4 7-5#868Albert Pedrico Kravtsov

6-3 6-3#252Dylan Dietrich

6-3 1-6 6-3#319Daniel Milavsky

6-4 7-5#864Patrick Maloney

3-6 6-3 7-5#224Andres Andrade

4-6 7-6(9) 6-1#216Jeff Wolf

3-6 6-4 6-2#147Michael Mmoh

7-6(5) 7-6(9)#101Michael Zheng

6-3 6-3#572Bryce Nakashima

6-3 6-0#210Federico Agustin Gomez

6-3 2-6 7-6(10)#278Stefan Kozlov

6-3 6-2 6-4#14Taylor Fritz

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SGSebastian GorznyGorzny

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Darwin BlanchBlanchDB

Darwin Blanch carries the stronger recent form — Sebastian Gorzny's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.7%+4.8pp57.9%

1st Serve Won70.6%+4.4pp75.0%

2nd Serve Won49.2%+2.9pp52.1%

Aces / Match7.7—7.7

Double Faults / Match4.10.9 fewer3.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.7%+1.7pp37.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.8%+4.2pp39.6%

Break Pts Saved68.2%+4.0pp72.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.9%+0.9pp51.8%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

62.7%1st Serve In+4.8pp57.9%

70.6%1st Serve Won+4.4pp75.0%

49.2%2nd Serve Won+2.9pp52.1%

7.7Aces / Match—7.7

4.1Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer3.2

Return · 1–0

38.7%Return Pts Won+1.7pp37.0%

Pressure · 1–1

43.8%Break Pts Converted+4.2pp39.6%

68.2%Break Pts Saved+4.0pp72.2%

Points · 0–1

50.9%Total Pts Won+0.9pp51.8%