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Predictions graded

Jake Delaney #357Australia2Alexandr Binda #465Russia1

Sets 6-4 · 4-6 · 6-4Tue 27 Oct 2026, 04:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions5–456%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJake Delaney · 108 places

Jake Delaney

Australia

Delaney, 29, is a right-hander whose ITF profile lists hard as his preferred surface. He reached his career-best singles ranking of No. 354 in July 2026.

Current ranking: #357
Peak ranking: #354 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Alexandr Binda

Russia

Binda, 24, is the right-hander in this matchup and reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 368 in August 2025. No direct preferred-surface designation was found in the checked public profiles.

Current ranking: #465
Peak ranking: #368 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 15:19 · Europe/Bucharest

A lower-ranked player in better form: Binda, No. 465, has won 10 of 15 hard-court matches, while Delaney, No. 357, has lost three of his last four.

The likeliest result is a Binda win, and the opening set is where that edge shows most. Binda at 1.9 for the match, 1.95 for the first set and 1.9 for the second all offer something at those prices; Delaney at 1.8 to win does not.

Context

Binda has played five sets of competitive tennis in the two days before this first round.
Five sets across two days is a genuine workload entering a first-round match, and the second of them ran to 28 games. The upside is sharpness: Binda has already adjusted to conditions and balls. The risk is heavier legs than Delaney, whose last completed match was on 19 October.
- Binda beat Millen Hurrion (No. 502) 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 on 26 October 2026, a 28-game match.
- Binda beat Jia Hu 6-4, 6-2 on 25 October 2026 in the previous qualifying round.
- Binda's hard-court sample is 15 matches, earliest 8 September 2026.
His wins in that window were four 2-0 scorelines and two 2-1s, so his matches do go the distance — but so far only when he is ahead. If Delaney drops the first set, recent evidence suggests a comeback has been rare. It is a 14-match sample, a tendency rather than a rule.
- Delaney's 14 hard-court matches from 1 September to 19 October 2026 produced scorelines of 0-2 eight times, 2-0 four times and 2-1 twice.
- His average match length in that window was 2.14 sets.
He averages 4.86 games won against 5.64 lost in the opening set, so the set is contested without often being his. Binda's first-set record is 9-6 with an average of 10.0 games, which suggests a close opener with Binda slightly more likely to edge it.
- Delaney's first sets across 14 hard-court matches: 4 wins, 10 losses, 4.86 games won against 5.64 lost, 10.5 total games, 5 tiebreaks.
- Binda's first sets across 15 hard-court matches: 9 wins, 6 losses, 5.07 games won against 4.93 lost.
He landed 60% of first serves and averaged 5.6 aces against 3.5 double faults, a reliable base for a first-round match. Delaney has no serve metrics in the same window, so the comparison stays one-sided. The weaker part is break-point conversion: 35%, or 42 of 120.
- Over 15 hard-court matches, Binda won 71.1% of first-serve points (471 of 662) and 51% of total points (1164 of 2284).
- He averaged 5.6 aces and 3.5 double faults per match, with 60% first serves in.
- Break points converted: 42 of 120 (35%); break points saved: 54 of 92 (58.7%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Binda has the better recent hard-court record and stronger serve and return numbers.
- Binda has won 10 of 15 hard-court matches, including two qualifying wins on 25-26 Oct.
- Binda has won 51% of total points and 71.1% of first-serve points over 15 hard matches.
- Delaney is 6-8 on hard and has lost three of his last four completed matches.
- Delaney's set-1 record on hard is 4-10.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlexandr BindaEstimated chance66%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have averaged at least 10 games for both players.
- Delaney's first sets average 10.5 total games on hard.
- Binda's first sets average 10.0 total games.
- Delaney has five first-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.
- Binda has two first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have averaged just over 10 games for both players.
- Delaney's second sets average 10.36 total games.
- Binda's second sets average 10.07 total games.
- Binda has four second-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
- Delaney has five second-set tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined averages sit just above 22.5 games and Binda's latest match was long.
- Binda's hard-court matches average 23.1 total games.
- Delaney's hard-court matches average 22.5 total games.
- Binda's latest match had 28 games.
- Both players average near 10 games in each of the first two sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance54%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court results point more often to a straight-set finish.
- Binda has six 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses in 15 hard matches.
- Delaney has eight 0-2 losses and four 2-0 wins in 14 hard matches.
- Delaney's total sets average is 2.14.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Binda starts sets better and Delaney has lost most of his recent first sets.
- Binda has won 9 of 15 first sets on hard.
- Binda averages 5.07 first-set games won and 4.93 lost.
- Delaney has won only 4 of 14 first sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlexandr BindaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Binda has the better second-set win count and Delaney has lost more second sets than he has won.
- Binda has won 8 of 15 second sets on hard.
- Binda averages 5.07 second-set games won and 5.00 lost.
- Delaney has lost 8 of 14 second sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlexandr BindaEstimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Binda's hard-court matches more often finish without a tiebreak.
- Binda has had no tiebreak in 9 of 15 hard matches.
- Delaney has had no tiebreak in 7 of 14 hard matches.
- Binda's total tiebreak sets are 6 in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance51%

Previous match context available

Jake Delaney

7W 8L

6-4 7-6(4)#92Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-3 6-2#225Marat Sharipov (RUS)

4-3 ret.#887Ajeet Rai

7-6(4) 6-4—Unknown Player

6-4 6-0—Wihan Van Der Merwe

6-2 6-2—Harrison Satara

7-6(7) 7-6(6)#893Derek Pham

7-6(3) 6-3—Lachlan Vickery

6-3 7-5#815Sam Ryan Ziegann

6-3 6-4#179Taro Daniel

6-3 6-2#180Bernard Tomic

4-6 6-3 6-4#592Hikaru Shiraishi

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#172Pavel Kotov

2-6 7-6(5) 7-6(6)#242Hayato Matsuoka

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#475Koki Matsuda

Alexandr Binda

10W 5L

3-6 6-3 6-4#502Millen Hurrion 6-4 6-2—Jia Hu

6-3 7-6(4)#614Yaroslav Demin

6-1 6-0#97Adam Walton

6-3 6-3#671Sidharth Rawat

5-7 7-6(4) 6-1#752Kuan-Shou Chen

6-4 4-6 6-3#813Jesse Flores

6-4 7-6(3)#642Nikolai Barsukov

6-4 6-4#752Yunseong Chung

6-3 6-4#180Bernard Tomic

4-6 7-6(4) 6-4#296Fajing Sun

6-3 6-4#891Aoran Wang

6-4 4-6 6-4#795Kousuke Ogura

7-6(7) 6-3#897Kaito Uesugi

7-6(4) 6-2#353Tung-Lin Wu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JDJake DelaneyDelaney

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Alexandr BindaBindaAB

Jake Delaney carries the stronger recent form — Alexandr Binda's route runs through return.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In64.6%+4.6pp60.0%

1st Serve Won75.6%+4.5pp71.1%

2nd Serve Won52.9%+1.7pp51.2%

Aces / Match10.7+5.15.6

Double Faults / Match2.70.8 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won30.8%+8.7pp39.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted48.8%+13.8pp35.0%

Break Pts Saved76.6%+17.9pp58.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.7%+1.3pp51.0%

Serve · 5–0

64.6%1st Serve In+4.6pp60.0%

75.6%1st Serve Won+4.5pp71.1%

52.9%2nd Serve Won+1.7pp51.2%

10.7Aces / Match+5.15.6

2.7Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer3.5

Return · 0–1

30.8%Return Pts Won+8.7pp39.5%

Pressure · 2–0

48.8%Break Pts Converted+13.8pp35.0%

76.6%Break Pts Saved+17.9pp58.7%

Points · 0–1

49.7%Total Pts Won+1.3pp51.0%