MexicoWTA QueretaroFinished

Predictions graded

Fiona Ferro #100France2Sofia Johnson #364United Kingdom1

Sets 7-5 · 1-6 · 6-3Tue 27 Oct 2026, 17:55 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions1–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFiona Ferro · 264 places

Fiona Ferro

France

French right-hander with a career-high ranking of No. 39 in March 2021. ITF lists clay and hard as her preferred surfaces; WTA lists Emmanuel Planque as coach.

Current ranking: #100
Peak ranking: #39 · 2021
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Sofia Johnson

United Kingdom

Johnson, 22, is a right-hander whose preferred surface is hard. Her singles career high is No. 454, reached in August 2026.

Current ranking: #364
Peak ranking: #454 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 03:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Ferro's clay record of 11-1 in 12 tracked matches, eight of them straight-set wins, makes her the clear favourite against an opponent with no tracked clay matches at all.

Expect Ferro to win, but the 1.15 quote requires an 87% chance the record does not quite support, and Johnson at 5.25 is no better. No quoted price here is worth taking.

Context

Ferro's set-by-set clay record suggests she tends to establish a lead rather than trade early breaks.
The clay sample runs from Sept 3 to Oct 16, 2026, and the splits show she rarely trails early: 10-2 in first sets and 9-3 in second sets, with eight straight-set wins in 12 matches. Against a first-round opponent with no tracked clay matches, that fast-start pattern is the most repeatable part of her case.
- 12 tracked clay matches, Sept 3 to Oct 16, 2026: 10-2 in first sets, 9-3 in second sets.
- Eight of her wins came in straight sets; one match finished 0-2.
- Average total games per clay match: 19.5.
The most recent clay result is the strongest argument against reading Ferro's 11-1 record as untroubled form.
One match does not erase 11 clay wins, but the manner of the Oct 16 loss to a player ranked 129 is the obvious risk: Ferro won only four games. It is a recent reminder that her level can drop sharply, and it is the reason the quoted odds demand a high degree of confidence.
- Oct 16, 2026: lost 2-6 2-6 to No. 129 Leyre Romero Gormaz on clay, winning four games.
- This was her only defeat in 12 tracked clay matches between Sept 3 and Oct 16, 2026.
Johnson's recent numbers are a hard-court baseline, not evidence about how she plays on clay.
Johnson's entire 15-match sample is on hard courts, so there is no clay evidence either way. Her hard-court numbers, including 60.6% first serves in and 51% of total points won, suggest a competitive baseline, but the switch to clay in the first round is an unmeasured variable rather than a known weakness.
- 15 matches tracked, 9-6, all on hard courts.
- 51% of total points won (952 of 1865) and 52.5% of games won (155 of 295).
- 60.6% first serves in and 61.4% first-serve points won across the sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Fiona Ferro

1.15fair 1.22

BetBugs 82% · Market 87%

−5.0ppshort

Ferro has a deep clay record with frequent straight-set wins, while Johnson has no clay evidence in the sample.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Ferro has a deep clay record with frequent straight-set wins, while Johnson has no clay evidence in the sample.
- Ferro is 11-1 in 12 tracked clay matches, with 8 straight-set wins.
- On clay she has won 10 of 12 first sets and 9 of 12 second sets.
- Ranking gap: Ferro is No. 100, Johnson is No. 364.
- Johnson has no tracked clay matches; her recent results are on hard courts.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFiona FerroEstimated chance82%

Prediction history

Fiona Ferro: 5/6 recent winner projections matched

5 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Fiona Ferro matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Fiona Ferro6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

24 Jul·WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#320Mina Hodzic

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Matched

24 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#320Mina Hodzic

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

22 Jul·WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#215Erika Andreeva

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#191Fiona Ferro2-0#215Erika Andreeva

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

20 Jul·WTA Palermo

#189Fiona Ferro2-0#306Yufei Ren

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·65%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

WTA Palermo

#189Fiona Ferro2-0#306Yufei Ren

Fiona Ferro to win

65%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

14 Jul·WTA Rome

#189Fiona Ferro1-2#292Aurora Zantedeschi

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#189Fiona Ferro1-2#292Aurora Zantedeschi

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Aurora Zantedeschi won

Missed

16 Jun·WTA Brescia

#185Fiona Ferro2-1#240Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

BetBugsFiona Ferro to win·62%

Matched

16 Jun 2026

WTA Brescia

#185Fiona Ferro2-1#240Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

Fiona Ferro to win

62%probability

Fiona Ferro won

Matched

Fiona Ferro

12W 3L

6-2 6-2#129Leyre Romero Gormaz

7-5 6-1#282Selena Janicijevic

6-3 6-4#272Aurora Zantedeschi

6-1 2-0 ret.#405Sijia Wei

6-4 2-6 6-1#387Yidi Yang

6-3 6-3#42Talia Gibson

6-1 6-2#127Noma Akugue Noha

6-1 2-6 6-0#153Dalma Galfi

6-4 6-0#181Lucie Havlickova

6-4 6-4#191Barbora Palicova

6-3 6-4#185Mona Barthel

2-6 6-3 7-5#151Clara Burel

6-4 6-2#279Francesca Pace

6-4 6-3#379Diletta Cherubini

6-2 2-6 6-1#272Aurora Zantedeschi

Sofia Johnson

9W 6L

6-3 6-1#355Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez

6-3 6-1#95Renata Zarazua

3-6 6-3 6-3#675Anne Christine Lutkemeyer

6-3 7-5—Mckenna Schaefbauer

6-4 6-2#70Maria Timofeeva

6-3 6-4#265Reese Brantmeier

6-2 6-2#824Ivana Sebestova

6-0 6-2#289Malaika Rapolu

6-4 6-2#335Margaux Rouvroy

6-1 1-6 6-3#247Matilde Jorge

5-7 6-3 7-5#186Kayla Cross

6-2 6-2#231Xinyu Gao

4-6 6-2 6-2#309Oceane Dodin

6-3 6-4#808Mary Lewis

6-1 6-0#842Isabella Marton

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FFFiona FerroFerro

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Sofia JohnsonJohnsonSJ

Fiona Ferro carries the stronger recent form — Sofia Johnson's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In71.3%+10.7pp60.6%

1st Serve Won57.6%+3.8pp61.4%

2nd Serve Won45.9%+0.8pp46.7%

Aces / Match0.7+0.81.5

Double Faults / Match1.31.3 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won51.4%+4.9pp46.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.0%+4.6pp51.6%

Break Pts Saved56.7%+1.9pp54.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.8%+1.8pp51.0%

Serve · 2–3

71.3%1st Serve In+10.7pp60.6%

57.6%1st Serve Won+3.8pp61.4%

45.9%2nd Serve Won+0.8pp46.7%

0.7Aces / Match+0.81.5

1.3Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer2.6

Return · 1–0

51.4%Return Pts Won+4.9pp46.5%

Pressure · 1–1

47.0%Break Pts Converted+4.6pp51.6%

56.7%Break Pts Saved+1.9pp54.8%

Points · 1–0

52.8%Total Pts Won+1.8pp51.0%