United StatesSioux Falls - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Andres Martin #338United States0Kaylan Bigun #573United States2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Tue 27 Oct 2026, 01:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions9–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndres Martin · 235 places

Andres Martin

United States

Born on 7 July 2001, Martin reached a career-high ranking of No. 250 on 30 March 2026. The ITF lists sand/clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #338
Peak ranking: #250 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Kaylan Bigun

United States

American left-hander born on 23 May 2006. Public player records list a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 507 in June 2026; no reliable source in this search established a stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: #573
Peak ranking: #507 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 15:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Identical 8-7 hard-court records meet in Sioux Falls, yet Kaylan Bigun has been the far better starter, taking 11 of 15 first sets to Andres Martin's nine.

Bigun is the narrow pick for the match, and the opening set is his clearest edge. Bigun to win the first set at 2.10 is the price worth taking; Martin at 1.65 in the same market is not.

Context

Bigun's first-set margin is the widest split between the two players, at 11-4 and roughly two games per set.
Bigun has taken 11 of 15 first sets on hard courts, winning 5.67 games to 3.60, with only one of those sets reaching a tiebreak. Martin has won nine of 15 first sets by a 5.2 to 4.13 game margin, and none of his tracked first sets went to a tiebreak. The opening set is therefore where Bigun's advantage looks clearest, though Martin did take the opener 6-3 in his most recent match.
- Bigun won 11 of 15 first sets across hard-court matches dated 6 August to 22 October 2026.
- He averaged 5.67 games won to 3.60 lost in first sets, with one first-set tiebreak.
Martin's most recent completed match ended in a three-set defeat to a player ranked 250 places below him.
Martin lost 6-3, 6-7, 4-6 to Erik Arutiunian, ranked 588, on 20 October 2026, with 16 games each. One result is not a trend by itself, but it shows the higher-ranked player being dragged to the edge by a lower-ranked opponent. He did win the opening set 6-3, so the same match also cuts against reading his form as a flat negative.
- Martin lost 6-3, 6-7, 4-6 to Erik Arutiunian (ranked 588) on 20 October 2026 in a completed best-of-three hard-court match.
- He won 16 games and lost 16 in that match.
The fixture is scheduled for a hard court at Huether Family Match Pointe on 26 October. Martin's supplied structured profile lists hard as his preferred surface, while Bigun's does as well. The available listing provides no player-specific evidence about venue familiarity or conditions beyond the surface.
- The match is listed for 26 October at Huether Family Match Pointe on a hard court.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 15:11 · Europe/Bucharestnb-bet.comnb-bet.com · 25 Oct 2026
Bigun's wildcard places him directly in the Sioux Falls main draw against Martin. It identifies his route into an opening-round matchup between players ranked No. 573 and No. 338 in the supplied structured data. A wildcard entry does not itself establish current form, fitness or preparation.
- Bigun is listed as a wildcard entrant for the first-round match.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 15:11 · Europe/BucharestTennis.comwww.tennis.com · 25 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bigun has the stronger recent results and a clear first-set advantage, which gives him a narrow overall edge.
- Both players are 8-7 across their last 15 hard-court matches.
- Bigun has won 11 of 15 first sets on hard courts; Martin 9 of 15.
- Bigun has saved 65.7% of break points, Martin 56.6%.
- Martin has lost four of his last six completed matches, including to players ranked 588, 776 and 877.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKaylan BigunEstimated chance52%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Martin's second sets run long and often go to tiebreaks, pulling the combined figure above the line.
- Martin's second sets average 11.0 total games with five tiebreaks.
- Bigun's second sets average 9.27 total games with two tiebreaks.
- Combined second-set average is about 10.1 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets finish before a tiebreak almost every time, keeping the game count low.
- Bigun's first sets average 9.27 total games.
- Martin's first sets average 9.33 total games.
- Bigun has played one first-set tiebreak in 15 matches, Martin none.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bigun's shorter matches pull the combined expectation just below the line.
- Martin's matches average 24.3 total games, Bigun's 21.7.
- Bigun's matches average 2.33 sets.
- Both players win roughly 52-53% of their games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance54%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bigun has a strong habit of finishing matches in two sets, which tilts the set count downward.
- Bigun's matches average 2.33 sets; only one of his eight wins needed three.
- Bigun has finished 2-0 in seven of his last 15 matches.
- Five of Bigun's 15 matches were decided in a third set.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Bigun starts matches strongly and has the better first-set game margin on this surface.
- Bigun has won 11 of 15 first sets on hard courts, Martin 9 of 15.
- Bigun averages 5.67 games won and 3.60 lost in first sets.
- Bigun has played only one first-set tiebreak in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKaylan BigunEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bigun's second-set record is modest but still ahead of Martin's, matching his small overall edge.
- Bigun has won 8 of 15 second sets, Martin 6 of 15.
- Bigun's second-set game difference is roughly level at 4.53 won to 4.73 lost.
- Bigun has played two second-set tiebreaks in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonKaylan BigunEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks are relatively uncommon in both players' matches, especially in first sets.
- Martin has had a tiebreak in 5 of 15 matches, Bigun in 3 of 15.
- Bigun has played one first-set tiebreak in 15 matches, Martin none.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate sits right on the line, and ace counts tend to cluster below the average.
- Martin averages 3.7 aces per match, Bigun 4.9.
- Combined average is about 8.6 per match.
- Bigun plays only 2.33 sets per match on average.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' double-fault rates add up to just above the line.
- Martin averages 2.3 double faults per match, Bigun 3.5.
- Combined average is about 5.8 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Andres Martin

8W 7L

3-6 7-6(6) 6-4#588Erik Arutiunian

6-4 7-6(4)#877Oliver Okonkwo

6-4 7-5#776Keaton Hance

6-4 6-4#336Aidan Mayo

5-7 6-3 6-4#426Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos

5-7 7-6(3) 6-0#831Gijs Brouwer

2-6 6-4 6-3#203Andre Ilagan

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#432Spencer Johnson

6-3 4-6 6-2#494Millen Hurrion

6-2 6-2#720Nicolas Arseneault

6-4 7-6(2)#474Trevor Svajda

6-1 6-1#1755Alex Kobelt

6-2 7-5#35Ugo Humbert

6-2 7-5#348Moez Echargui

6-3 4-6 6-2#117Christopher O'Connell

Kaylan Bigun

8W 7L

1-6 6-0 7-5#336Aidan Mayo

6-3 6-3#474Trevor Svajda

6-3 6-2#524Patrick Zahraj

6-3 1-6 6-3#456Andrew Fenty

6-3 7-5#512Li Tu

4-6 7-6(3) 6-2#196Keegan Smith

6-3 6-2#434Alafia Ayeni

6-3 6-4#766Noah Zamora

7-5 6-4#456Andrew Fenty

7-5 6-0#572Bryce Nakashima

2-6 6-3 6-3#688Keshav Chopra

6-1 7-6(4)#669Arklon Huertas Del Pino

6-1 6-4#663Lucas Andrade Da Silva

7-6(5) 4-6 6-3—Maximus Dussault

6-3 6-2#597Naoya Honda

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAndres MartinMartin

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Kaylan BigunBigunKB

Andres Martin carries the stronger recent form — Kaylan Bigun's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.9%+1.0pp60.9%

1st Serve Won70.2%+0.8pp69.4%

2nd Serve Won50.9%—50.2%

Aces / Match3.7+1.24.9

Double Faults / Match2.31.2 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.1%+2.1pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.0%+4.9pp35.1%

Break Pts Saved56.6%+9.1pp65.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.3%+1.3pp51.0%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

61.9%1st Serve In+1.0pp60.9%

70.2%1st Serve Won+0.8pp69.4%

50.9%2nd Serve Won—50.2%

3.7Aces / Match+1.24.9

2.3Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

42.1%Return Pts Won+2.1pp40.0%

Pressure · 1–1

40.0%Break Pts Converted+4.9pp35.1%

56.6%Break Pts Saved+9.1pp65.7%

Points · 1–0

52.3%Total Pts Won+1.3pp51.0%