ItalyWTA CourmayeurFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Zongyu Li #300China0Gaia Maduzzi #505Italy2

Sets 5-7 · 3-6Mon 26 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions4–640%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageZongyu Li · 205 places

Zongyu Li

China

A Chinese player ranked No. 303 whose recent singles matches have come at ITF W75 and W15 level, largely on hard courts. She won the W75 Śląskie Open doubles title in Bytom in late August 2026. Reliable public detail on her age, height, hand and career-high ranking is thin.

Current ranking: #300
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Gaia Maduzzi

Italy

Maduzzi, ranked No. 479, has played all 15 of her tracked recent matches on clay, winning 11. No reliable public information on her age, height or handedness was found.

Current ranking: #505
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 22:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Li, No. 300, faces Maduzzi, No. 505, for a place in the Courmayeur main draw, with ten completed indoor hard matches behind her against Maduzzi's two — though Li's last outing was a 1-12 games loss to Harmony Tan.

Li is the likelier winner, narrowly and on low confidence. Under 2.5 sets at 1.5 is the only quoted selection with anything in it; Maduzzi's three-set clay wins are the risk.

Context

Maduzzi's hard-court sample is small enough that her broader record needs reading with care.
Across those two matches she won 54.8% of games and 52.4% of points, but two matches cannot establish a surface trend either way. Her first sets averaged 8.0 total games and her second sets 7.5, with no tiebreaks. The wider 11-4 record over 15 tracked matches includes clay results from September, so it does not map directly onto this indoor hard court.
- Maduzzi's two completed indoor hard-court matches came on 12 October and 25 October 2026, with scorelines of 0-2 and 2-0.
- Those two matches averaged 15.5 total games, with set one at 8.0 games and set two at 7.5, and no tiebreaks.
Li's retirement came two weeks before this qualifying final, making it relevant recent fitness background. It is her last documented completed match before Courmayeur. No current-event information identifies an ongoing problem, and the bye provides no on-court update. The retirement therefore does not establish an active restriction.
- Li retired against Erika Andreeva after trailing 5-7, 0-1 in the RoveretOpen Città della Pace qualifying final.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 22:34 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 12 Oct 2026
Li's straight-set results give the clearest indication of how her hard-court matches have been shaping up.
The sample covers 10 completed indoor hard matches in a 5-5 record, with two retirements excluded, and only one tiebreak across the whole stretch. Her sets have averaged 8.2 total games in the first and 8.7 in the second, for 19 games per match. That points toward a short match, with the caveat that it is one player's small sample rather than a surface-wide pattern.
- Li's 10 completed hard-court matches from 11 June to 21 October 2026 produced scorelines of five 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses and two 1-2 defeats.
- Her set-one average was 8.2 total games and set two 8.7, with 19 total games per match and one tiebreak in 10 matches.
Li's most recent scoreline is the sharpest recent data point on her side of the draw.
It is the most recent completed match in Li's record, an indoor hard-court loss in which she won one game across two sets. Ten days earlier she had beaten No. 474 Isabella Maria Serban 6-2, 6-1, so her scorelines in the same period have swung widely. A single result is thin evidence of form and the record offers no explanation for the gap.
- Li lost 1-6, 0-6 to Harmony Tan (No. 215) on 21 October 2026 in indoor hard-court play.
- She had beaten Isabella Maria Serban (No. 474) 6-2, 6-1 on 11 October 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Li has the higher ranking and a much larger hard-court sample, though her form is mixed.
- Li is ranked 300, 205 places above Maduzzi.
- Li's hard-court record is 5-5 over 10 completed matches.
- Maduzzi's hard-court record is 1-1 over two completed matches.
- Li's 10 hard matches include five wins and five losses.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostZongyu LiEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have usually stayed below ten games in the available hard-court matches.
- Li's set1 total games average 8.2 over 10 hard matches.
- Maduzzi's set1 total games average 8.0 over two hard matches.
- Neither player has a set1 tiebreak in the hard samples.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have generally been short in these hard-court samples.
- Li's set2 total games average 8.7 over 10 hard matches.
- Maduzzi's set2 total games average 7.5 over two hard matches.
- Li has one set2 tiebreak in her hard sample.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Li has often lost the game count in recent hard matches, so Maduzzi can stay within two games even in defeat.
- Maduzzi's two completed hard matches had game margins +10 and -7.
- Li's five completed hard matches had margins -11, +9, -5, -8 and -2.
- Maduzzi won 54.8% of games across her two hard matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonGaia Maduzzi +2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Li's hard matches finished in two sets, and Maduzzi's hard matches were short.
- Li's 10 hard matches averaged 19 total games.
- Maduzzi's two hard matches averaged 15.5 total games.
- Eight of Li's 10 hard matches finished in two sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 19.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
The available hard-court matches mostly finished in straight sets.
- Eight of Li's 10 hard matches finished in two sets.
- Maduzzi's two hard matches both finished in two sets.
- Li's hard scorelines include five 2-0 wins and three 0-2 losses.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Li has won the opening set more often in the larger hard-court sample.
- Li won the first set in 6 of 10 hard matches.
- Maduzzi won the first set in 1 of 2 hard matches.
- Li's set1 games average is 4.3 won and 3.9 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostZongyu LiEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Li has been slightly stronger in second sets across her hard-court sample.
- Li won the second set in 6 of 10 hard matches.
- Maduzzi won the second set in 1 of 2 hard matches.
- Li's set2 games average is 4.6 won and 4.1 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostZongyu LiEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare in both players' hard-court samples.
- Li has one tiebreak in 10 hard matches.
- Maduzzi has no tiebreaks in two hard matches.
- Neither player has a set1 tiebreak in the hard samples.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance73%

Zongyu Li

5W 10L

6-1 6-0#215Harmony Tan

7-5 0-1 ret.#182Erika Andreeva

6-2 6-1#474Isabella Maria Serban

6-1 5-7 7-5#368Jia-Jing Lu

6-4 6-0#157Elsa Jacquemot

3-6 6-4 6-3#249Fangran Tian

6-1 6-0#231Xinyu Gao

6-0 6-0#197Rositsa Dencheva

4-6 6-3 6-0#479Zhibek Kulambayeva

6-1 6-4#218Francisca Jorge

4-1 ret.#287Hanna Chang

6-4 6-2#412Unknown Player

6-2 6-1#168Mai Hontama

6-3 7-6(6)#256Mei Yamaguchi

6-1 6-2#429Reina Goto

Gaia Maduzzi

11W 4L

6-1 6-1—Finja Matuella

6-3 6-2#139Susan Bandecchi

7-5 6-1#238Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

6-4 4-6 6-3#390Raluca Georgiana Serban

6-3 2-6 7-6(2)#771Amelia Paszun

6-4 7-5—Lorena Schaedel

6-7(5) 6-0 6-3#142Elizara Yaneva

6-1 4-6 7-5#771Amelia Paszun

6-4 1-6 6-3#592Nina Radovanovic

7-6(2) 6-2—Ralitsa Alexandrova

6-4 6-0#406Denisa Zoldakova

6-3 7-5#263Elena Malygina

6-1 6-4#238Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

6-3 6-0#771Amelia Paszun

6-3 6-4—Sara Husar

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ZLZongyu LiLi

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Gaia MaduzziMaduzziGM

Gaia Maduzzi carries the stronger recent form — Zongyu Li's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In65.6%+8.9pp56.7%

1st Serve Won59.0%+3.0pp62.0%

2nd Serve Won44.8%—44.9%

Aces / Match0.9+1.12.0

Double Faults / Match2.71.3 fewer4.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.3%+7.2pp47.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted44.9%+2.5pp47.4%

Break Pts Saved63.0%+15.0pp48.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.5%+3.6pp51.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

65.6%1st Serve In+8.9pp56.7%

59.0%1st Serve Won+3.0pp62.0%

44.8%2nd Serve Won—44.9%

0.9Aces / Match+1.12.0

2.7Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer4.0

Return · 0–1

40.3%Return Pts Won+7.2pp47.5%

Pressure · 1–1

44.9%Break Pts Converted+2.5pp47.4%

63.0%Break Pts Saved+15.0pp48.0%

Points · 0–1

47.5%Total Pts Won+3.6pp51.1%