ChinaNingbo - ChinaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Tianhui Zhang #788China0Harold Mayot #202France2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Mon 26 Oct 2026, 04:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions6–367%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHarold Mayot · 586 places

Tianhui Zhang

China

Zhang reached a career-high No. 549 in September 2025. Reliable public biographical information is limited.

Current ranking: #788
Peak ranking: #549 · 2025
Current age: —
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Harold Mayot

France

Mayot reached career-high No. 103 in October 2024. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface; he was the 2020 Australian Open boys' singles champion and a junior world No. 1.

Current ranking: #202
Peak ranking: #103 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 12:43 · Europe/Bucharest

A top-200 player against a man ranked 788: Mayot should win, but a 5-8 second-set record and five deciders in 13 hard-court matches leave Zhang room to hang around.

Zhang at 8.5 to win, 5.25 to take the opening set and three sets or more at 3.3 all offer more than those prices suggest. Mayot at 1.07 and 1.30 for a 2-0 win ask for more than the evidence supports.

Context

Mayot's first-set record is the sharpest part of his recent form; his second-set numbers are the softest.
Early breaks have come easily for Mayot, but holding that level has not: he lost the second set in eight of 13 matches. That gives Zhang a route to stay in the match even after a slow start, and it argues against expecting a quick two-set finish.
- Mayot won 10 of 13 first sets and 5 of 13 second sets in completed hard-court matches, 11 Sep-17 Oct 2026
- First-set games for Mayot: 5.46 won, 4.46 lost per match; second set: 4.08 won, 5.08 lost
- Five of those 13 matches went to three sets (four 2-1 wins, one 1-2 loss)
One result against a top-110 opponent says more about Mayot's level than his 9-4 record alone.
De Jong sat roughly 100 places above Mayot and the match still went Mayot's way over three sets, inside the same window as the rest of his recent form. It is a single result rather than a trend, but it shows he can hold his level against better-ranked opposition than Zhang. The three-set finish also fits his pattern of strong starts and longer matches.
- Mayot beat Jesper De Jong, ranked 102, 6-3 4-6 7-5 on hard court, 25 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot has played at a clearly higher level against stronger opposition and starts matches well, while Zhang's recent wins came mostly against much lower-ranked players.
- Mayot ranked 202 vs Zhang 788
- Mayot 9-4 on hard in tracked matches; Zhang 8-5
- Mayot won 10 of 13 first sets on hard; Zhang 8 of 13
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHarold MayotEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's wins are rarely blowouts of more than four games, and Zhang has kept several recent matches within that range.
- Zhang game margins in recent matches: -5, -8, -4, +6, +3, +4
- Mayot margins: -5, 0, +5, -5, +3, +5
- Mayot's two-set wins came by 5 games each time
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostTianhui Zhang +4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average above the line, and Mayot's match pattern frequently extends into a deciding set.
- Mayot average 23.5 total games per hard-court match
- Zhang average 22.4 total games per hard-court match
- Mayot went three sets in five of 13 matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two first-set averages sit either side of the line, with Mayot's slightly above, pointing to a marginally over outcome.
- Mayot first-set total games average 9.92 on hard
- Zhang first-set total games average 9.46 on hard
- Mayot two first-set tiebreaks in 13 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's first-set record is the strongest part of his recent form, and he wins more first-set games than he loses.
- Mayot 10 first-set wins from 13 hard-court matches
- Zhang 8 first-set wins from 13 hard-court matches
- Mayot set1 games average 5.46 won vs 4.46 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHarold MayotEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results make up the majority of both players' recent completed matches.
- Mayot totalSets average 2.38 on hard
- Zhang totalSets average 2.31 on hard
- Mayot five 2-0 wins and three 0-2 losses in 13 matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is much closer than the first, but Mayot's overall superiority still gives him the larger share.
- Mayot 5 second-set wins from 13 hard-court matches
- Zhang 6 second-set wins and 7 losses on hard
- Mayot set2 games average 4.08 won vs 5.08 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHarold MayotEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of both players' recent matches finished without a tiebreak, often with a clear winner.
- Mayot had a tiebreak in 3 of 13 hard-court matches
- Zhang had a tiebreak in 5 of 13 hard-court matches
- Mayot five 2-0 wins with only two first-set tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%

Tianhui Zhang

8W 7L

6-2 7-6(1)#85Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 6-0#217Chun Hsin Tseng

5-7 6-2 6-4#734Rigele Te

6-2 6-4#435Enzo Aguiard

6-4 4-6 6-3#1701Lingxi Zhao

6-3 7-6(3)#879Miles Jones

6-1 7-6(3)#417Kaichi Uchida

7-6(3) 6-4#327Petr Bar Biryukov

6-4 6-2—Stefan Storch

2-6 7-6(6) 6-4#890Qian Sun

6-1 6-1#879Miles Jones

7-5 6-4#841Joshua Charlton

6-3 4-1 ret.—Masaki Ishikawa

7-5 2-1 ret.#534Fitriadi M Rifqi

6-3 2-6 6-4#851Grigoriy Lomakin

Harold Mayot

10W 5L

7-6(5) 6-2#149Gabriel Diallo

3-6 6-2 2-0 ret.#152Clement Chidekh

6-4 2-6 6-4#169Tristan Schoolkate

6-3 7-5#415Niels Visker

6-3 7-5#69Titouan Droguet

5-7 6-2 4-2 ret.#268Murphy Cassone

6-3 4-6 7-5#102Jesper De Jong

6-4 6-3#209Edas Butvilas

6-4 2-6 7-6(2)#415Justin Boulais

4-6 6-3 7-5#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-3 6-3#169Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 6-4#152Clement Chidekh

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#158Clement Tabur

6-1 6-3#256Max Basing

6-4 6-2#360Dimitar Kuzmanov

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TZTianhui ZhangZhang

Last 15

1–7

9 core stats · 1 even

Harold MayotMayotHM

Harold Mayot carries the stronger recent form — Tianhui Zhang's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.6%+7.2pp69.8%

1st Serve Won70.1%+0.9pp71.0%

2nd Serve Won51.4%—51.0%

Aces / Match2.9+1.44.3

Double Faults / Match2.71.5 fewer1.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won32.5%+5.7pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted33.3%+6.1pp39.4%

Break Pts Saved57.3%+2.1pp55.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.2%+2.7pp50.9%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

62.6%1st Serve In+7.2pp69.8%

70.1%1st Serve Won+0.9pp71.0%

51.4%2nd Serve Won—51.0%

2.9Aces / Match+1.44.3

2.7Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer1.2

Return · 0–1

32.5%Return Pts Won+5.7pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–1

33.3%Break Pts Converted+6.1pp39.4%

57.3%Break Pts Saved+2.1pp55.2%

Points · 0–1

48.2%Total Pts Won+2.7pp50.9%