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Predictions graded

Spencer Johnson #432United States1Tomasz Berkieta #645Poland2

Sets 6-3 · 5-7 · 2-6Mon 26 Oct 2026, 18:15 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions3–633%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSpencer Johnson · 213 places

Spencer Johnson

United States

Reliable public profile information is limited; ATP currently has no bio. The provided snapshot lists No. 524, while Lexington qualifying used No. 529 for seeding, and he qualified into the main draw.

Current ranking: #432
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Tomasz Berkieta

Poland

Berkieta reached a career-high No. 479 on April 20, 2026. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #645
Peak ranking: #479 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 03:17 · Europe/Bucharest

The record points to Spencer Johnson in this third qualifying round, but the quoted prices do not follow: 1.29 on him asks far more than his hard-court numbers support.

Berkieta's serve — 9.4 aces a match on this surface — keeps the upset live. Three prices offer something: Berkieta at 3.3 for the match and at 2.9 in each of the first two sets.

Context

Berkieta is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand whose first serve has produced noticeably more aces on hard courts of late.
The ace count is his clearest route to holding serve, and it gives the upset case real weight. The double faults cut the other way: at 6.0 per match he hands over free points in a format where one loose service game can settle a set. Five matches is a small base, so treat the spike as a hint rather than a settled rate.
- Five current-surface hard matches, 3 Aug–25 Oct 2026: 47 aces (9.4 per match), 30 double faults (6.0 per match), 76% first-serve points won (152 of 200).
- Full 15-match sample: 86 aces (5.7 per match), 70 double faults (4.7 per match), 72.7% first-serve points won (386 of 531).
One shared opponent across two different events is thin evidence, and nothing here suggests Johnson's level has dropped for good. What it does show is that Berkieta's most recent completed match ended in a straight-sets win while Johnson's ended in a three-set loss. It is a form note rather than a projection.
- Berkieta d. Erik Arutiunian (ranked 588) 6-2 7-5 in a completed indoor hard-court match on 25 October 2026, a two-set win with 13 games to 7.
He has gone the distance six times in 15 hard-court matches, so a third set is the exception in his recent record rather than the rule. Berkieta's five-match hard sample shows a similar lean, four of five in straight sets. A short match does not by itself favour either player; it describes how often these two have finished quickly.
- Set scorelines across 15 completed hard-court matches, 21 Jul–18 Oct 2026: 2-0 five times, 0-2 four times, 2-1 three times, 1-2 three times.
- Average 24.3 total games per match across the same 15-match sample; eight of the 15 included a tiebreak.
Turning chances into breaks is the clearest difference between the two records: Berkieta converts 25.5% (27 of 106) across his 15-match sample, so a similar volume of opportunities has produced far fewer breaks. That edge is part of why Johnson is the likelier winner. It also frames the risk on Berkieta: he can create chances and fail to take them.
- 37 of 88 break points converted (42%) and 35 of 62 saved (56.5%) across 15 completed hard-court matches, 21 Jul–18 Oct 2026.
- Total points won 51.5% (1089 of 2114) across the same 15-match sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Johnson has the steadier serve and return numbers and better break-point results over a larger hard-court sample.
- Johnson is 8-7 on hard with 51.5% total points won; Berkieta is 2-3 on current hard and 48.8% overall total points.
- Johnson converts 42% of break points and saves 56.5%; Berkieta converts 25.5% and saves 50.7%.
- Johnson has won 52.8% of hard sets; Berkieta has won 45.5% of current-surface sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSpencer JohnsonEstimated chance59%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Johnson's first sets often go beyond nine games, though Berkieta's smaller sample is shorter.
- Johnson's first sets average 10.2 total games with five tiebreaks in 15.
- Berkieta's first sets average 9.6 total games with no tiebreaks in five.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets sit near the 10-game mark, with Berkieta's recent hard matches slightly longer.
- Johnson's second sets average 10.0 total games with four tiebreaks in 15.
- Berkieta's second sets average 10.4 total games with one tiebreak in five.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Johnson's matches tend to run just above the line, but Berkieta's shorter hard matches pull the combined estimate toward a near-even split.
- Johnson's hard matches average 24.3 total games; Berkieta's current hard matches average 22.6.
- Johnson has played six three-set matches in 15; Berkieta has played one in five.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have mostly avoided a third set in their hard-court matches, especially Berkieta in his small sample.
- Johnson has finished 9 of 15 hard matches in straight sets.
- Berkieta has finished 4 of 5 current-surface matches in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Johnson's second-set record is similar to his first-set record, and his return numbers give him a slight advantage.
- Johnson is 8-7 in second sets on hard; Berkieta is 3-2.
- Johnson averages 5.27 second-set games won to 4.73 lost; Berkieta is 5.2 to 5.2.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostSpencer JohnsonEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Johnson has won more first sets over a larger hard-court sample and starts with the stronger overall record.
- Johnson is 8-7 in first sets on hard; Berkieta is 2-3.
- Johnson averages 5.53 first-set games won to 4.67 lost; Berkieta is 4.8 to 4.8.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSpencer JohnsonEstimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Berkieta's serve is the main ace source, and his current hard-court average pushes the combined total toward the line.
- Johnson averages 5.5 aces per hard match.
- Berkieta averages 9.4 aces in five current-surface matches but 5.7 overall.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Berkieta's double-fault rate is the main driver, and Johnson's low count still leaves room for the total to pass 7.5.
- Johnson averages 3.0 double faults per hard match.
- Berkieta averages 6.0 in five current-surface matches but 4.7 overall.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' serve numbers are strong enough to keep sets close, and Johnson's matches often include a tiebreak.
- Johnson has had a tiebreak in 8 of 15 hard matches.
- Berkieta has had a tiebreak in 2 of 5 current-surface matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance52%

Spencer Johnson

8W 7L

7-5 1-6 7-5#588Erik Arutiunian

6-7(5) 6-2 6-2#283Alastair Gray

7-6(4) 6-1#200Tristan Boyer

6-2 6-4—Jakub Vrba

7-6(3) 6-3—Jan Kobierski

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#588Erik Arutiunian

6-1 6-7(6) 6-1#750Vignesh Gogineni

7-6(5) 4-6 7-6(9)#151Cristian Garin

6-4 6-4#203Andre Ilagan

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#338Andres Martin

6-3 6-0#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-4 6-3#348Moez Echargui

6-1 6-7(4) 7-6(2)#638Ryan Colby

6-1 7-5#756Matthew Forbes

6-2 6-4#92Chak Lam Coleman Wong

Tomasz Berkieta

7W 8L

6-2 7-5#588Erik Arutiunian

6-3 3-6 7-6(1)#720Nicolas Arseneault

6-4 6-2#684Roger Pascual Ferra

7-5 6-4#288Michele Ribecai

6-3 7-6(1)#198Facundo Mena

7-6(6) 6-1#362Norbert Gombos

6-4 6-4#893Dominik Kellovsky

6-4 6-3#524Patrick Zahraj

6-2 6-2#878Iannis Miletich

6-4 6-1#439Oleksii Krutykh

6-3 6-3#642Nikolai Barsukov

7-6(5) 1-6 6-1#826Liam Gavrielides

7-6(4) 7-6(3)#895Vito Tonejc

6-3 6-3—Leyton Rivera

6-1 6-2#808Luca Castagnola

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SJSpencer JohnsonJohnson

Last 15

8–0

9 core stats · 1 even

Tomasz BerkietaBerkietaTB

Spencer Johnson carries the stronger recent form — Tomasz Berkieta's route runs through aces / match.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In63.0%+8.8pp54.2%

1st Serve Won74.1%+1.4pp72.7%

2nd Serve Won50.6%+1.8pp48.8%

Aces / Match5.5—5.7

Double Faults / Match3.01.7 fewer4.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won37.9%+0.8pp37.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted42.0%+16.5pp25.5%

Break Pts Saved56.5%+5.8pp50.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.5%+2.7pp48.8%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

63.0%1st Serve In+8.8pp54.2%

74.1%1st Serve Won+1.4pp72.7%

50.6%2nd Serve Won+1.8pp48.8%

5.5Aces / Match—5.7

3.0Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer4.7

Return · 1–0

37.9%Return Pts Won+0.8pp37.1%

Pressure · 2–0

42.0%Break Pts Converted+16.5pp25.5%

56.5%Break Pts Saved+5.8pp50.7%

Points · 1–0

51.5%Total Pts Won+2.7pp48.8%