ChinaNingbo - ChinaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Rigele Te #734China0Mert Alkaya #311Türkiye2

Sets 6-7 · 4-6Mon 26 Oct 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions6–367%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMert Alkaya · 423 places

Rigele Te

China

Te, 28, is the right-hander in this matchup. His career-best ATP singles ranking was No. 395 in October 2018, and the ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #734
Peak ranking: #395 · 2018
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Mert Alkaya

Türkiye

ITF lists Alkaya as 26. Recent ranking sources place his career high around No. 298; no reliable preferred-surface or physical-profile detail was confirmed in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #311
Peak ranking: #298
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 12:43 · Europe/Bucharest

A first-round Challenger match in Ningbo where the ranking gap (311 to 734) favours Alkaya but the serve numbers keep Te live, and the two have never met.

Alkaya's return game makes him the narrow favourite in a tight match. Te at 2.6 is the one price worth taking; Alkaya at 1.5 asks too much for a 55% favourite.

Context

Te lost the opening set and still won, the standout result in a run that also included straight-set defeats by Arthur Gea (No. 44) and Ilia Simakin (No. 143).
That win is the clearest sign Te's level can trouble a higher-ranked opponent, even if the ranking puts him well below Alkaya. It is one match, not a trend, and his three-set losses to Hewitt and Tomic show both competitiveness and a habit of falling just short. Alkaya remains the pick, but not by the margin the rankings imply.
- 5 October 2026 hard-court win over Adam Walton (No. 97): 5-7 6-3 6-4.
- Walton's ranking of 97 is taken from the same match record; the match was completed, not a retirement.
Alkaya's 8-7 record in that window contains only two three-set wins, so his matches tend to resolve quickly one way or the other.
Alkaya wins cleanly when he wins and loses cleanly when he does not, which makes a two-set finish the likelier shape of this first-round match. Te's own record points the same way, with nine of his 14 hard-court matches finishing in straight sets, though five went the distance. A third set is possible but not the expected pattern.
- 4 August to 19 October 2026: 15 completed hard-court matches with scorelines of 2-0 in six, 2-1 in two, 0-2 in six and 1-2 in one.
- Six of Alkaya's eight wins in that window were straight-set wins.
For Ningbo, Alkaya is listed at No. 311 and Te at No. 734, with no prior meeting recorded. That makes this their first documented head-to-head and frames Te as facing the higher-ranked entrant. The ranking gap and blank head-to-head do not describe either player's current availability or tournament-specific performance.
- Alkaya was listed at No. 311 and Te at No. 734 for Ningbo, with no previous meeting recorded.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 12:41 · Europe/BucharestMatchstatmatchstat.com · 25 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Alkaya returns serve far more effectively and holds a clear ranking edge, giving him the narrow upper hand in a close match.
- Ranked 311 versus 734 for Rigele Te
- Hard-court return points won 40.8% vs Te's 34.0%
- Total points won 51.4% vs 50.5% over the hard-court window
- Hard-court record 8-7 in the last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMert AlkayaEstimated chance55%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With the two players' game-winning rates nearly equal, a 2.5-game head start covers the large majority of Te's results.
- Te hard-court games won 50.9% aggregate
- Alkaya hard-court games won 49.7% aggregate
- Te's recent hard margins: -1, -7, +3, -7, -3
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostRigele Te +2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The aggregate game rates are almost identical, so a 1.5-game cushion covers most of Te's likely outcomes.
- Te hard-court games won 50.9% vs Alkaya 49.7%
- Te's recent five hard matches summed to -15 games
- Alkaya's recent six hard matches summed to +11 games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostRigele Te +1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Te's matches run long and a competitive two- or three-set match should push the total past 21.5.
- Te's hard-court matches average 22.9 total games
- Alkaya's average is 19.9 but skewed by low-ranked opponents
- Both average between 2.2 and 2.4 sets per match
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance53%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players usually finish within two sets, and the service numbers reduce the chance of a long grind.
- Alkaya 12 of 15 hard matches in straight sets
- Te 9 of 14 in straight sets
- Combined two-set rate about 72%
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets are essentially even, but Alkaya's return edge gives him a slight lean.
- Alkaya set1 record 7-8 on hard
- Te set1 record 7-7
- Alkaya set1 games average 4.47 each way
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMert AlkayaEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets are closely matched but Alkaya's overall match edge gives him a slim lean.
- Alkaya set2 record 8-7 on hard
- Te set2 record 8-6
- Alkaya set2 games average 4.53 won to 4.73 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMert AlkayaEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks are rare in both players' recent hard-court matches, so no-breaker is the strong lean.
- Te: 3 of 14 hard matches with a tiebreak
- Alkaya: 2 of 15 hard matches with a tiebreak
- Combined tiebreak rate about 17% of matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate sits just under the line and short matches reduce total service games.
- Te 8.5 aces per match
- Alkaya 6.5 aces per match
- Both players' recent matches often end in two sets
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 15.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault rates sit just above the line across the hard-court window.
- Te 2.5 double faults per match
- Alkaya 2.2 double faults per match
- Combined roughly 4.7 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Rigele Te

7W 8L

4-6 6-4 7-6(11)#324Cruz Hewitt

6-3 6-2#143Ilia Simakin

5-7 6-3 6-4#97Adam Walton

6-2 6-3#44Arthur Gea

6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#180Bernard Tomic

6-1 7-6(1)#24Casper Ruud

7-6(5) 6-2#215Rio Noguchi

5-7 6-2 6-4#788Tianhui Zhang

6-1 6-4#595Chase Ferguson

6-4 6-3#841Joshua Charlton

6-0 6-4—Xirui Han

6-4 6-1—Anmar Faleh Alhogbani

6-1 6-4#613Isaac Becroft

6-4 6-4—Daniil Sarksian

6-3 3-6 7-5#305Oliver Crawford

Mert Alkaya

8W 7L

6-4 3-6 6-1#203Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-1#250Matthew Dellavedova

2-6 6-3 6-4#537Nino Ehrenschneider

6-3 6-4—Yan Cheng Chen

6-0 6-1#971Ko Suzuki

6-1 7-5#613Isaac Becroft

6-1 6-0#21Francisco Cerundolo

6-2 6-4#50Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-4 7-5#256Max Basing

6-3 4-6 6-2#377Tiago Torres

7-6(5) 6-3#431Khumoun Sultanov

6-3 6-4#526Beibit Zhukayev

6-2 6-4#671Sidharth Rawat

6-3 6-2#441Kenta Miyoshi

7-6(2) 6-4#581Saba Purtseladze

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RTRigele TeTe

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Mert AlkayaAlkayaMA

Rigele Te carries the stronger recent form — Mert Alkaya's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In14/15 · 13/1560.3%+4.3pp56.0%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 13/1574.9%+5.1pp69.8%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 13/1553.1%+2.8pp50.3%

Aces / Match14/15 · 13/158.5+2.06.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 13/152.50.3 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 13/1534.0%+6.8pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 13/1540.3%+9.7pp50.0%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 13/1564.2%+7.9pp56.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 13/1550.5%+0.9pp51.4%

Serve · 4–1

60.3%1st Serve In14/15 · 13/15+4.3pp56.0%

74.9%1st Serve Won14/15 · 13/15+5.1pp69.8%

53.1%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 13/15+2.8pp50.3%

8.5Aces / Match14/15 · 13/15+2.06.5

2.5Double Faults / Match14/15 · 13/150.3 fewer2.2

Return · 0–1

34.0%Return Pts Won14/15 · 13/15+6.8pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

40.3%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 13/15+9.7pp50.0%

64.2%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 13/15+7.9pp56.3%

Points · 0–1

50.5%Total Pts Won14/15 · 13/15+0.9pp51.4%