United StatesSioux Falls - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Ozan Baris #402United States1James Kent Trotter #551Japan2

Sets 6-7 · 7-6 · 5-7Mon 26 Oct 2026, 21:00 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions1–811%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOzan Baris · 149 places

Ozan Baris

United States

The 22-year-old American is right-handed and 185 cm tall. His supplied current ranking of No. 486 matches the career high listed by Sofascore.

Current ranking: #402
Peak ranking: #486
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

James Kent Trotter

Japan

Trotter, 27, is right-handed and 183 cm. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 170 on 21 April 2025.

Current ranking: #551
Peak ranking: #170 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 06:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Two qualifiers separated by little more than ranking: Baris is 402 but 8-7 on hard, Trotter is 551 but 9-5.

Trotter has also won 9 of 14 opening sets, which makes the first set the interesting part of this match. Trotter to win that set at 2 offers something; Baris to win the match at 1.73 asks more than his recent record justifies.

Context

Trotter's advantage is concentrated in the opening set rather than spread across the whole match.
The 14-match sample runs from 27 July to 25 October 2026, so it covers his whole recent block on the surface. Winning nine of 14 opening sets means he has usually been ahead early in best-of-three matches. Only one of those sets reached a tiebreak, so these are sets decided by a single break rather than by lopsided scoring.
- Won 9 of 14 first sets in tracked hard-court matches between 27 July and 25 October 2026
- Averaged 5.2 games won and 4.1 games lost in first sets across those 14 matches
- One first-set tiebreak recorded in the 14-match sample
He lands 60.2% of first serves and wins 71.4% of first-serve points, so the serve itself holds up across a 15-match sample from 1 August to 25 October 2026. The gap is in the scoring positions: a third of break points taken and about half saved leaves matches hanging on a handful of games. In sets decided by one break, that conversion rate separates a fast start from an early deficit.
- Converted 35 of 101 break points (34.7%) over 15 hard-court matches, 1 August to 25 October 2026
- Saved 40 of 77 break points faced (51.9%) across the same 15 matches
- 60.2% first serves in and 71.4% of first-serve points won over those 15 matches
The defeat came against an opponent ranked well below his own 402, which shows how far his level has moved inside a 15-match sample stretching from 1 August. One result does not define a three-month block, and it arrived less than a week before this qualifying round. Against a player who has won nine of his last 14 opening sets, a repeat would leave Baris chasing the match from the first changeover.
- Lost 1-6 2-6 to Cosme Rolland De Ravel, ranked 781, on 20 October 2026
- Won three games across the two sets (1-6, 2-6)
- One of 15 tracked hard-court matches dating from 1 August 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Ozan Baris

1.73fair 1.96

BetBugs 51% · Market 57.8%

−6.8ppshort

Baris holds the ranking edge and an even points split, but Trotter's better win rate keeps this close.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.73
The read
Baris holds the ranking edge and an even points split, but Trotter's better win rate keeps this close.
- Baris hard-court last 15: 8-7, 50.6% total points won, 49.2% games won
- Trotter hard-court last 14: 9-5, but no serve or return metrics supplied
- Baris ranked 402; Trotter ranked 551
- Baris lost his most recent completed hard match 1-6 2-6 to a lower-ranked opponent, then won 6-3 6-4 on the same day before this event
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOzan BarisEstimated chance51%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average fewer than ten games, with very few tiebreaks.
- Baris first-set average total games 8.53
- Trotter first-set average total games 9.36
- One first-set tiebreak between the two samples combined
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set totals for both players sit just under ten games with no tiebreaks recorded.
- Baris second-set average total games 8.87
- Trotter second-set average total games 9.07
- No second-set tiebreaks recorded in either sample
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' average match length sits just below the line, helped by a high straight-set rate.
- Baris average total games 21.1 over 15 hard matches
- Trotter average total games 21.1 over 14 hard matches
- 63% of combined matches finished in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches end in straight sets about two times in three.
- Baris straight-set results: 9 of 15 matches (4 wins 2-0, 5 losses 0-2)
- Trotter straight-set results: 10 of 14 matches (7 wins 2-0, 3 losses 0-2)
- Combined 19 of 29 tracked hard matches finished in two sets
- Average sets per match: 2.40 for Baris, 2.29 for Trotter
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Trotter starts sets better on this surface by both win count and game margin.
- Trotter won 9 of 14 first sets on hard, averaging 5.2 games to 4.1
- Baris lost 9 of 15 first sets, averaging 3.9 games to 4.7
- Baris has lost his opening set in three of his last six completed matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJames Kent TrotterEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Trotter's second-set game margin is positive while Baris's is essentially level.
- Trotter won 9 of 14 second sets, averaging 4.9 games to 4.1
- Baris won 8 of 15 second sets, averaging 4.5 games to 4.4
- Neither player has a second-set tiebreak in their tracked hard matches
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostJames Kent TrotterEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare in both players' recent hard-court matches.
- Baris: one match with a tiebreak in 15 hard matches
- Trotter: two matches with a tiebreak in 14 hard matches
- Three of 29 combined matches contained a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance68%

Prediction history

Ozan Baris: 3/5 recent winner projections matched

3 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Ozan Baris matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Ozan Baris5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

7 Jul·Newport - USA

#696Ozan Baris0-2#330Tyler Zink

BetBugsOzan Baris to win·58%

Missed

7 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#696Ozan Baris0-2#330Tyler Zink

Ozan Baris to win

58%probability

Tyler Zink won

Missed

4 Jul·Cary - USA

#895Timo Legout2-0#696Ozan Baris

BetBugsOzan Baris to win·62%

Missed

4 Jul 2026

Cary - USA

#895Timo Legout2-0#696Ozan Baris

Ozan Baris to win

62%probability

Timo Legout won

Missed

2 Jul·Cary - USA

#502Blake Ellis0-2#696Ozan Baris

BetBugsOzan Baris to win·62%

Matched

2 Jul 2026

Cary - USA

#502Blake Ellis0-2#696Ozan Baris

Ozan Baris to win

62%probability

Ozan Baris won

Matched

1 Jul·Cary - USA

#696Ozan Baris2-1#197Juan Pablo Ficovich

BetBugsOzan Baris to win·58%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

Cary - USA

#696Ozan Baris2-1#197Juan Pablo Ficovich

Ozan Baris to win

58%probability

Ozan Baris won

Matched

29 Jun·Cary - USA

#708Ozan Baris2-0#420James Kent Trotter

BetBugsOzan Baris to win·58%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

Cary - USA

#708Ozan Baris2-0#420James Kent Trotter

Ozan Baris to win

58%probability

Ozan Baris won

Matched

Previous match context available

Ozan Baris

8W 7L

6-3 6-4#595Hunter Heck

6-1 6-2#781Cosme Rolland De Ravel

7-6(4) 0-6 6-3#208Braden Shick

6-1 6-3#266Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

1-6 6-3 6-4#696Alex Rybakov

6-1 6-2#589Shunsuke Mitsui

6-4 4-6 6-4#462Evan Zhu

6-4 4-6 6-2#875Lorenzo Claverie

6-3 6-4—Nikita Filin

6-2 1-6 6-3#874Luca Pow

6-1 6-3—Mitchell Sheldon

6-0 6-2#209Edas Butvilas

6-4 7-5#233Liam Broady

6-4 6-2#750Vignesh Gogineni

2-6 6-3 6-4#333Johannus Monday

James Kent Trotter

9W 6L

4-6 6-3 6-4#474Trevor Svajda

1-6 6-4 6-3#542Gavin Young

6-3 6-2#278Stefan Kozlov

6-3 6-3#512Li Tu

7-5 7-6(4)—Alexander Okonkwo

6-2 6-3#405Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-4 6-1#135Federico Cina

6-3 6-2#685Thomas Fancutt

6-1 6-0—Ziyu Liu

6-7(4) 6-3 4-0 ret.#405Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-4 7-5#287Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-3 6-4#448Jie Cui

3-6 6-1 6-3#436Tyler Zink

6-3 6-4#242Hayato Matsuoka

6-7(4) 6-3 6-3—Mikael Arseneault

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OBOzan BarisBaris

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

James Kent TrotterTrotterJT

James Kent Trotter carries the stronger recent form — Ozan Baris's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.2%+2.2pp58.0%

1st Serve Won71.4%+2.7pp74.1%

2nd Serve Won52.0%—52.1%

Aces / Match3.5+2.86.3

Double Faults / Match2.01.3 fewer3.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won38.7%—38.8%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted34.7%+6.6pp41.3%

Break Pts Saved51.9%+9.4pp61.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.6%+1.3pp51.9%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

60.2%1st Serve In+2.2pp58.0%

71.4%1st Serve Won+2.7pp74.1%

52.0%2nd Serve Won—52.1%

3.5Aces / Match+2.86.3

2.0Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer3.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

38.7%Return Pts Won—38.8%

Pressure · 0–2

34.7%Break Pts Converted+6.6pp41.3%

51.9%Break Pts Saved+9.4pp61.3%

Points · 0–1

50.6%Total Pts Won+1.3pp51.9%